How many people live below the poverty line in Pakistan? Contrary to what most analysts have maintained, government statistics since 2001 have continued to indicate a decline in poverty in Pakistan, with some statistics claiming it is as low as 9.3 percent. These statistics and the methodology used to back them have been questioned consistently. Now the government has changed the model it used earlier to gauge poverty. The new statistics on poverty released by the government may actually be closer to the truth. Around 30 percent of Pakistan’s population now qualify as poor – according to new official figures. This is probably a much closer reflection of reality. The sudden jump in numbers also raises questions not only about the methodology used but whether earlier figures were borne out of ill-will on the part of previous governments. Having decided to abandon the Food Energy Intake (FEI) model for the Cost of Basic Needs (CBN) model, which has been in use since 2001, we finally have a much better reflection of the economic health of the less privileged classes of the country. The new model includes non-food costs, including education and healthcare, which are integral to gauging how well one is doing. While wages have increased on average, the food share has decreased due to higher rates of inflation. According to the new figures, an alarming 60 million people in Pakistan live on below Rs3,030 per month, or just one dollar a day.
The rather brave decision by the federal government to adjust their statistics to reflect the reality – and so also give an accurate reflection over scoring political points – deserves praise. The trouble, however, is that in the absence of a census or a proper poverty survey, the numbers are based on surveys whose methodology can still be questioned. The last survey of 2013-14 came up with a poverty figure so low that the government decided not to release it, instead of facing criticism and embarrassment. Even now, the new methodology is open to criticism as the food calorie intake estimate is still below international standards. It also leaves out the cost of travel and fuel usage. The poverty line has been kept at $1 per day, which is still less than the World Bank’s revised poverty line of $1.75 per day. Increasing this figure would have increased the poverty level to at least 50 percent of the country’s population. It may be too much to expect the government to accept poverty measures than measure actual quality of life and opportunities instead of simple numerical assessments. But it should have used this opportunity to increase the minimum standard it is setting to measure poverty. The problem with the one-dimensional approach to poverty measurement is that the solutions proposed are also one-dimensional. It must be recognised that poverty has many dimensions which must be reflected in official statistics. The reality is that Pakistan is a deeply unequal society, with class, ethnicity, region and gender playing a role in determining poverty. Changing that will require the government to understand the complex nature of poverty and responding to it with holistic policymaking.