National elections held in Iran last week provide a way forward for the region which eschews right-wing dictatorships of the kind found in the Gulf or the stalled revolutions of Egypt and Libya. Moderate forces made significant electoral gains in parliament and now control every seat from Tehran, even though they remain a minority overall. Equally significantly, two of the most radical clerics were ousted from the Assembly of Experts, which has the constitutional authority to select the next Supreme Leader. The results were unexpected since moderates usually turn out for presidential elections while conservatives dominate parliamentary elections. It also gives a significant boost to the moderate President Rouhani, who had made the nuclear deal with the US and negotiations with Gulf neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia, the centrepiece of his agenda. On both counts, he faced often ferocious criticism. With the nuclear deal he had the advantage of the full support of Supreme Leader Khamenei but ties with Saudi Arabia threatened to unravel at many points, most recently when the Saudis executed a Shia cleric: this led to a ratcheting up of tensions by conservatives.
This does not mean Rouhani will have everything his own way. The Revolutionary Guard still maintains complete control over security policy and is among the most anti-Saudi forces in the country. Khamenei, while broadly supportive of Rouhani’s agenda, can still stymie him if he goes too far. What the elections do show is that Iran as a whole has got behind Rouhani. This will give him breathing room to continue seeking peace, both with the West and with Arab countries. As sanctions are lifted and Iran’s economy revived, Rouhani will reap further benefits from his country’s reassimilation into the international community. Thus he can move cautiously forward with his reformist agenda and further reduce the influence of conservatives. Iran, with its young population and brighter economic prospects, is already a regional force but continues to be locked in proxy wars with Saudi Arabia. Rouhani has been trying to change that and now he can claim a mandate to do so. Iran now needs to embrace consensus among its population as the way forward.