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ohn Armstrong’s The Future of Energy presents a bold take on energy transition, challenging some established narratives and opening new fronts for debate. Armstrong brings together expert insights and compelling analysis, making intricate ideas engaging and accessible.
The book goes beyond an assessment of energy generation, transportation and use. It opens a dynamic discourse. Rather than advocating a fixed route, Armstrong maps the shifting landscape of technologies, policy shifts and economic realities, urging the readers to confront the complexities shaping the future of energy.
A seasoned engineer with vast experience across the energy sector, Armstrong presents a holistic perspective on structural energy transition. The 2023 Guide to the Energy Transition extends this discussion through 2033, integrating advancements in sustainability, hydrogen, nuclear energy, heat systems, energy storage, electrification, smart grids, carbon capture and decentralised energy solutions. With a balanced and proactive approach, Armstrong explores the realities of energy transition, balancing technological innovation with practical implementation.
A central theme of the book is that the future of energy will utilise diverse technologies and there will be no single dominant solution. The transition from hydrocarbons is not going to be immediate since the current infrastructures cannot be simply switched off. The author argues that there is ‘no free lunch’—no technology is free from harmful consequences. With an open mind, he examines the choices and trade-offs while also engaging with the critical question of a ‘just transition.’ How can energy change in such a way that all benefit and the society gains as a whole?
Do fossil fuels have a future? Armstrong challenged the notion that their days are numbered. He argues that such a conclusion is premature. Even under the most ambitious carbon reduction plans, fossil fuels will account for 77 percent of global energy production in 2040. “It is clear that fossil fuels are to be here for quite a while,” he remarks.
Armstrong points out a harsh reality: global carbon emissions will remain high, with 36 gigatonnes of CO2 emitted annually. While renewable adoption is accelerating, systemic transformations are needed. He examines the role of fossil fuel, questioning their long-term viability while acknowledging their necessity in key industries.
Fossil fuels present both a challenge and an opportunity in decarbonisation. They supply an exceptionally good vehicle for moving and deploying energy. This is due to the substantial amount of existing transport infrastructure in place and their high energy densities.
The discussion on renewables is nuanced—solar and wind power generation continues to expand, yet intermittency and infrastructure constraints hinder full-scale deployment. By 2035, they may supply half of global energy, though fossil fuels are expected to persist into 2040. The cost-competitiveness of renewable integration and grid modernisation challenges receive particular attention.
Despite efforts to phase out coal, Armstrong notes its dominance, particularly in China, where power capacity exceeds 1,000 gigawatts. The feasibility of carbon capture and storage is examined, recognising financial and technological hurdles. Oil exploration continues, and natural gas remains a significant contributor, reinforcing that fossil fuels will persist for decades.
“Hydrogen: hope or hype?” Armstrong asks, as the energy transition places it at the heart of decarbonisation. He explores black, blue and green hydrogen, weighing their feasibility against infrastructure challenges. While hydrogen could decarbonise sectors where electrification falls short, concerns about cost, efficiency and infrastructure persist. Similar scrutiny is applied to biofuels, ammonia and synthetic fuels, balancing optimism with economic and logistical realities.
Armstrong warns that pumped hydro, lithium-ion batteries and emerging alternatives all have their problems. He stresses the critical need for both short-term and seasonal storage, cautioning that without it, grid reliability will remain at risk.
The book also delves into the electrification of transport, sustainable aviation fuels and smart city energy management. Armstrong’s insights into district heating, integrated networks and localised power systems provide a pragmatic perspective on urban energy resilience.
“Is the future of travel all-electric?” Armstrong asks, as the rise of EVs continues. He examines the challenges of charging infrastructure and lithium battery sustainability, while leaving the potential of ammonia and hydrogen open for debate.
A valuable resource for policymakers, researchers and energy professionals, John Armstrong’s The Future of Energy unpacks complex transitions with clarity, challenging conventions and reframing the energy debate.
One of the book’s most thought-provoking sections explores energy system integration. Armstrong stresses that transition cannot occur in silos—renewables, nuclear, energy storage and carbon capture must work in tandem for a stable energy future. Diversification is key to an adaptive system responsive to evolving demands and external shocks.
Beyond technology, the author examines consumers’ evolving role, highlighting ‘prosumers,’ individuals and businesses generating and managing energy through distributed energy sources and technologies like solar, batteries and more.
This shift from passive consumption to active participation is reshaping markets and promoting decentralisation. His analysis of energy efficiency and behavioural change reinforces the idea that technology alone is insufficient; societal engagement and informed decision-making are equally crucial.
The book includes a discussion on resilience, often overlooked in innovation-centred discussions. Armstrong argues that while breakthroughs matter, existing systems must be strengthened against disruptions whether from climate events, cyber threats or geopolitical instability. Securing adaptable energy networks is paramount. His call for increased investment in grid modernisation, demand-response mechanisms and diversified energy sourcing is timely and critical.
Armstrong acknowledges that unforeseen technological breakthroughs could reshape the energy sector. The rapid cost decline in battery storage demonstrates how unexpected advancements accelerate change. He also explores nuclear fusion, next-generation battery chemistries and emerging grid technologies as potential disruptors. However, he maintains a grounded approach, recognising the structural inertia that energy transitions often face.
While the book offers a holistic view, a deeper dive into the geopolitical race for critical minerals and evolving supply chain dynamics would have added depth. A sharper focus on energy poverty—its intersection with energy justice, and the scalability of decentralised solutions—would have strengthened the discussion for an inclusive, equitable transition.
“How will energy look in 2033?” Armstrong asks. By then, he predicts, rapid heat decarbonisation will surge via air and ground-source heat pumps. Nuclear will expand despite hurdles and hydrogen will power heavy transport and industry. Battery growth will persist but face resource limits. Enhanced insulation and improved efficiency will gain a sense of urgency and pace. Energy systems will be digitalised, decentralised and flexible.
By 2031, half of all vehicles will be electric, marking a transport energy shift. The systems will get smarter and more local. A black swan event—nuclear fusion, deep geothermal or hydrogen breakthroughs—could rewrite the energy equation, redefining the global energy order and making fossil fuels obsolete far sooner than expected.
Does Covid-19 change everything?” Armstrong asks, as he examines the pandemic’s impact on energy demand and policy shifts. In The Future of Energy, he highlights how the temporary drop in emissions during lockdowns revealed both the scale of the challenge and the potential for structural change. Governments introduced green stimulus packages, yet fossil fuel investments rebounded as economies reopened. This duality underscores the volatility of energy policy and the competing interests shaping transition pathways.
By the final chapters, The Future of Energy is not just about forecasting trends but equipping readers to engage critically. Armstrong points out that in energy, there is no free lunch—every technology in generation, distribution and consumption, carries trade-offs in cost, carbon and reliability. The temptation to embrace silver-bullet solutions must be resisted, as failing to carefully phase between alternatives risks an unstable, costly and unreliable system.
Technologies have the potential to cannibalise one another, disrupting optimal pathways and reshaping market dynamics. Regulators will move to limit carbon, and unexpected “green swans” will challenge what we think we know. Only through open dialogue can we truly understand and communicate the impact of today’s energy choices on the future.
A valuable resource for policymakers, researchers and energy professionals, John Armstrong’s The Future of Energy unpacks complex transitions with clarity, challenging conventions and reframing the energy debate. While centred on the global transition, particularly in the UK, Armstrong’s insights remain highly relevant to Pakistan’s energy transition, especially amid the evolving geopolitical landscape and shifting global energy order.
(The reviewer wishes to acknowledge Armstrong’s generosity in sharing a hard copy, which enriched the reading experience.)
The reviewer is a Jamshoro-based doctoral researcher in energy. He can be reached at hussainshafqat.memongmail.com.