“Right now, there are changes - the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years - and we are the ones driving these changes together”, President Xi said in 2023. These changes are complex and happening rapidly. Power centres are shifting. A superpower is losing influence, while another is gaining it. The meeting between President Trump and President Putin highlighted these changes so compellingly that countries are seeking alternative methods and routes to settle their differences or conflicts.
Simultaneously, the changes have triggered realignments, as countries adjust their positions to new realities. Old alliances are cracking and new ones are forming, with Nato as the most notable example. Once, Nato was seen as a strong alliance. The US and European partners celebrated it as a major success and a source of pride. However, in recent years, serious differences have appeared between the US and European allies. President Trump has further escalated the differences.
Besides, friends and foes are shifting their positions. One of the clearest examples is ongoing clash between the US and India. A few months ago, they celebrated the success of their bilateral relations. They were busy signing multidimensional deals across various sectors, including security, AI, space, science and technology and the economy. They were doing everything to strengthen their mutual alliances, such as QUAD. PM Modi was proud to call President Trump a friend.
However, relationship took a shocking turn recently. Now, relationship is in a free fall. President Trump never misses a chance to ridicule India. He is also imposing trade barriers on India, and previously, he sent back large numbers of Indians in chains to India. Additionally, he has been asking American companies to reconsider their investments in India, often using a threatening tone. He refers to India’s economy as a dead economy, even though it is the same economy that many US presidents, including President Trump himself, praised. Experts believe, along with other factors, Pakistan-India war played a major role in deteriorating the US-India relationship.
The Pakistan-India war has also shifted regional and international dynamics. Since Pakistan’s victory, its status has been elevated, and India’s position as a potential rival of China has been weakened. Pakistan’s principled stand in Iran-Israel conflict further strengthened its stance. Besides, engagement with three major powers based on mutual respect is growing. After a pause, the US is aiming to boost economic and investment ties. President Trump announced the US will invest in exploring oil in Pakistan.
However, Pakistan should not be overwhelmed by the victory and the newfound space. It needs to exercise extreme caution in evolving situation. There is no need to create hype about Pakistan-US or US-India relations or Pakistan’s victory. It is common knowledge President Trump has a volatile nature and acts unpredictably. Today, he is praising Pakistan, but tomorrow, he can raise questions about Pakistan’s credibility.
Second, after the defeat, India is undoubtedly in shambles, but we cannot dismiss India outright. If India can control its inflated ego, rationalise its overestimation of its influence, and learn from the defeat and the US attitude. In that case, it can regain a respectable position in Global South. SCO and BRICS’s membership further strengthens this argument. The reconciliation with China, resolving outstanding issues, especially border disputes, and joining initiatives like BRI, will further help India.
Third, unfortunately, India has refused to learn any lesson. Delhi is misreading message of cooperation from China and Russia and considering itself the leader of Global South. Moreover, it insists the war with Pakistan is not over yet. Thus, it poses a threat to regional peace and possibility of starting a new war with Pakistan.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan needs a wise, innovative, smart, assertive and friendly foreign policy to consolidate its gains and strengthen its position on the global stage. Such a policy is essential to rationalise the feeling of victory, better plan to capitalise on emerging opportunities, and tackle challenges properly. It is also needed to rationalise expectations related to strategic location. In this context, there are a few suggestions for consideration.
Pakistan must reassess regional and extra-regional dynamics, mapping out opportunities and challenges while setting aside the notion of victory. It will help Pakistan to rationalise expectations and develop reality-based goals for foreign policy.
Mutually beneficial economic cooperation should be a priority. In the contemporary world, economy has become determining factor for building and sustaining relations. It also aligned with new slogan of Pakistani State: economic security leads to sustainable security. However, Pakistan needs to be wary economic diplomacy has become very erratic and volatile, as evidenced by President Trump’s trade war. Thus, we need to devise a realistic economic engagement framework supported by appropriate shock absorbers.
Geography bestows Pakistan with a strategic position. With the right policies, Pakistan can become a hub for connectivity. We can help landlocked countries in Central Asia and Afghanistan connect with rest of the world, and vice versa. However, Pakistan must understand strategic location or dominance is a relative concept, not an absolute one. Therefore, we should avoid overhyping our strategic value and focus on developing concrete options and opportunities to turn Pakistan into a connectivity hub. The CPEC route and Gwadar Port offer us a great chance to achieve this.
Pakistan should avoid debating a “balanced policy” because no policy can please everyone simultaneously. Instead, a pragmatic approach is needed, considering competition between emerging superpower, China and declining superpower, the US. China is our trusted, steadfast ally who supports us regardless of circumstances. While we have a history with the US, it often acts according to its own interests and has undermined Pakistan and its interests. Therefore, our past relationships with both countries should guide us in shaping our future course of action.
The principles and interests of Pakistan should guide our foreign relations policy, not emotions or social media hype. We must apply indigenous wisdom and avoid blindly following Westphalian model. Before devising policy, we need to conduct a comparative analysis of ideologies of Islamic diplomacy, Chinese diplomacy and liberal diplomacy.
In conclusion, Pakistan should avoid repeating the same mistakes: overestimating its influence in terms of economy, diplomacy and security, and overestimating its market size and importance to the US in countering China. Consequently, India is paying a heavy price. Thus, Pakistan should learn from India’s mistakes and avoid repeating them to avoid facing similar challenges.