LAHORE: One of the most interesting contests in the coming elections may take place in the Baldia Town constituency of the Quaid’s city, Karachi, where former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif is once again expected to contest the polls against former Karachi mayor and Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) leader Mustafa Kamal and last MNA from the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Abdul Qadir Mandokhel.
Apart from fielding himself in a Lahore constituency, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) President and former PM Shehbaz is likely to contest NA-242 (old NA-249) District Keamari where he contested the last general elections as well.
The former PM had a close contest with Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf's (PTI) Faisal Vawda in the 2018 general elections, which Vawda won with a margin of a few hundred votes. The PPP snatched this seat from the PTI in the 2021 after Vawda had resigned following his election to the Senate. The PPP’s Mandokhel emerged victorious and defeated the PML-N and PDM's joint candidate Miftah Ismail.
Kamal also contested in the by-poll while he was leading the Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) which has now merged with the MQM-P. In the coming elections, he would be the MQM-P’s candidate.
Saliheen Tanoli, a provincial assembly ticket holder of the PML-N, has claimed the Shehbaz would once again contest the seat. Although the MQM-P and PML-N have decided in principle to contest the upcoming general elections as allies, they may not surrender their candidates in favour of each other in NA-242.
If they reach a compromise, their joint candidate may have an advantage but the PPP candidate believes this would not work. Talking to The News, Mandokhel stated that he had single-handedly defeated the PDM parties’ joint candidate in the last by-poll on the PPP ticket. He added that the PML-N was not in the 2018-like position and this constituency had slipped from its hands.
"Even if the PML-N and MQM contest the polls jointly, the PPP would win this seat on the basis of its performance.” He said that as the MNA, he was focused on the constituency and brought gas supply, a NADRA office, and educational facilities, including a university, in the constituency.
Unlike other constituencies of Karachi where candidates supported by the MQM won most of the times, this constituency has historically shown different results. Being a home to Pakhtuns, Balochs, Sindhis as well as Urdu speaking and Bihari community, this constituency also has a very strong religious vote.
In the 2002 general elections, the religious parties’ alliance Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) clinched the Baldia Town seat. The MMA’s Qari Gul Rehman was elected to the National Assembly after defeating the PPP. Even in the last polls, one of the Sindh Assembly seats in this constituency was won by the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan.
If the TLP makes seat adjustments with any party, the prospects of NQ-242 will certainly change. The history of the Baldia Town constituency since 1988 shows that the PPP won from here twice and lost two times with a narrow margin.
In the 1988 and 1990 general elections, the MQM’s candidates won from here, but in the 1993 and 1997 elections, it was the PML-N's Ejaz Shafi who won with a narrow margin against the PPP and MQM respectively.
In 2002, the MMA won from Baldia Town and in 2008, it was Abdul Qadir Patel of the PPP who won from most of the areas under this constituency falling in Keamari. In the 2013 polls, Salman Baloch of the MQM won this seat and in 2018 when it became NA-249, it was won by the PTI's Vawda. Three years later, the PPP won this seat in the by-poll.
The contests between the PML-N and PPP in 1993, between the PML-N and MQM in 1997, between the MMA and PPP in 2002, and between the PTI and PML-N in 2018 were very close as the margin of victory mostly remained less than 1,000 votes.
PML-N leader Salim Zia, who is a former law minister of Sindh and currently a candidate in NA-234 District Korangi, stated that the PML-N had a very good record in this constituency and was capable of winning the seat.
The MQM-P candidate, Kamal, told The News that his party had inked no written agreement with any party that bound it to withdraw its candidates in support of the other party.
He added that the last election results showed the votes polled by the MQM and PSP jointly surpassed every other party, due to which the MQM-P should be supported by its allies in principle in the constituency.
He stated that when he was the mayor (district nazim) of Karachi, he brought a mega project of water supply to the area, connected 70 villages that lead to Mubarak village through a road network, and established a stadium where noted cricketers were invited to visit and play.
Besides, he said, he constructed three small dams which were vital for overcoming water shortage. Kamal, who was elected an MPA in the 2002 elections and became the Sindh IT minister in 2003 before assuming the mayoral post in 2005, seems optimistic about the MQM-P’s victory.