The Jammu and Kashmir region can be described both as a socio-cultural melting pot and a geo-political hotspot. Here, many races and cultures crossed paths. The region is home to Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and several indigenous spiritual traditions.

Rivers that feed hundreds of millions downstream flow through it. Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Xinjiang and Tibet are its next-door neighbours. The region straddles two states that are arch enemies, namely Pakistan and India, Kashmir being the core reason for their animosity. A substantial part of Kashmir, including Jammu is in Indian control. The three countries that lay claim to parts of this region are all nuclear powers: India, Pakistan, and China. This raises the specter of a truly catastrophic conflict.

The checkered history of this region goes back several centuries but it became particularly contentious in 1947-48. Maharaja Hari Singh’s orchestration of the massacre of Muslims in Poonch district and its adjoining areas caused a huge unrest among Muslims across the border.

According to some estimates, close to 200,000 people were killed. This resulted in the tribal incursion into Kashmir that brought about an invasion by the Indian army. The Maharaja was coerced into signing an instrument of accession. That was a marked deviation from the basic principle of partition whereby Muslim majority areas were to be a part of Pakistan and areas with Hindus/Sikh majorities were to join India. The two countries have fought on several occasions but the stalemate has persisted. Fast forward: the situation in Kashmir became so explosive in 1989 that no possibility of restoration of normalcy in the foreseeable future remained.

Since 1989, Kashmir has been the locus of an insurgency against the high-handedness of the Indian state. The 1987 elections were flagrantly rigged by New Delhi. This triggered a violent reaction. By 1989, the Kashmiris’ non-violent demand for self-determination had turned into a full throated freedom struggle. Since then, many Kashmiris have called for a solution no less than complete independence.

India has accused Pakistan of stirring up trouble. Pakistan has accused India of oppressing Kashmiris just as Israelis persecute Palestinians. Hundreds of thousands of Kashmiris, mostly youngsters, have poured onto the streets only to be massacred. According to a conservative estimate, more than 70,000 Kashmiris have lost their lives since 1990, thousands have disappeared, many more have been tortured and hundreds of young people have been maimed and blinded by pellet guns.

Arundhati Roy makes an important point when she says, “Indians who valorise their own struggle for independence from the British rule and virtually worship those who led it are for the most part strangely opaque to Kashmiris who are fighting for the same thing”. The latest legislation has revoked the Articles 370 and 35-A of the Indian Constitution that gave Kashmir special protection against Indian immigration and property ownership.

India will now administer Kashmir as a “Union Territory”. This means that the central government could veto all local government decisions. The amendment has also brought changes to land ownership rights and preferential treatment for the people of the state in jobs and education. The move to end Kashmir’s autonomy also effectively cut 7 million people in Kashmir off from the outside world.

Ayesha Ray, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at King’s College, Pennsylvania, contends that the revocation of Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which allowed Kashmir a degree of autonomy, was perhaps the Indian government’s most undemocratic move against Kashmiris. The decision was made overnight, without consultation or political engagement with Kashmir’s various political entities. Feelings of betrayal and alienation now run deep among Kashmiris, who find no reason to place their trust in the central government. India’s declaration of Union territory status for Ladakh was another draconian step that was taken in utter transgression of the will of its residents.

An increasing number of people in Leh are now echoing the fears expressed in Kargil in August 2019 about political representation, safeguards for land ownership, job security, domicile status and protection under Schedule Six of the Indian constitution. Prime Minister Imran Khan immediately called the move illegal and a violation of the UNSC resolutions on Kashmir and the Simla Agreement between the two countries. In an article for The New York Times, the prime minister called the move an illegal annexation of Kashmir and warned of a nuclear shadow looming over the world.

After the abrogation of Kashmir’s special status, Pakistan managed to garner some support, most significantly from China, who pledged to stand shoulder to shoulder with Pakistan in “issues related to its core interests”. Turkey and Malaysia were unequivocal in support of Pakistan on Kashmir. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) also called for a peaceful resolution of the issue but did not exert any pressure on India for the sake of Kashmiris.

But the diplomatic success was short lived. Saudi Arabia maintained neutrality over the Kashmir issue and backed India on cross-border terror during Modi’s visit to Riyadh in October 2019. The UAE, too, has described the decision to scrap Article 370 as India’s internal matter. Moreover, four permanent members of the UN Security Council – the United States, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom — rejected the Chinese proposal for the council to take up the Kashmir issue.

These powers are quite insensitive to the fact that at this moment Kashmir is the most militarised zone in the entire world. More than half a million Indian soldiers have been deputed there. Besides, the Intelligence Bureau, the RAW and the National Intelligence Agency carry on reconnaissance but, in fact, these agencies are used to terrorise people. The Border Security Force, the Central Reserve Police Force and Jammu and Kashmir police do their own intelligence gathering. In such conditions, Kashmiris are condemned to live in terror of informers, double agents, and triple agents who could be close relatives or childhood friends.

The regional situation aggravated with the Pulwama incident orchestrated by Modi and his acolytes to win the election. The infamous Arnab Goswami leaked messaging has revealed an altogether new dimension to it. That I will take up in my next column.

The writer is Professor in the faculty of Liberal Arts at the Beaconhouse National University, Lahore