Comedy sketches in the past often featured a climate-conscious person advocating for a Stone Age-like lifestyle to save the planet Earth. It now turns out that that person was right: we needed this level of panic to avert the climate crisis that is now knocking on every country’s door. Besides infrastructural damage, climate-related catastrophes are also responsible for (and will continue) pushing millions more into extreme deprivation, undoing the decades of progress in reducing global poverty. The latest World Bank report warns that under a high-emissions scenario, nearly 43 million people could be plunged below the international poverty line of $2.15 per day by 2050. That’s a staggering reversal, and it doesn’t even account for worsening inequality. If broader poverty thresholds are used – say $3.65 or $6.85 per day – the numbers soar to 194 million and nearly 693 million, respectively. These are not projections to be taken lightly. In a country like Pakistan, where people are choosing between paying utilities and buying food, these alarm bells must jolt our policymakers into action.
And then there’s inequality: the hidden accelerant. A mere 1.0 per cent rise in national inequality could shove nearly nine million more people into poverty by 2050. A 10 per cent increase could tip the scales for 149 million more. Inequality and climate change, when combined, are a socioeconomic time bomb. Climate change may drastically reduce global economic output if emissions continue as usual. Projections suggest that global economic output could be reduced by 23 per cent by 2100 compared to a world without climate change, and this impact is substantially larger for poorer countries. The unfortunate reality is that instead of promising to phase out fossil fuels and build resilient business strategies, most countries have been slow in meeting their climate goals, putting profit over the planet. Past climatic disasters have shown how those affected were left without shelter and livelihood. The loss of cattle and the destruction of people’s business premises leave people with no immediate source of income. Most of them migrate to urban cities in search of better economic opportunities, putting the strain on an already fragile system.
Ideally, Pakistani lawmakers should not need warnings from any other institutions to realise the horrors of climate change. We are one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. In 2022, flash floods left one-third of the country under water. The latest monsoon spell has claimed the lives of nearly 300 people, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA); half of these are children. The gut-wrenching death scenes from Swat are still fresh in people’s memories. In recent days, many tourists have been evacuated from tourist places to bring down the death toll. The road ahead requires integrating climate action with inclusive economic growth, strengthening social safety nets, investing in climate-resilient sectors like agriculture and reducing inequality. International cooperation is also essential to support vulnerable nations in building resilience and pursuing low-carbon growth. One hopes someone somewhere in Islamabad has read the World Bank report.