[News Analysis] Pakistan’s energy at a crossroads: offshore success, onshore struggle

By Khalid Mustafa
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November 02, 2025
The representational image shows the TransOcean Barents drilling rig, at around 120 km off the coast of Beirut, Lebanon. — Reuters/File

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has taken a bold step towards energy independence by relaunching offshore oil and gas exploration after nearly two decades. On Friday, Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division) announced the results of Offshore Bid Round 2025, awarding 23 out of 40 blocks to investors. However, 17 blocks failed to attract any bids, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges in the country’s energy sector.

The struggle is not new. In September 2025, when 23 onshore blocks were offered, only one bid was received, leaving 22 blocks unclaimed. Sources within the Petroleum Division attributed this to limited promotional outreach and a lack of international engagement, suggesting companies such as OGDCL, PPL and MariEnergies participated more out of obligation than genuine interest.

A senior industry official remarked, “Never in the history of Pakistan’s Petroleum Division bidding has such a stealth operation taken place. No roadshows, no investor engagement — this was a recipe for failure”.

Despite global oil prices falling from $85 to below $65 per barrel, Pakistan still managed to secure bids worth approximately $1 billion, including participation from Türkiye’s national oil company (TPAO). Additional Secretary (Policy) Zafar Abbas emphasised the response was sufficient given the global market uncertainty and reflected continuing international confidence in Pakistan’s offshore energy potential.

The offshore round covered 53,510 square kilometres across the Indus and Makran basins. Successful participants included Pakistan’s national energy companies — OGDCL, PPL, MariEnergies, and Prime Energy — alongside international players, such as TPAO, United Energy, Orient Petroleum and Fatima Petroleum.

During Phase-I, spanning three years, these companies will carry out 4,427 work units for geological and geophysical studies, including advanced seismic data acquisition and interpretation. Depending on early findings, total investment could rise to $750 million to $1 billion.

Officials credit the renewed interest to institutional reforms, including a new Model Production Sharing Agreement (MPSA) and Offshore Petroleum Rules, which provide a transparent and investor-friendly regulatory framework. A recent study by US-based DeGolyer and MacNaughton confirmed significant “yet-to-find” hydrocarbon potential in Pakistan’s offshore basins.

One senior Energy Ministry official noted, “The study reaffirmed what our geologists have long believed — Pakistan’s offshore holds immense untapped potential”.

One of the most symbolic outcomes of the bid round is TPAO’s acquisition of a 25pc stake in Offshore Block-C, marking a milestone in international collaboration and a vote of confidence from a long-standing strategic partner. During Phase-I, exploration companies will focus on mapping geological structures and assessing reservoir potential, with Phase-II involving exploratory drilling in the most promising areas. The government is actively encouraging global oil majors to participate in future rounds, signaling Pakistan’s energy frontier is open for credible international players.

While the offshore round demonstrates renewed potential and international confidence, the onshore licensing round presents a stark contrast. Of the 23 onshore blocks offered across Baluchistan, Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, only MariEnergies submitted a single bid. Experts warn poor outreach, lack of visibility and minimal investor engagement has created a negative perception that could hinder future investment in domestic energy exploration.

Pakistan now stands at a crossroads. The offshore bid round highlights country’s ability to attract international interest and invest in its energy future, while onshore failure underscores urgent need for strategic reforms. Balancing these outcomes will be crucial as Pakistan seeks to reduce its dependency on energy imports and tap into its vast domestic hydrocarbon reserves.