RIYADH: As Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prepares for his first official visit to the United States in seven years, scheduled for mid-November 2025, the agenda underscores the kingdom’s strategic ambitions for enhanced security guarantees and technological advancements from Washington. However, amid President Donald Trump’s optimistic push for a rapid normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel—potentially by year’s end—the crown prince remains steadfast in linking any such agreement to concrete, irrevocable progress toward Palestinian statehood, a demand that appears increasingly unattainable given Israel’s current political stance, reports New York Times. President Trump, fresh off his role in negotiating a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, has expressed high confidence in achieving another foreign policy milestone. In interviews, including one with Time magazine on 15 October 2025 and another on Fox Business, he claimed to be “very close” to securing Saudi recognition of Israel, suggesting the Gaza conflict’s pause could pave the way for a deal before December. Trump emphasized that wartime conditions previously hindered progress, but with the truce in place, he believes momentum has returned. Yet, Saudi insiders and analysts dismiss this timeline as overly ambitious, labeling it “virtually impossible” without a fundamental shift in Israeli policy.
Ali Shihabi, a prominent Saudi commentator with close ties to the leadership, reiterated that Crown Prince Mohammed, aged 40 and the kingdom’s de facto ruler, conditions normalization on Israel committing to an “irrevocable, major step toward a Palestinian state.” This position is not merely rhetorical; it positions Saudi Arabia as the last major Arab power with leverage to advocate for Palestinian rights. Shihabi argues that a Saudi-Israel accord represents the “only serious leverage left” for Arabs to push for a lasting resolution, aiming to foster “long-elusive regional stability.” Without Palestinian concessions, any deal risks being seen as a betrayal of broader Arab interests, especially amid widespread public outrage over the Gaza war.
The mid-November state visit prioritizes bilateral U.S.-Saudi agreements that could bolster the kingdom’s military and economic prowess. According to U.S. officials speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of negotiations, discussions will center on a mutual defense pact modeled after the recent U.S.-Qatar security agreement. This would provide Saudi Arabia with formal assurances of American protection, though it falls short of the full congressional-ratified treaty the prince has previously sought.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia is pursuing acquisition of the stealthy F-35 fighter jets—the pinnacle of U.S. aviation technology—to modernize its air force. Complementing this is a long-standing interest in a civilian nuclear programme, with Riyadh eager for access to American nuclear technology. These elements were under negotiation during the Biden administration but stalled when Washington conditioned them on Saudi normalization with Israel. The Gaza conflict and ensuing regional backlash further derailed talks, as public sentiment in the Middle East turned sharply against Israel.
For Prince Mohammed, securing these deals—even without immediate Israel ties—would mark a significant victory, enhancing Saudi Arabia’s defense capabilities and energy diversification amid global shifts away from oil dependency.
At the heart of Saudi reluctance lies an unwavering commitment to Palestinian aspirations. A late-2023 poll revealed overwhelming Saudi public opposition to Israel ties, with sentiment only hardening post-Gaza. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition have repeatedly rejected Palestinian statehood, viewing it as a threat to Israeli security.
In essence, while the visit could yield defense and nuclear wins, Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Palestinian statehood as a prerequisite for Israel ties underscores a pragmatic, long-term approach. Trump’s accelerated timeline clashes with Riyadh’s red lines, potentially prolonging the wait for any Abraham Accords expansion. As regional stability hangs in the balance, the crown prince’s strategy prioritizes Saudi sovereignty and Arab solidarity over hasty diplomatic gestures.