As their populations continue to grow, both Pakistan and India are increasingly desperate for water. Without this vital commodity the needs of people and of agriculture as well as industry can simply not be sustained. Now, in a major development, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague -- a non-UN inter-governmental institution that helps with international dispute resolution -- has rejected India’s six objections challenging the court’s jurisdiction to hear the case about the controversial designs of the Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects that India is building on rivers Jhelum and Chenab in contravention of the Indus Waters Treaty. This has been a long-standing despite and at the heart of the matter is the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), something India has forgotten to adhere to time and again. The IWT itself has survived these onslaughts for years and the current issue has involved the Court of Arbitration in The Hague as well as international law questions after India sent a notice to Pakistan saying it wanted to change the IWT. Pakistan had wanted the Court of Arbitration to resolve these disputes whereas India had opposed this and filed a parallel request for the appointment of a neutral expert while also challenging the court of arbitration by saying that parallel proceedings were not allowed by the IWT.
The problem became exacerbated by the declining relations between New Delhi and Islamabad which post-Modi have been at an all-time low, making it even harder to consider a possibility of a bilateral consensus being reached on the new barrages, their design and related issues. As a country with a high cost of power generation, the water problem has also made Pakistan’s power sector unsustainable. As the reality of climate change sets in, Pakistan is facing a bleak future as a water-insecure country. India’s rapid industrialization has increased its energy needs, which has led to a large-scale project of constructing dams. Of all the issues that hinder relations between Pakistan and India none hold as much long-term significance as the fight over water resources. This is partly because of an accident of geography, with all the major rivers in the region originating in India -- making it the powerful upper-riparian state -- but the problem has become even worse in recent years as the reality of climate change and prolonged droughts has set in and India has started constructing dams at breakneck speed.
Pakistan has been trying to get India to adhere to the Indus Waters Treaty, which allows for India to build dams on the rivers assigned to it. Unfortunately, India has always tried its utmost to breach the treaty and built dams upon the rivers assigned to Pakistan. One reason India has been able to take such an unyieldingly maximalist position is that it has mostly prevailed in the international arena. Which is why the the Court of Arbitration's rejection of India's objections is such a win for Pakistan. As the ravages of global climate change start to make themselves felt in both countries, there will be ever-increased demand for water. And yet the two countries are unable to even reach an agreement on something as minor as the height of a few reservoirs. It is apparent that Narendra Modi’s India wants to be the dominant, bullying power in any relationship. Pakistan is rightly concerned about Modi's capacity to use water as a weapon against us. What we need is a comprehensive solution -- finally -- so that this essential resource does not become a bargaining chip in India's unhinged approach towards diplomatic ties with Pakistan.