Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent threats towards Pakistan, particularly over water and retaliation for so-called terrorism, represent yet another reckless escalation in regional tensions. Speaking on Thursday, Modi declared that Pakistan would be denied access to rivers over which India claims rights, adding that Pakistan’s army and economy would “pay a heavy price” for any terrorist attack. These threats, brazen and inflammatory, come not from a position of strength, but from a leader eager to project power domestically after suffering one of the most humiliating military setbacks in recent history. This is not Modi’s first attempt to manufacture belligerence for domestic gain. However, while his rhetoric is often rooted in political theatrics, water is far too serious to be treated as posturing. The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has long stood as a rare example of cooperation between two hostile neighbours. But India’s unilateral decision to hold the treaty in abeyance is deeply alarming and border on what Pakistan has rightly termed an ‘act of war’, PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari recently reiterated that peace in South Asia cannot be achieved unless three key issues are resolved between India and Pakistan – one of them being water. This is correct; the region risks being pushed into environmental and geopolitical catastrophe without mutual respect for transboundary water rights.
India’s move to suspend parts of the IWT – and its recent communication with Pakistan asking for modifications to the treaty due to population growth and clean energy needs – should be seen for what they are: attempts to rewrite a binding international agreement to suit domestic political interests. Pakistan’s attorney general has rightly clarified that while India may propose modifications, any discussion must occur within the treaty’s framework. The IWT, in Pakistan’s view, remains fully operational and any deviation by India would be at its own peril, especially concerning hydroelectric projects in disputed areas. Pakistan, for its part, has thus far abided by its international obligations. It has not taken unilateral actions, nor has it sought to destabilise regional mechanisms for cooperation. Yet, Modi’s India has continuously violated international norms – from the revocation of the special status of Occupied Jammu and Kashmir to the suspension of the IWT – without facing meaningful consequences. This emboldenment is in part due to the strategic support New Delhi receives from Western capitals keen to use India as a counterbalance to China, even if that means turning a blind eye to blatant human rights abuses and violations of international law.
The hypocrisy is glaring. When credible reports surfaced that India had carried out an assassination in Canada and attempted another in the US, the world barely reacted. Had another country done the same, it would have faced sanctions and diplomatic isolation. India, on the other hand, continues to enjoy a privileged position – though cracks are beginning to appear in that façade as evidence of state-sponsored global terrorism and military vulnerabilities mount. For Pakistan, the way forward must be one of unwavering and assertive diplomacy. Every Pakistani delegation must place the IWT and India’s violations front and centre on every international platform. The world needs to be reminded not only of India’s violations but also of the grave regional consequences if a nuclear-armed state begins weaponising water. The global diplomatic community has begun to take note of India’s increasingly aggressive posture. But for this pressure to be sustained, Pakistan must take the lead in building a consistent and compelling narrative. India’s military defeat and diplomatic missteps have dented its image. Pakistan needs to now seize the initiative and make the world hear our truth.