There may be somewhat of a lull in the political realm these days but that seems to be a temporary respite for political observers who may soon get busy reading the opposition's grand alliance plans given the conversation on the first day of the two-day Grand Alliance Conference in Islamabad put together by the country's political opposition. Convened to address the 'quagmire of instability' under the ruling coalition, the conference says it will focus on the supremacy of the constitution and rule of law. However, the larger question is whether this alliance can truly exert pressure on the government or if it is destined to be another fleeting political spectacle. The timing of the conference is significant, coming just a month after failed negotiations between the PTI and the government. Following the collapse of talks, the PTI reached out to opposition parties to form this 'grand alliance'. Yet, political analysts are sceptical about its effectiveness, largely due to the PTI’s inconsistent strategy. The party’s habit of shifting stances has cost it credibility, weakening its ability to mount substantial pressure on the government. If the PTI had continued the dialogue, it could have exposed the government’s alleged non-seriousness, gaining public sympathy. Instead, the abrupt withdrawal only showcased the party's own lack of commitment.
Former Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi’s candid criticism on the first day of the conference (on Wednesday, Feb 26) targeted what he said was the ruling coalition’s suppression of democracy and the dismantling of the judicial system. His rebuke of his former party, the PML-N, and the PPP for abandoning their principles may strike a chord with those disillusioned with the political status quo. Pakistan’s political history is no stranger to parties switching positions once they come to power. We don't have to look too far for that: the PTI, which once vehemently clamped down on political opponents and media critics, now ironically projects itself as a champion of human rights and free speech. Likewise, the 'democratic' PML-N and PPP seem to be happily ensconced in the hybrid system. The success of this opposition alliance hinges on lessons from history. The Charter of Democracy (CoD) between the PML-N and PPP during Gen Pervez Musharraf’s regime serves as a precedent for opposition unity. Despite being political rivals, the two parties honoured the CoD, demonstrating that cooperation is possible if rooted in a genuine commitment to democratic principles. If this new alliance is to succeed, the parties must pledge to respect political freedoms and media independence, regardless of their future electoral fortunes.
The alliance could also learn from the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM) experience. The PDM’s strength lay in its unity during Imran Khan’s tenure. However, its momentum faltered when the PPP made a compromise after the Senate polls, only regaining traction once the PPP rejoined the fold. The current grand alliance must avoid similar fractures. The PTI, as the largest opposition party, must not dominate but rather engage in collective decision-making, maintaining transparency and resisting the temptation of secret deals for political gain. Critics argue that the ruling coalition is firmly in power with no immediate threat. However, political overconfidence has historically led to blunders, causing governments to collapse. The opposition’s challenge is to remain united and strategic, avoiding the pitfalls of infighting and inconsistency. If the alliance can do this, it may transform from mere political theatre into a formidable force that genuinely advocates for constitutional supremacy and rule of law. That is not a bad thing for anyone.