This year Groundhog Day 2026 holds a significant importance as much of the United States is experiencing harsh winter in the form of severe snow storms.
Given the intensity and protracted nature of winters in the US, all eyes have turned to Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction related to weather on Monday.
Groundhog is a traditional holiday celebrated every year on February 2, mainly in the United States and Canada.
Every February 2, crowds gather in the small Pennsylvania town of Punxsutawney to await a verdict from America’s one of the most famous forecasters: Punxsutawney Phil.
Punxsutawney Phil is a groundhog who is the central figure of the annual Groundhog day. On this highly-anticipated day, the Phil’s handlers, which is a ceremonial group called the Inner circle, watch the activity of Phil.
If the groundhog sees his shadow while emerging from his stump, the folklore says winter will last for 6 more weeks and if not, it means the advent of an early spring.
The first recorded Groundhog Day event in Punxsutawney was 1887.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, since the tradition started over 130 years ago, Punxsutawney Phil has forecasted a long winter 108 times and an early spring 21 times.
As reported by CBS News, there are 10 years where no one recorded the predictions of Phil, even the local experts are not sure where Phil was doing during those winters.
Between 2013 and 2023, the groundhog watched his shadow seven times. Surprisingly, of those seven times, he was correct only one time.
Stormfax Almanac's data revealed that he is only right about 30 percent of the time.
Similarly, A 10-year study by NOAA weather experts found he was right only 40% of the time. If talking about average, the groundhog predictions were 30 percent accurate over the past decade, which is poorer than random chance for long-term weather forecasting.
According to Tim Roche, a meteorologist at Weather Underground, “If Punxsutawney Phil is right 39% of the time, that's much, much worse than a climatological prediction.”
"Even if you flip a coin, you'll still be right close to half of the time. That's a 50% percent accuracy rate. So you'll be better off flipping a coin than going by the groundhog's predictions,” Roche added.
A 2021 study published in Weather, Climate, and Society analysed 33 different groundhogs and concluded their predictions are “no better than chance.”
So, the climate scientists and meteorologists consider this tradition a part of folklore, not related to weather science but to seasonal changes.