ISLAMABAD: Maximum and minimum temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan are currently 7 to 9 degrees Celsius above normal, triggering an unusually fast rate of snow and glacier melt and pushing Tarbela Reservoir inflows far beyond seasonal averages, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warned on Thursday.
The PMD’s Flood Forecasting Division reported that this persistent and widespread heat anomaly was accelerating glacier melt across the region, with both day and night temperatures remaining well above the climatic norm. The department cautioned that the intensified melt was raising the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events, as higher temperatures caused rapid formation and expansion of glacial lakes.
In the first 10 days of August, Tarbela’s normal Kharif season inflow stands at 36.16 million acre-feet (MAF). This year, however, inflows have already reached 41.8 MAF — 5.64 MAF higher than average — largely due to accelerated melt water runoff from Gilgit-Baltistan’s glaciers. Monitoring data shows the abnormal heat trend spread across Astore, Bunji, Chilas, Gilgit, Gupis, Hunza and Skardu.
Officials noted that above-normal minimum temperatures were preventing glaciers from refreezing at night, compounding the melt rate. They urged federal and provincial authorities to stay on high alert for potential downstream flooding, particularly in communities vulnerable to sudden GLOF incidents. The warning comes at the height of Pakistan’s summer melt season, when sustained heat spikes in the north can rapidly alter river flows, swell reservoirs and intensify monsoon-related flood risks.