Islamabad : Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Registrar Prof Nasir Iqbal has said that National Poverty Graduation Programme (NPGP) increased income, consumption and welfare scores, with over 50 percent of beneficiary households officially crossing the poverty score threshold and ‘graduating’ from poverty, while nearly 85 percent showed improvements in welfare indicators.
Dr Iqbal was presenting keynote presentation showing results of a 4-year study using Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) at a seminar on “Graduation programme: a State-led asset transfer programme” organised here by PIDE under its Research for Social Transformation and Advancement (RASTA) project. The event was moderated by Dr Faheem Jehangir, Dean (Policy) at PIDE.
The seminar focused on evaluating the medium-term impacts of NPGP, Pakistan’s largest state-led asset transfer programme designed to lift ultra-poor households out of poverty through assets, skills and institutional integration.
He underscored the programme’s role in systemic integration, enabling beneficiaries to obtain CNICs, access formal healthcare and develop a stronger sense of citizenship and connection to the state. However, he cautioned that the programme’s long-term sustainability faces critical challenges.
Vulnerability to climate shocks, as seen during the 2022 floods, left many households falling back into poverty due to the absence of protective mechanisms such as asset insurance or emergency shelters. He also pointed to potential negative trade-offs, including instances where children were withdrawn from school to support family micro-enterprises, undermining long-term human capital development.
Furthermore, scalability remains a challenge, as the intensive programme model reaches only a small fraction of Pakistan’s poor. Outcomes also varied geographically, performing better in Punjab where infrastructure and market access are stronger compared to weaker results in Sindh, he said. He added the report was shared with the Islamic Development Bank, World Bank and GIZ, where it received significant appreciation and recognition. Saeed Uddin, Project Director of NPGP, noted that the positive findings were instrumental in securing new funding from IDB for expansion into 25 additional districts.