The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between Pakistan and India is an example of how even the fiercest rivals can cooperate on essential matters. Since 1960, the treaty has faced multiple wars, short-lived periods of harmony and political rifts. After the recent May conflict between Pakistan and India, this example of cooperation has been fractured. According to the ‘Ecological Threat Report 2025’, released recently by a Sydney-based think tank, this treaty is now facing threats and if it collapses, it could endanger South Asia’s fragile peace besides hitting Pakistan’s water security. The report highlights how India’s growing control over upstream dam operations enables it to influence the timing and volume of Indus River flows. While New Delhi cannot completely block the river, it did try to weaponise the treaty after the May conflict. This, the report says, should ring alarm bells for a country where 80 per cent of irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus Basin. With such dependency, even minor disruptions can prove devastating.
Pakistan’s problem is its limited water storage, barely enough for 30 days of Indus flow. Any sudden variation in release, particularly during critical sowing or harvesting seasons, can cripple its agricultural output and threaten food security. In May, Indian authorities carried out ‘reservoir flushing’, forbidden under the treaty, without prior notification because of which sections of the Chenab in Pakistan’s Punjab ran dry for a few days, as India’s dam gates were shut. While it is tempting to blame our archrival and call it out on its political mischiefs, it is essential to also realise that Pakistan has to fix its house too to ensure that a rogue neighbour’s ill-thought-out plans do not halt life here. Diplomacy is a great tool, but India has shown that it is not interested in talks. For Pakistan to move ahead, it is important that it urgently expands its storage capacity, modernises irrigation and adopts better water governance.
It is also vital for our neighbour to understand that there is a world beyond social media hashtags. If water is weaponised, the consequences will be felt in India too. Recent climatic events have shown us that droughts, floods and ecological collapse are not limited by borders. The South Asian region has seen apocalyptic climatic events in recent years. Smog in both Indian Punjab and here carries the same risks. Similarly, floods in India were as fierce as they were here, sweeping away entire villages. If India is not ready to fix its relations with Pakistan, it should still open some space for talks so that the two countries can work together to reduce environmental risks. The arsenal of military weapons will be useless if both countries cannot provide a healthy environment to their citizens.