KARACHI: The agricultural sector, the backbone of its economy, is facing a critical sustainability crisis caused by a mismatch between regional water resources and farming practices, reveals research agency Gallup Pakistan’s analysis of the Agricultural Census 2024.
The findings highlight vulnerabilities in a system responsible for nearly a fifth of the country’s GDP and employing over a third of its labour force. With water scarcity intensifying due to climate change and population growth, the current model of crop and irrigation choices poses a direct threat to future food security and economic stability, the firm said.
At a national level, the irrigation profile appears relatively balanced. Canal systems, drawing from River Indus and its tributaries, supply water to the largest single share of land (33.74 per cent), followed by groundwater extraction via tube-wells (26.44 per cent). However, at the provincial level, these figures point to an unfavourable situation.
Sindh, for example, is overwhelmingly dependent on canals, with 68.43 per cent of its agriculture reliant on canal, making its economy acutely vulnerable to fluctuations in river flows and inter-provincial water disputes. In stark contrast, arid Balochistan primarily depends on groundwater, with tube-wells accounting for 42.85 per cent of its irrigation, raising grave concerns about the depletion of its aquifers.
Only Punjab, the country’s agricultural heartland, displays a diversified water strategy, with a mix of canals (35.21 per cent), tube-wells (29.47 per cent), and combined systems (25.06 per cent).
The region’s dependence on specific water sources becomes even more challenging because it grows crops that consume large amounts of water. The most alarming trend identified is the concentration of cotton (14.05 per cent nationally) and rice (13.46 per cent) cultivation in Punjab and Sindh. These cash crops are vital for the country’s textile industry and for export earnings but place immense and increasingly unsustainable strain on the Indus Basin water system.
While wheat remains the dominant staple, covering 37.12 per cent of cropped area nationwide, the commercial focus on thirsty crops highlights a critical policy disconnect. Balochistan stands out as an exception, with 12.07 per cent of its land dedicated to less water-intensive fruits and vegetables.
The report calls for a shift in agricultural policy. It recommends modernising irrigation by adopting water-saving technologies and promote crop diversification to reduce dependence on water-intensive crops.