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akistan has long been thought of as a young country, its identity shaped by bustling bazaars, crowded classrooms and a seemingly endless tide of youth. For decades, this youth bulge has been celebrated as a great opportunity for economic growth. But quietly and steadily, our demographic profile is beginning to change.
More people are living longer. Fertility rates are falling. Families are becoming smaller. And while a majority of our population is still young, the proportion of older people is rising. In 2023, around 17 million Pakistanis were aged 60 or above. This figure is expected to swell to over 40 million by the year 2050. That is nearly three times as many older people within just one generation.
This shift reflects progress. Better public health, maternal care and nutrition are helping more people live longer, healthier lives. The average life expectancy has climbed to over 67 years and is expected to rise further in the coming decades. At the same time, fertility has declined from more than six children per woman in the 1980s to just above three today. As a result, the structure of our population is changing.
The consequences of this transition are far-reaching. Economists and policymakers are beginning to ask a difficult but necessary question: what does population ageing mean for Pakistan’s economy?
To begin with, it will place new demands on our workforce. While the working-age population is still growing, that growth is slowing. In time, the share of elderly people will rise while the proportion of younger entrants into the labour market will shrink. This will require us to do more with fewer hands. Productivity will need to increase. Labour force participation—especially among women and older workers—must rise. And work itself must become more inclusive and adaptable.
Another challenge lies in how we protect the elderly. At present, most older people in Pakistan rely on family support for daily needs. But urbanisation, migration and the weakening of joint-family systems mean that many elderly people will be ageing alone, with limited care and little financial security.
Only a small fraction of older adults have access to formal pensions and even fewer benefit from public healthcare that addresses the chronic illnesses and disabilities that come with ageing. Without reforms, many more will grow old in poverty, invisible to systems designed for a younger population.
The burden on the healthcare system is also expected to rise. Older people often need more frequent and specialised care, including support for conditions like diabetes, heart disease and dementia. Pakistan’s health system, already stretched thin, is not adequately prepared for these demands. Nor is there a national plan for long-term care, geriatric services or the training of caregivers. Families, particularly women, shoulder most of this responsibility in silence.
Yet, it is important to remember that an ageing population is not just a problem to solve. It is also a reflection of human progress. People are living longer—and this in itself is something to celebrate. The real task before us is to make these longer lives healthier, more meaningful and more productive. If we do that, population ageing can become a driver of social and economic development.
There is enormous potential in what economists now call the “silver economy.” Older adults are not a passive or dependent group. They are consumers, citizens and often caregivers. In many societies, older people contribute to the economy.
There is enormous potential in what economists now call the “silver economy.” Older adults are not a passive or dependent group. They are consumers, citizens and often caregivers. In many societies, older people contribute to the economy through paid work, volunteering and the transfer of knowledge and values. They support grandchildren, provide emotional stability to families and remain active participants in community life.
Pakistan must begin to value and invest in this contribution. For example, many older workers would gladly remain employed if workplaces offered greater flexibility and recognised their experience. Lifelong learning programmes can help older adults update their skills. Programmes that match older mentors with young entrepreneurs can foster mutual respect across generations and build stronger social capital.
In fact, we have much to learn from countries that have already begun responding to the population ageing trends. In South Korea, the government has raised the retirement age and offers incentives to employers who train and retain older workers. In Thailand and Vietnam, communities have developed intergenerational day-care centres where the elderly and the young learn and play together. China, facing one of the fastest ageing populations in history, has introduced elder-friendly housing schemes and community-based care services to ease the pressure on families. Singapore has invested heavily in lifelong learning, encouraging all —including those over 60—to enrol formally in skill-building courses.
These examples show that with the right planning and investment, population ageing can be a positive force. But it requires a new way of thinking. Ageing must be seen not as an emergency, but as a permanent feature of our society. That means we must prepare, not react.
A clear and coordinated national ageing strategy is urgently needed in Pakistan. This should involve ministries of health, labour, finance and education, along with provincial governments, civil society and the private sector. Policies must be designed to promote active ageing, extend the retirement age gradually and create flexible work options for older adults. Pensions and social protection schemes must be expanded to cover informal workers, especially those in urban settings. We must also invest in health services that meet the needs of older persons, including geriatric care, dementia support and community-based care facilities.
Perhaps most importantly, we must recognise that supporting our ageing population does not mean diverting resources away from the youth. This is not a zero-sum equation. On the contrary, a society that ensures opportunity for its older citizens becomes stronger and fairer for everyone. When older people are healthy, financially secure and socially included, they remain economic contributors. They also mentor the young, support families and pass on values that strengthen the social fabric.
What Pakistan needs now is a bold and inclusive vision for ageing. We must rethink our systems—from pensions and healthcare to employment and housing—to ensure that they reflect the reality of longer lives and changing family structures. This includes gradually extending the retirement age, expanding pension coverage to the informal sector, supporting home- and community-based elder care and making our cities and workplaces more age-friendly.
Pakistan still has a window of opportunity. While our ageing population is growing, it is not yet overwhelming. But that window is closing fast. If we delay action, we risk waking up to a crisis where millions of older people will be left behind by systems. Such a future will not only be unjust but also economically damaging, as we will lose the contributions of a growing and vital segment of our society.
On the other hand, if we act with foresight and compassion, we can build a society where growing old is not something to fear, but something to look forward to. A society where older people are empowered to live with dignity, participate fully and help shape the future alongside the young. That is the promise of a just and inclusive Pakistan—and it is within our reach.
The writer is Provost, University of Management and Technology,
Lahore.