For the second time in two months, talks between Pakistan and India aimed at resolving the water dispute between the two countries have failed to produce a breakthrough. The World Bank, which hosted the talks in Washington DC, has put out a statement saying an agreement was not reached at the conclusion of the talks. The heart of the disagreement is India’s proposal to construct the Kishanganga and Ratle dams, which Pakistan claims would violate the Indus Waters Treaty by stopping the adequate flow of water from the Neelum and Chenab Rivers. India, however, maintains that is permitted to construct hydroelectric power facilities on these rivers. While both sides have been praised by the World Bank for this amicability and the spirit of “goodwill and cooperation” they have both shown, the reality is that a resolution is unlikely for both political and technical reasons. The political fault lies mainly with India. Hard-line Narendra Modi had responded to the Uri camp attack by threatening to cut off the supply of Pakistan’s water, even though it still hasn’t been able to provide even a shred of evidence that Pakistan had any involvement in the attack. In such an atmosphere, where India has shown a willingness to abandon the Indus Waters Treaty and essentially weaponise its water, Pakistan is in no position to compromise.
The technical problem is that since the Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960, the situation on the ground has changed. As the reality of climate change sets in, Pakistan is facing a bleak future as a water-insecure country. India’s rapid industrialisation has increased its energy needs, which has led to a large-scale project of constructing dams. In an ideal world, the treaty would be renegotiated and updated. But the situation currently is as far from ideal as possible. India is so opposed to the very idea of bilateral talks with Pakistan that it has taken every opportunity to point out that it has only taken part in the negotiations in Washington because they are being conducted under the auspices of the World Bank. The best that can be hoped for now is that the talks continue. Last year, Pakistan had started the process of taking the matter to the Court of Arbitration while India requested the appointment of a neutral expert. The World Bank paused both processes because it was worried that should the Court of Arbitration and the neutral expert reach different decisions it could cause the Indus Waters Treaty to unravel. Imperfect though it may be, salvaging the treaty and slowly advancing talks may be the only realistic option remaining.