Sindh's rural and urban politics remained unchallenged and unchanged and still revolves around Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). Why the new and old challengers finding it difficult to make inroads through religious, national or nationalist slogans to break their domination? Even PPP and MQM themselves failed in challenging each other in their respective constituencies. As we expect rise in polarisation in the coming months, it may be the issue in the next elections, if held as per schedule in 2018.
The dilemma is that these two strong political entities have also failed in transforming Sindh as one of the most developed province, which they could have done when they were coalition partners more than once and resolved their differences politically.
But their partnership could not last long since it was often based on fear and insecurity and they accommodated each other only in their own interest rather than addressing the issues to end polarisation and political disparity.
Sindh would continue to suffer if politics remains polarised and issues are not addressed on merit. Young Finance Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah recently made a very thought-provoking statement while talking to me. "It’s a dilemma that we have not been able to find competent people and many projects could not be completed because the incompetent people lack the ability."
“In the presence of more incompetent people, competent people get more corrupt,” he said, adding, “Now we are hiring competent people on higher salaries.” Thus, making merit a casualty in Sindh in particular, the outcome and governance issues are natural.
The other national parties like Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) or Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) yet to come out with a competitive programme as merely being anti-MQM and anti-Altaf or anti-PPP and anti-Zardari may not help them. What is the alternate they can offer?
Both PPP and MQM had never been challenged politically but often been dislodged or discredited through other means and as a result it could not change voters’ mindset. For instance, had the establishment not dislodged late Muhammad Khan Junejo in May, 1988, both as prime minister and PML chief and made Nawaz Sharif as party head, the PML could have countered PPP in Sindh too with a better option.
The establishment brought the challenger to Benazir Bhutto from Punjab, which helped the PPP in Sindh, but not in Punjab where it faced back-to-back defeats and could never recover in province which was made a base by Bhutto of his politics. Thus, the PPP couldn’t counter this trap and is now reduced to Sindh after BB's assassination.
While the PPP remained a national party, it often used nationalist colour through ‘Sindh Card’ when Nawaz Sharif came into power with slogans like ‘Jaag Punjabi Jaag’. The PPP's card further reduced the space for nationalist parties even in the absence of someone like BB.
The dilemma of the nationalists parties in Sindh have also been their failure to transform themselves in challenging the PPP's game plan.
Firstly, for years, the nationalists remained confused whether to contest elections or not, and secondly, they could not organise themselves as a strong political unit. Their politics remained more focused on the MQM than the PPP. Their stance helped the MQM like the PML’s slogan of ‘Jaag Punjabi Jaag’ assisted the PPP in interior Sindh. Today, Bilawal Bhutto's remarks of ‘Punjabistan budget’ would help the PML-N, not PPP.
Now, some of the nationalists have joined Grand Opposition Alliance (GDA) comprising parties and individuals who in the past failed in making any serious inroads in the PPP constituencies. Some of them in the past had ruled Sindh, with the backing of the establishment. Thus, the loser in this politics would be someone like Ayaz Palijo, who is emerging as a political leader, as veterans like Syed Ghaus Ali Shah, Liaquat Jatoi or Ghulam Rahim have already been tested.
The other is young Pir Pagaro who leads PML-Functional and made a good entry with his first public meeting after the death of the veteran Pir Pagaro, but could not consolidated his position in politics.
However, PPP's own vote bank in its respective constituencies has reduced considerably over the years. But in the absence of any serious challenger, it has been taken it for granted and as a resulted not much development work took place in the last three decades in major fields, with funds often wasted or going into pockets.
The PPP also lost its ground in urban Sindh because of narrow political approach. In the 1970 elections, it won eight MPA seats in Karachi and two of National Assembly. In 1979 and 1983 local government elections, it had a close fight with Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and twice got its deputy mayor elected.
Emergence of MQM, first as a student party of Mohajirs and then political party, should be seen in the backdrop of PPP's government decisions on quota system and domicile for admissions and jobs. This led to riots in Sindh, but at that time the JI and JUP used the issue against it.
This politics gave birth to the MQM and was exploited by the then military establishment which was already working on ‘polarised politics’ in the country.
The successive PPP governments did not change their stance on these issues but recognised the MQM as political entity, with the two forming coalition governments. But each time their alliances broke up, sometimes over distribution of resources or ministries. Some vested interests too intervened to stimulate the process.
Whether its PPP or non-PPP government, local government had never been empowered, even when JI's Abdul Sattar Afghani and Naimatullah Khan were the Karachi mayors. Only Gen (retired) Pervez Musharraf tried to empower the system and also provided funds, but he lacked legitimacy to rule which has been the problem with dictators.
The MQM remained a dominant political reality, not merely because of its organisational skill or due to militancy as alleged by its opponents, but because it has never been challenged politically.
While JUP or JUI-F had almost surrendered politically in Karachi and Hyderabad, it is JI's politics, particularly since 2008, which surprised many including its own circle. In 2013 elections, the differences between the Karachi and central chapters of the party came on surface, when on the election day, the then JI chief Syed Munawar Hasan announced the boycott.
Later, it tried its luck in NA-246 but failed miserably and never contested any by-elections after 2014. Its performance in the local government polls clearly reflected that the party is losing its ground.
The PTI, which had pulled 0.8 million votes in 2013, is now struggling in even securing their securities in by-polls. Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) led by Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani, two former stalwarts of MQM, is yet to be tested. But their political approach of national politics may not help them particularly amid polarised politics. How will they try to keep the balance when it comes to PPP and MQM? So far they are attacking the MQM and avoiding the PPP. If PSP is a national party, one has to see its stance on national issues and towards PML-N and PTI.
Thus, both PPP and MQM are retaining their positions and unlikely to face a major challenger unless someone really want to challenge them politically.
The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang