Nuclear talk

Since the last meeting of the National Command Authority – which runs all aspects of our nuclear policy – in February 2016, Pakistan has seen a change of prime minister, defence and interior ministers, army chief and ISI head. The country is also facing new security challenges, particularly in the form of growing military cooperation between the US and India. The NCA met last week and decided the country would continue to maintain its policy of credible minimum deterrence for our nuclear arsenal. What this has meant in reality is Full Spectrum Deterrence, which gives us the ability to launch nuclear strikes even if we are hit first. The build-up of India’s conventional forces and arms capabilities, which is only increasing under the Trump Administration, as well as the alarming rhetoric of Narendra Modi has forced Pakistan to beef up its nuclear stockpile. For now, any attempt to reduce our nuclear armaments – which should be the ultimate policy goal – has had to be put on hold.

If anything, we can expect a surge in the regional nuclear arms race. As was mentioned at the NCA meeting, India is now pursuing a ballistic missile defence programme. This entails land- and sea-based interceptor missiles thwarting any missile launched from as much as 6,000 km away. India has been testing the missile defence programme but it is not yet fully operational. Should it succeed, though, the disparity in conventional weapons between the two countries will become even more pronounced, leading us to rely mainly on our nuclear deterrence. The second aim of the NCA meeting was to respond to the US National Security Strategy Statement from the week before which called on Pakistan to show that it is a responsible steward of its nuclear assets. The NCA was formed to do just that and there is now a comprehensive command-and-control structure in place for Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. The US statement was seen as a reiteration of US opposition to Pakistan’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Earlier this month, Russia had announced it was in favour of us being admitted to the NSG but India and the US remain implacably opposed. Thus the NCA released detailed explanations of the safety procedures in place and once again said we should be allowed into the NSG. This is an important goal for Pakistan not just because of the international credibility it gives the country but for allowing us to import nuclear energy to tackle our energy crisis. Membership in the NSG is a distant prospect but the only way we can hope to achieve it is through regular meetings of the NCA, and a clear demonstration that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal is safe.