Since the passing of the Panama verdict almost eight months ago, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has proved rumours about his political fate to be false. His party hasn’t disintegrated and the assorted group of electables he put together on his return from exile in 2008 hasn’t fragmented. Despite rumours of a split between the two brothers, Nawaz and Shahbaz, his family stands together, and the differences between Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan and PML-N central leadership have been brushed aside.

Even, in the Senate elections on March 3, some of PML-N MPAs in Punjab Assembly voted against the party discipline, and shortly after, in the Senate chairman elections, some seven party senators voted against the party discipline. But speculations about large-scale defections didn’t materialise.

Political analysts give two explanations why PML-N is still united. First, the party has distributed rewards among the electables in Punjab to keep his group of electables, mostly from southern and western Punjab, loyal to him in his time of ordeal. He controls the sources of patronage and rewards in Punjab. Also, the fact that the party is in power in Punjab and Centre makes it extremely relevant in the politics of central and northern Punjab. "His party would have disintegrated if he had not been in power," says Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based senior political analyst.

Second, some analysts think that because the League’s ticket in the forthcoming elections guarantees success in the local constituencies in central and north Punjab, therefore local influentials consider it safe to remain within the fold of the ruling party.

"The local electables didn’t leave him primarily because his ticket is still very valuable," says Zaigham Khan, a political commentator. "The second factor is that he is still in a position to distribute rewards among his constituency."

The months leading up to the general elections later this year will be crucial for Nawaz Sharif and his party. The verdict of the accountability court in the NAB case against Nawaz Sharif could possibly increase the pressure on them. "Nawaz Sharif’s biggest political challenge is whether he remains in control of the party if he is convicted by the accountability court," says Rizvi.

In about two months, the federal and provincial governments may be dissolved, and Nawaz Sharif may not be in control of patronage and rewards. "The three months of the caretaker government will be crucial in judging whether his party remains intact," Rizvi adds.

Despite his campaign against the military post-Panama verdict, maintaining stable relations with the military will be a challenge for him in times leading up to the elections.

At present, the military is concerned about the developing countervailing force in Punjab -- the province, which provides support base to the military as well as acts as its recruiting ground. "There seems to be an emerging concern within the military over the development of countervailing force in Punjab… in most of Pakistan’s history this countervailing force has remained restricted in the smaller provinces like Balochistan and Sindh," says Saeed Shafqat, an eminent historian of civil-military relations in Pakistan.

Presently, Nawaz Sharif is emerging as the most visible face of this countervailing force to the military in Punjab. It is fashionable to be anti-establishment in the country’s politics nowadays but even Nawaz Sharif knows that keeping such adversarial relations with the military will push him further away from power.

A senior Muslim League leader, on condition of anonymity, tells TNS that an intense debate is underway in the party over how to evolve a strategy to restrict the criticism of the military and judiciary to issues related to the current political situation arising out of the Panama verdict.

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For instance, there are people in the ruling party who say that Nawaz Sharif should not present normalisation of relations with India as a policy option before this general election. "There are people within the party who are advocating that PML-N should not develop adversarial relations with the military establishment while at the same time continue with the narrative of Nawaz Sharif," says the Muslim League leader.

Though they don’t use the term "countervailing force" (a military term coming from the military sources), the PML-N leaders do realise that the image of an adversarial force against the military in the country’s politics could prove disastrous for the party strategy in the coming elections.

The narrative of defiance adopted by Nawaz Sharif is in complete contrast with the pro-military narrative of Imran Khan. Sharif’s narrative of defiance is making the conservative elements in the ruling party nervous buy are putting up a brave face.

There is fear in the ruling party that if stretched to the limit, the narrative of defiance will transform the party and could deprive it of the traditional support base in the society. The Muslim League’s traditional support base could feel attracted to the pro-military narrative of Imran Khan.

However, the situation on the ground is telling a different story. Zaigham Khan says the religious right is not turning away from the ruling Muslim League as indicated in recent by-elections. "The emergence of new religious groups -- Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan and Milli Muslim League -- may make a dent in the conservative vote bank of the PML-N. This apprehension has turned out to be false, if the Chakwal by-election is anything to go by… Chakwal by-election has proved that Khadim Hussain Rizvi is getting votes but there is no reduction in the number of votes for PML-N."

The PML-N governments in Islamabad and Lahore have distributed vast amounts of rewards among its clients in central and northern Punjab during the past five years. "They have distributed rewards among the middle-class in central and northern Punjab. This middle class is not ready to leave him now," says Rizvi.

The PML-N does not realise that the country’s establishment is targeting these middle-class voters. "It’s a trap. If we go after the military establishment in our election campaign in a big way, there is a great chance that we will lose the conservative middle-class following in big cities," says the Muslim League leader.