A political wrangle over resignations from assemblies has caused cracks in the anti-government Pakistan Democratic Alliance (PDM), forcing its leaders to defer the decision on launching the much-awaited long march to Islamabad till March 26. It was not just the long march’s postponement but also various differences among PDM’s major components such as the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) that surfaced during and after the PDM summit, which has enabled the stressed PTI government to breathe a sigh of relief. The ruling party believes that this is the beginning of the PDM’s demise.

The major issue is about the alliance partners resigning from the assemblies. After Tuesday’s summit, attended by President Asif Zardari and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif via a video link, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the PDM president said, “Nine parties support the idea of resigning from assemblies but the PPP is not ready; due to this we have postponed the decision about the long march till March 26.”

The way Rehman left the presser, without taking any questions, speaks of his displeasure. Maryam Nawaz, the PML-N vice president and Yousaf Raza Gillani, the PPP senior vice president, however, tried to answer journalists’ questions in a composed manner. However, statements issued by several PML-N leaders soon after the meeting revealed that there were several contentious issues: Asif Zardari’s demand for Nawaz Sharif’s return and Maryam’s reaction, the JUI-F’s grievance over the defeat of its leader Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Haideri in the election for Senate deputy chairman despite the nominal PDM majority in the upper house, and the decision about nominating the leader of the opposition in the Senate.

Interestingly, the PPP did not raise or dwell on party stalwart Farhatullah Babar’s defeat in the Senate election in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

“Ten members of PDM parties did not vote for me,” Babar told TNS. Seeking to dispel the impression that the PDM will be disbanded soon, he said, “What happened on Tuesday was unfortunate but the PDM will continue its struggle.”

On the resignations issue, Zardari has asked Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan and promised to hand over the resignations to the latter. Gillani told the media that the PPP Central Executive Committee will take the final decision on the issue.

Babar said, “The CEC meeting is convened on April 4 on the occasion of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s death anniversary every year in Larkana. I believe the differences will be bridged through negotiation.”

He says that while many PDM leaders presume that the resignations will force Imran Khan to step down, nobody knows exactly what will happen.

Ahsan Iqbal of the PML-N, says, “If the PPP does not decide about the resignations, it will exit the PDM. In that case, we will implement our contingency plan and continue our struggle.”

However, a PPP insider told TNS on the condition of anonymity as he is not authorised to speak to the media, “The PPP will never agree to resignations. It will try to convince its allies that such an action would be counterproductive.”

It is true that the PPP has always laid claim to being the torchbearer of democracy, a champion of the parliament’s supremacy. The PPP’s advice to the PML-N has been such that it has benefitted democracy and the parliament.

If the PDM members resign and the government decides to hold by-elections on all the vacant seats, will the PDM members contest them? If yes, what is the guarantee that they would win the same number of seats?

In 2008, the PTI, the Jamaat-i-Islami and the PML-N had announced a boycott of the general elections over concerns that Gen Musharraf would rig the elections. However, Zardari persuaded Sharif to contest the polls. This allowed the parliament to pass the 18th Amendment and the National Finance Commission to reach another award.

In 2013, Nawaz Sharif came into power. Imran Khan alleged that the elections were rigged and the PPP expressed some doubts about transparency of elections but pledged not to derail democracy. When Imran staged a sit-in in Islamabad and urged other opposition parties, including the PPP and the JUI-F, to join him, the two parties firmly stood by Sharif and ‘saved the parliament’.

During the PDM meeting in Lahore, Zardari told the PDM leaders to participate “aggressively” in by-elections and Senate polls. The PDM won several by-polls seats.

In the Senate election, his strategy for fielding Gillani from Islamabad as the PDM’s candidate against Hafiz Sheikh, proved a success. Prime Minister Khan was then forced to seek a vote of confidence from the National Assembly.

The PPP has always advocated change of governments in Islamabad and the Punjab through in-house vote. Zardari had told Sharif that he can achieve the targets if his advice is followed by PDM. He still wants to take the parliamentary route for changes in the power corridors. The PML-N and the JUI-F want to force fresh elections by using street power.

Iqbal says, “If half of the National Assembly members resign, the parliament will stop being vibrant; therefore, resignations are indispensable.”

A few questions arise here.

If the PDM members resign and the government decides to hold by-elections on all vacant seats, will the PDM members contest them? If yes, what is the guarantee that they will win all the seats? If they don’t field their runners, the PTI will likely bag almost all seats. That could give it an unprecedented majority in the National Assembly. In such a scenario, the 18th Amendment could be reversed, or amended massively. Some of the PDM senators might then join or support the PTI, making legislation much easier for the ruling party.

After his brief statement after the PDM’s Islamabad meeting, Maulana Fazlur Rehman looked calm on Wednesday during a news conference in Peshawar. He urged the PPP to accept the decision of the majority on the resignations issue.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s brief statement after the Islamabad meeting was a speech as the PDM’s chief. Otherwise, he is close to both Zardari and Sharif. According to the PPP and PML-N insiders, Rehman has spoken to Sharif and Zardari on the phone and discussed how various scenarios could play out.

Qamar Zaman Kaira, the Punjab president of the PPP, says, “A difference of opinions is a routine matter in such alliances; it is resolved through dialogue. I believe that the PDM will resolve the issues by persuasion, not coercion.”

It is important to mention that the PPP’s government in Sindh is a factor in the decision. If the PPP resigns from Sindh Assembly, it will lose ground in the province, a loss it cannot afford.

Taking advantage of the situation in the PDM, two federal ministers, Fawad Chaudhry and Shibli Faraz, have made an offer to the PDM for reform of Senate election rules. Should the PDM accept the offer, this can lead to a truce between the ruling coalition and the opposition.

The writer is a senior journalist, teacher of journalism, writer and researcher. He tweets at @BukhariMubasher