The tragicomedy in Punjab essentially continues as the PTI, PML-Q and PDM battle it out for the most powerful seat in Lahore. First, Imran Khan announced the PTI would quit the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies. That led to an inevitable back and forth regarding Pervaiz Elahi and where he stood in reality. On Friday, in a strange stealth mission in the early hours, Punjab Governor Balighur Rehman denotified Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi as the chief minister of Punjab. As expected, the matter was taken to the Lahore High Court (LHC), and a five-member bench heard the case – eventually reinstating CM Elahi after an undertaking from Elahi that he would not dissolve the provincial assembly. The case will continue on January 11 now. This, in a nutshell, is where Punjab stands at the moment – caught in a court case, once again.
In all this, one is tempted to ask: who won this round in what has become a gladiatorial contest for the Punjab throne? The PDM has said Imran is the chief loser, with no dissolution of the assemblies taking place. The PTI insists the PDM has lost the round since – per the PTI – the Punjab Assembly will be dissolved, eventually. However, looking purely at the current situation, it is obvious that a) Elahi is still CM; and b) the Punjab Assembly will not be dissolved till at least till January 11 and it depends on how long the case lasts and what comes out of it at the end. Some political analysts believe that it will continue for a few more months, after which comes Ramazan; at the end of the day, it can lead to all assemblies completing their terms. We may just see a beaming Elahi walk Punjab into the next general elections at the time they are supposed to be held. This is why it has been easy for many to term the latest political manoeuvrings – vote of confidence, de-notification, reinstatement – a win-win for the PDM coalition and PML-Q, some in the Noon League even calling it a ‘game’ in which Elahi is on their side. Not to be missed though is the matter of the vote of confidence, which the court has not yet addressed in the short order. The PTI leadership says they have no issue with the vote of confidence, as long as there is ample time for their MPs to return to the country.
Regardless of what the PTI chairman says, it is hard to imagine that CM Elahi would be gung-ho about giving up Punjab. It is also clear as day that the PTI just cannot force early elections. What then for the PTI leader – whose avatar since April this year has pretty much been all about ‘early elections’? Surely, even the PTI would know that without any elections in sight, it would not make any sense to let go of two provincial assemblies, given how much power and bargaining power it gives to Imran. This is why there are those who have been sceptical of the PTI’s dissolution mantra – saying the party is just looking for a face-saving in order to return to parliament and work towards the general elections. It would be prudent on the part of all political stakeholders to come up with a new charter of democracy and a charter of economy because elections amidst such acrimonious polarization will not solve any problems. If and when elections are held, one or the other party will not accept the election results. It is better that a mechanism is devised that has been agreed on by all parties so that no one cries foul. For that, all of them need to put aside their egos and charter a new way forward. They also may want to look at the only ones losing out in all this: the people who at the moment are not only trying to live amidst an economic emergency but also under a real threat of resurging militancy in the country.