Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Even a layperson can attest to the fact they are suffering from its effects. It is impacting every segment of society and the economy, as some of our cities face existential threats due to rising sea levels triggered by climate change. It has raised a question mark over the availability, timing of availability and quality of water, which is a basic ingredient of human life. It has introduced complex challenges to achieving the goal of food self-sufficiency. In recent years, it has triggered migration. The health sector is also facing challenges due to climate factors, and dengue is one of the most prominent examples.
Additionally, climate change-related disasters are common and have serious consequences for the country. In the worst case, they can trigger a security crisis within or between states. That’s why climate change is on the UN Security Council agenda as a threat to global peace.
What should Pakistan do? The clear choice and top priority should be adaptation. Adaptation helps reduce vulnerability by adjusting ecological, social or economic systems to address ongoing crisis or expected impacts of climate change. There are various tools and methods for implementing adaptation policies or plans, which can differ based on the needs. It involves strengthening infrastructure, economic systems, peoples’ capacity and environmental systems to better withstand the impacts of climate change.
Realising the importance of adaptation, Pakistan devised a National Action Plan for Adaptation. It identified six priority areas, including agriculture-water nexus, natural capital (encompassing land, water and air), urban resilience, human capital, disaster risk management and social inclusion, which encompass gender, youth and other relevant groups. On paper, it is an excellent plan, but there is a huge question mark regarding its implementation, and progress on implementation is lagging behind schedule. The country is paying a high price due to a lukewarm approach to implementation.
Let’s start with the example of water. Since the start of 21st century, Pakistan has experienced repeated floods. It was still recovering from the 2022 flood, and in 2025, many areas faced another flood. On the other hand, over the past year, Pakistan has faced a water shortage, which has affected crop yields and production. Economic survey data indicate crops experienced a negative growth rate of -6.25pc, and major crops posted a growth rate of -13.5pc. The issues of water availability and timing are becoming more complex over time.
Moreover, precipitation and availability of water are unequally distributed among the seasons in Pakistan. It is estimated Pakistan receives about 82-84pc water during the three months of monsoon and summer. It further aggravates the situation.
Therefore, the water sector requires urgent attention and action to address flooding and water scarcity. Pakistan must invest in and develop storage facilities like dams. The country currently has very limited water storage capacity. Data shows Pakistan has a storage of 13.7 MAF, which can only serve 30 people in an emergency. Dams will offer multiple benefits, such as reducing flood impacts, ensuring water availability and producing affordable electricity.
Once the Diamer-Bhasha Dam is completed, it will increase storage capacity by 6.4 MAF (currently, Pakistan’s total storage capacity is about 11 MAF). It will generate 4,500 megawatts of cheap electricity and create roughly 16,000 jobs during construction. The dam will also help irrigate 1.2 million acres of land, supporting employment for unskilled workers. Additionally, it will improve food security and supply better inputs for industries like cotton and textiles. In terms of agriculture, climate-smart and climate-compatible agriculture development should be the guiding policies.
For that purpose, Pakistan should invest in creating climate-resilient seeds that can withstand floods, droughts and adapt to changing climate patterns. Second, accelerate R&D efforts to develop climate-resilient animal species that can withstand fluctuations and extreme weather conditions. Third, a drainage system should be built to improve water management, especially in flood-prone areas. Fourth, the most crucial step would be to enhance the capacity of farming community to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Fifth, adopt agricultural practices that have minimal climate impact and produce the lowest GHG emissions.
For the economy, Pakistan should adopt a climate-compatible development model. To do this, it should invest in green energy, which produces lowest GHG emissions. However, the choice of sources should be based on Pakistan’s strengths, cost-effectiveness and sustainability, with minimal impact on people’s livelihoods and national economy. The most viable options are nuclear energy and hydropower.
Pakistan can also explore innovative options, such as climate-compatible education systems, to tackle the issue on a sustainable basis. The construction of a climate-compatible education institute will help tackle multiple challenges. For instance, it will help Pakistan not only to keep its institutions operational but also protect it from financial losses.
Moreover, the green infrastructure of educational institutions, according to principles of climate-compatible theory, will help lower GHG emissions. An additional benefit of climate resilience infrastructure would be that it can be used as a temporary shelter during floods. In flood-prone areas, people have to shift to open spaces. It creates challenges, especially for women and children. Women face problems in maintaining hygiene and improving sanitation facilities. A climate-resilient education system can help mitigate the impact.
Pakistan must develop climate change-resilient educational infrastructure, including schools, colleges and universities. Additionally, work on introducing innovative technologies that can help maintain connectivity during disasters.
Another option is the Spatially Hybrid Urbanisation model, which can help build urban resilience and adapt to climate change. The core of the model is that “Try to work with existing non-urban settlements and convert them into urban centres by maintaining the touch of non-urban characteristics without impacting the surroundings. It will also help slow the migration towards cities and lower pressure on metropolitan areas”. These are only a few suggestions and examples; Pakistan can do much more.
Sadly, Pakistan’s priorities differ, and it is focusing too much on mitigation policies. This policy is inspired by advice and funding from foreign countries and international organisations. These countries and international organisations also invest in creating public buy-in. They provide funding to Pakistani think tanks to promote mitigation, while keeping adaptation on the back burner.
These days, many leading think tanks are running campaigns in favour of renewable energy around the clock. They are promoting solar and wind energy. Under the influence of donors, they ignore, rather than criticise, the hydropower facilities. They oppose construction of dams. Blindly implementing the solar policy has already created numerous problems for Pakistan, as the solar policy does not align with ground realities. Instead of learning any lesson, they are still promoting it.
In conclusion, adaptation should be top priority to combat climate change, not mitigation. Mitigation should be part of climate policy, but not a top priority at this point. Otherwise, we will be unable to tackle the impacts of climate change, and the cost of climate change will continue to escalate, exceeding Pakistan’s capacity. The cost of 2022 flood provides a clear indication of how costs are likely to continue increasing.