ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is on track to record its highest number of newly detected HIV cases in a single year, with more than 10,000 people already confirmed positive in the first nine months of 2025, officials revealed on Wednesday. They warned that the total could exceed 14,000 by year’s end, surpassing last year’s 13,001 reported cases.
Officials from the federal health ministry said 6,459 new infections were reported by June, but a sharp rise in detections during medical screenings for surgeries, emergency procedures, and visa requirements pushed the tally beyond 10,000 by September — making 2025 the fastest year of HIV case escalation in the country’s history.
They confirmed that most detections were incidental, discovered only when individuals underwent mandatory HIV tests before travelling abroad, prior to surgeries, or when doctors suspected infection. Pakistan still lacks legislation mandating HIV screening for high-risk groups, deported migrants, or sex workers, leaving thousands undiagnosed, untreated, and unknowingly transmitting the virus to others.
Modelling by UNAIDS, WHO, and UNICEF estimates that as many as 40,000 people could contract HIV in Pakistan by the end of 2025, though the majority may never be diagnosed or begin treatment due to the absence of structured screening and surveillance systems.
Recent outbreaks in Mirpurkhas and Taunsa — where dozens of children contracted HIV due to syringe reuse and poor infection control practices — have already shown that the virus is no longer confined to so-called high-risk populations but is now spreading within general families, including mothers and infants.
Experts warn that the steepest rise is being seen among men who have sex with men, with chemsex — sexual activity under the influence of methamphetamine — emerging as a major driver of unprotected encounters. They said that this trend is also fuelling transmission among transgender persons and female sex workers, many of whom are unaware of their HIV status and continue to work without protective protocols.
Another growing source of infection is deported Pakistani workers returning from Gulf states and Europe. Over 50,000 people are deported annually, and senior officials estimate that even if five percent are HIV-positive, around 2,500 infected individuals re-enter the country each year with no screening at airports, no referral to HIV centres, and no treatment.
Officials alleged that some NGOs working with migrant returnees discourage authorities from screening deportees under the pretext of protecting their rights, leaving a major gap in public health surveillance.
Officially, Pakistan estimates that 369,593 people are currently living with HIV, but only 78,734 are registered with HIV treatment centres, and around 55,690 are reported to be on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Programme insiders, however, claim these figures are inflated to satisfy donors and that no more than 20,000 patients are consistently on treatment, while thousands who know their status have either dropped out or never initiated therapy — posing a serious risk of onward transmission.
Experts say Pakistan’s HIV response remains passive, with detection continuing to depend on lab results issued by embassies and surgeons. Public health professionals warn that without the immediate introduction of mandatory screening protocols, enforcement of infection control, and a technically led HIV programme, the country risks allowing a silent epidemic to expand unchecked — with most cases detected only when people are about to travel abroad or enter an operating theatre.