The current year is not yet half gone and Pakistan has already detected 153 environmental samples testing positive for polio in 39 districts as of last week. This is compared to 126 positive environmental samples from 28 districts during all of 2023. A similar trend is emerging when it comes to confirmed cases of the virus as well with four cases of polio being found across the country this year till now as compared to six cases during all of last year. This resurgence in the virus may be one of the reasons behind the government replacing the current polio programme chief – who has resigned from his position. The outgoing polio chief seems to have attributed the rise in positive samples to an increase in surveillance sites for collecting samples from 900 to 3,000. Whatever the case may be, the final picture shows a country struggling to eradicate a disease that, apart from neighbouring Afghanistan, the rest of the world has put in its rear-view mirror. This is not to say that the country has not made considerable progress in reducing the incidence of polio, with over 150 cases having been recorded in 2019 – only that the ultimate aim of eradicating the virus once and for all still remains elusive and that past progress appears to have suffered a setback. This is rather disappointing given that the nation, at the start of this decade, appeared to have truly turned a corner when it came to eradication. However, what was achieved before can certainly be done again.
Whether this setback becomes permanent or temporary will be defined by how the country approaches the polio problem going forward. Many have pointed to vaccine misinformation and hesitancy, a precarious security situation in many of the areas where polio cases are prevalent and the targeted murder of vaccination teams and their police escorts when discussing the factors impeding Pakistan’s anti-polio efforts. Vaccine hesitancy among parents reportedly played a major role in two of the cases of the virus reported so far this year, with both involving children under five in Balochistan.
Pakistan can make all the improvements to its healthcare network and the capacities of polio workers it likes but if people themselves, due to misinformation and propaganda, refuse to take the vaccine the country might never be rid of the disease. Intensifying efforts to counter anti-vaccine disinformation and propaganda and ensuring a better security environment in the areas where the virus is prevalent will thus be crucial to improving acceptance of and access to the vaccine. Building an accurate picture of the population structure to identify how many unvaccinated children there are and which areas have the highest risk of transmission will also be critical.