The recent escalation between India and Pakistan offered critical insights for analysts and policymakers. One of the most important takeaways for Washington is the strategic risk of disproportionately emphasising its partnership with India while neglecting the need to maintain a balanced engagement with Pakistan. The current inequity risks destabilising the South Asian region.
Despite substantial US investment in India to build it as a counterweight to China, the May 2025 India-Pakistan military confrontation exposed India’s operational and technical limitations. Although Indian military has conventional superiority, it incurred a greater cost of escalation as the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) downed six Indian fighter jets. This setback highlighted India’s key vulnerabilities and raised a critical question: if the Indian military struggled to counter a smaller adversary effectively, would it be able to act as Washington’s frontline actor to deter China – a role the US envisions for India, which New Delhi has been reluctant to embrace?
These developments demonstrate that an ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy overly centred on building India as a counterweight to China has its obstacles. Such an approach does not reflect the complex on-ground dynamics of the region, which came into the limelight during Pakistan’s retaliation to Indian aggression. This requires careful assessment and recalibration of Washington’s expectations related to India, and especially concerning the South Asian region.
First, a more balanced US approach towards South Asia is needed. That would involve a meaningful, broad-based engagement with Pakistan. This would entail deepening cooperation in areas of mutual interest, especially strategic dialogues and cooperation. The revised approach would need to move past the transactional mindset clouded by history and establish a forward-looking, long-term strategic partnership based on respect and shared interests.
The most crucial aspect of such a recalibration would require critical attention to Pakistan’s regional security concerns, especially India’s growing defence capabilities and assertive regional posture. Islamabad sees India-US defence partnerships, intelligence sharing, waiver provision and diplomatic tolerance towards New Delhi as Washington’s favouritism and leniency. This has emboldened India to harden its inflexible posture towards Pakistan further.
Washington’s policies that accord greater weight to New Delhi have led to a sense of strategic marginalisation in Islamabad. This has compelled Pakistan to seek reassurances in its strategic partnership with China. This impacts American influence in the region. Therefore, a more balanced South Asia policy would keep Washington’s role in the region relevant and also maintain its credibility as a stabilising force.
Second, the US must take a more assertive posture to nudge India to engage in sustained, constructive, and comprehensive dialogue with Pakistan with the genuine intention of addressing and resolving long-standing disputes, particularly those related to Kashmir. This would require Washington to move beyond the role of crisis preventer to a central role in addressing core disputes.
Given its influence in Islamabad and New Delhi, the US can play a proactive and influential role in crisis prevention as an effective peace broker in South Asia. The US-brokered ceasefire of May 10 served as a prime example of Washington’s position as a credible intermediary in South Asia, a role that no other global power is positioned to fulfil.
Regional instability primarily stems from risks related to India’s growing military capabilities, coupled with an increasingly ideological posture driven by Hindutva-led anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan mindset. The May 2025 escalation trigger by India’s assumptions and miscalculations highlighted how tensions can spiral. Experts have warned that future conflict between India and Pakistan would be on a larger scale. This makes it imperative for Washington to act now to prevent a larger conflagration.
Washington’s policies that heavily invest in India complicate regional security dynamics. The May 2025 Indo-Pak escalation indicated that, for Washington, strategic rationality demands recognition of India’s limitations and Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns.
The writer is a research analyst in emerging technologies and international security.
She tweets/posts MaheenShafeeq