In recent days, Pakistan’s foreign policy has faced unprecedented challenges. It all started when Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi pressed for an emergency meeting of the OIC foreign ministers to discuss the recent deterioration in the human rights situation in Indian Occupied Kashmir. Dismayed when this did not happen, he warned that if the OIC leadership continued dilly-dallying, Pakistan would be compelled to go ahead with help from those Muslim countries which were willing to support it on the issue. Saudi Arabia took strong exception to the remarks and reportedly demanded repayment of part of its $3 billion deposit. It also suspended the $3.2 billion oil credit facility.

Pakistan was forced reportedly to borrow $1 billion from China to repay the Saudi loan. The foreign minister later said that the repayment was in no way an indication of a strained relationship between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. He categorically denied that Saudi Arabia had demanded the repayment of the loan. The Foreign Office too issued a statement to the effect.

Next, Chief of Army Staff Gen Bajwa visited Saudi Arabia to “overcome the minor hiccup in ties caused by the foreign minister’s statement”.

The hiccup points to a situation that is deeply problematic for Pakistan. Pakistan has, for the best part of its history, been looking for reliable partners. Its stated policy is one of bilateral relationships based on friendship, mutual cooperation and equality.

In practice, economic and military support has been a major concern. It is difficult to find fault with the approach. International relations everywhere in the world are premised on economic and strategic interests.

The problem, however, is that Pakistan has to look for support from powers with competing interests. It has long remained a US ally. However, the relationships between Pakistan and the US could not have been more ambivalent.

At one time, Pakistan was a key strategic partner of the US in Afghanistan Jihad under Gen Zia ul Haq. In 1987 it became the second-largest recipient of American aid after Israel. But the bonhomie gave way to mistrust in no time. By 1990, the US government had banned military and economic aid to Pakistan by invoking the Pressler Amendment.

Pakistan has also been a staunch ally of China, partly because of shared positions on India. The $62 billion CPEC seeks to radically improve Pakistani infrastructure and deepen economic and political ties between China and Pakistan.

Against the backdrop of the popular perception that China has already started challenging global leadership of the US, Pakistan finds itself in an unenviable position.

While Pakistan has a relatively smooth history of congenial strategic relationships with China, its relationship with the US has been uneven. While deeply disappointed by the growing economic and strategic ties between India and the US, Pakistan is still hoping that the US can successfully mediate and resolve the Kashmir issue.

In December, when Malaysia hosted a conference to discuss problems facing the Muslim countries and exploring the way out of them, Pakistan was willing to participate in it. However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE prevailed on Pakistan to withdraw from the summit because it was seen as a step towards the creation of a new bloc that might challenge Saudi leadership of the OIC.

The United Arab Emirates’ recognition of Israel also shows that the expression of bonhomie and Islamic unity and brotherhood counts for little when it comes to economic ties and national interest.

The summit was attended by Turkey, Iran, and Qatar among other delegations.

In a recent article, Dr Ali Awadh Asseri, called Erdogan a “megalomaniac neo-Ottoman” who had insatiable hegemonic designs. The adversarial relationships between Saudi-led Sunni bloc of the Gulf countries and Iran has been quite apparent.

The question is why can Pakistan, a sovereign country, not take its decisions? The answer is two-fold: economic vulnerability and the strategic mess Pakistan finds itself in. Geographically, Pakistan is bordered by India, Afghanistan, Iran and China. Pakistan and India have long been arch enemies. Pakistan also has a history of complicated relationships with Afghanistan.

The solution to Pakistan’s problems lies in addressing the issues that necessitate dependable partners. Pakistan needs a strong economy to avoid the embarrassments. Developments like the UAE’s recognition of Israel show that expression of bonhomie and Islamic unity and brotherhood counts for little when it comes to economic ties.

How to strengthen the economy is a relatively more straightforward question, at least from the perspective of an economist. Plugging the leaks and correcting the fundamentals of the economy - such as increasing productivity and expanding the export base – can solve economic problems in the medium to long run. Pakistan’s strategic relationships with its neighbors are a more intractable problem. On the face of it, the overall environment in the region cannot improve unless there is peace across the borders and within the borders. How peace will come to this region is the most critical question of our times.

In recent years, politics of hatred, divisiveness, and xenophobia in India has left little space for the advocates of peace in both India and Pakistan. The government of Pakistan has taken earnest steps to normalize relations with India. The release of captured pilot, Abhinandan, after the Balakot incident could have been met with a more mature Indian response. However, it did not turn out to be so. Unilateral change of the status of Indian Occupied Kashmir by India has dashed the hopes of any normalization of relationships between the nuclear neighbors in the near future.

However, history has some sobering lessons. Europe was ravaged after the World War II. Germany and France had torn each other apart. World War II was the most destructive war in history. The number of casualties was estimated to be around 60 million. The number of people killed in Europe alone was estimated to be around 20 million. But after World War II came to an end, not much was left except a desire for peace and cooperation.

Based on the Schuman plan, six countries signed a treaty to run their heavy industries – coal and steel – under a joint management. The six were Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg. They signed the Treaty of Rome, creating the European Economic Community (EEC), or ‘common market’.

The relationship between India and Pakistan has been adversarial from day one. Mass migration and the genocide that followed the partition of India have left enduring scars on the consciousness of the people. The alleged Indian role in the dismemberment of Pakistan in 1971 is another reason why Pakistan cannot trust India.

If there can be peace in Europe, why not in South Asia?

The writer is an   Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus