That Pakistan has been walking a diplomatic tightrope when it comes to its ties with China and its compulsions to also stay in America’s good books is not much of a secret. For years, Pakistan’s policymakers have spoken of the exalted ‘middle ground’ the country must toe to ensure it doesn’t ruffle the feathers of either of the two powers. That may be shifting as the world tries to come to terms with a growing polarization – the US and its allies vs China and its camp. Where does Pakistan stand in this? If the Discord Leaks are to be believed, Pakistan’s foreign policy experts may be rethinking their middle-ground approach. A trove of secret communication files leaked allegedly by a US military whistleblower on Discord, a popular free chat platform for the video gaming community, has brought to the fore reckoning that countries like Pakistan have to do in the face of the now very open standoff between the US, China and Russia. Apart from Pakistan, the countries attempting to recalibrate and rethink their options include India, Brazil and Egypt.
Pakistan is in the spotlight due to two leaked memos. The first, titled ‘Pakistan’s Difficult Choices’, has Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar talking about Islamabad now needing to avoid giving the appearance of appeasing the West. According to the leaked memo, Khar felt that Pakistan’s efforts to preserve its ties with the US could seriously harm the benefits of the country’s “real strategic” partnership with China. The second leaked memo is a communication between Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and an unnamed aide who – in the leaked memo – is said to have cautioned the prime minister that Pakistan voting on a UN resolution vote on the Ukraine war would affect its relations with Russia, advising that Pakistan’s trade and energy deals with Russia could be jeopardized by its vote on Ukraine. Apart from the fact that these are leaked communications of sovereign nations, apparently in the know of US intelligence, one is at a loss to understand just why these would be sensational. Does every country not calibrate its foreign policy ties according to what benefits it can gain from them? We already have the glaring example of the US popping up India as a strategic asset against China. And we have already seen how even that relationship has not affected India’s efforts to maintain its ties with Russia. Pakistan, as a country living on handouts, admittedly is in a much more difficult position when it comes to choosing between the US and China. A ‘difficult choice’ indeed as Khar wrote – but now one that may need to be made. If our strategic interests lie in maintaining our very friendly ‘brotherly’ ties with China, why must that be sacrificed at the altar of a what-if relationship with the US?
The answer, however, may not be that simple. Pakistan’s ties with the US transcend military and economic aid/benefits. We have a thriving education exchange programme, and an impressive diaspora living in the US. That should be enough to regulate our relations with the global superpower. But that cannot include Pakistan sacrificing its relationship with China. If only for CPEC, which has now for years been seen as an eyesore by the Americans, the Pakistan-China relationship is far too important to be ignored just because the US has grown wary of China’s increasing power. With China’s new role as a foreign policy arbiter – its role in brokering the Saudi-Iran breakthrough has been phenomenal – Biden and his government no doubt have a potent reason for concern. But perhaps, the US needs to finally understand that pushing developing countries like ours (or even India or Brazil or Egypt, for that matter) into choosing sides will no longer work.
The Discord Leaks is the largest leak of classified Pentagon documents since Edward Snowden. That it came via an otherwise obscure and niche chat app for gamers that also became a site for secure secret discussions also shows the brave new world we live in. Intelligence documents have been leaked before, but the fact that this leak was in the Discord domain since January and was picked up only after it had made the rounds on varying social media sites may be a sign of times to come. For years, the US intelligence apparatus has kept files on sovereign nations internal communications. That should be more the subject of news than the fact that countries would like to place their strategic interest above those of Western or Eastern superpowers.