Not quite a phone call away

January 22, 2017

Pakistan’s army chief has called the Afghan president twice this year. But friendly gestures by the two sides won’t lead to any major breakthrough unless backed by action

Not quite a phone call away

Pakistan’s new Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has been knocking at the doors of the Afghan leadership since the onset of 2017, but he isn’t getting a positive response.

Rather than opening the doors and welcoming General Bajwa, President Ashraf Ghani has used every opportunity to highlight his government’s grievances and allegations against Pakistan. This prompted the Pakistani army chief to remind him that the blame-game would take Islamabad and Kabul nowhere and would instead benefit the militant groups operating in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.

Twice in the last 16 days, General Bajwa phoned President Ghani in a bid to revive talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, and improve Pak-Afghan relations. He made the first call on January 1 to wish Ghani a happy new year, and assure him of Pakistan’s support for the Afghan peace process.

On that day, Bajwa also called and sent new year greetings to Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dr Abdullah, the de facto prime minister in the national unity government since September 29, 2014 after a disputed presidential election, and the Afghan Army chief General Qadam Shah Shaheen.

The Afghan President on that occasion invited the Pakistan Army chief to pay a visit to Afghanistan, but there was no follow-up action to make the trip happen.

Still, this was a breakthrough -- as such phone calls had stopped. High-level bilateral meetings and visits too weren’t happening. Such was the indifference toward each other that even a phone call was widely welcomed and termed as the opening of a window of opportunity for improving bilateral ties.

All this while, the Afghan officials, lawmakers, civil society activists and the media kept up their campaign against Islamabad and accused it of involvement in every militant attack and almost all acts of terrorism due to its policy of allowing the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network leaders to stay in Pakistan. Despite the provocative statements coming out of Kabul, Islamabad showed patience and refused to become involved in verbal sparring. In fact, it avoided blaming the Afghan government whenever Afghanistan-based Pakistani militants launched and claimed responsibility for terrorist attacks in Pakistan.

Islamabad has made it clear it won’t take action against the Afghan Taliban leaders based in Pakistan as it believes this could bring the Afghan war to its cities and villages. Instead, it wants further efforts to bring Taliban to the negotiations table with the Afghan government even though it isn’t sure if Kabul is sincere in making a peace deal with Taliban.

Bajwa made his second phone call to Ghani on January 16 to offer condolences on the deaths caused by the bombings in Kabul, Kandahar and Lashkargah, capital of Helmand province, and extend sympathies to the families of the victims. When Ghani reportedly reminded him that the people who asserted responsibility for these attacks were living and recruiting fighters in Pakistan, Bajwa is said to have replied that the blame-game strengthened the elements inimical to peace in the region. Bajwa also proposed robust border management mechanism and intelligence cooperation to put a stop to movement of terrorists across the border.

It is unlikely that Ghani would agree to these proposals as his government last summer raised objection to the border management measures taken by Pakistan’s security forces that even triggered a clash at Torkham, and caused deaths to soldiers on both sides. As for intelligence sharing, this is revival of retired Army Chief General Raheel Sharif’s proposal when the two sides surprised everyone to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for cooperation between Pakistan’s ISI and Afghanistan’s NDS.

Many Afghans baulked at the idea and their intelligence agency officials termed it unworkable.

Such strident opposition made Ghani and his National Security Advisor Mohammad Hanif Atmar helpless to get the MoU enforced even though the two had backed it and staked their political career on such a risky proposition.

There was some discrepancy in the words that were uttered when both sides issued statements to explain as to what Bajwa and Ghani had said in their phone conversation. While noting that Pakistan through military action had eliminated all safe havens in the country by going after militants of types, Bajwa reiterated Pakistan’s readiness to cooperate with the Afghan government and people to eliminate terrorism affecting peace and stability in the region.

Ghani wasn’t convinced as he complained that Pakistan had not taken action against the militants, arguing that lack of resolve on the part of Islamabad against this joint threat can pose huge threats to Pakistan and the region. He proposed serious and comprehensive talks between the two countries to tackle this threat as the Afghan government and people didn’t want repetition of the 2016 situation in 2017 when Taliban attacks registered an increase and casualties in Afghanistan went up.

However, any hope that Bajwa’s telephone diplomacy would break the ice quickly gave way to skepticism when three major attacks took place on January 11 in the capital, Kabul, at the Taliban birthplace of Kandahar, and in Lashkargah, capital of neighbouring, poppy-rich Helmand province. Over 250 persons were killed and injured in the three bomb explosions and suicide attacks.

The highest death toll was in Kabul where the attackers struck near the Parliament building and killed mostly parliamentary officials and security personnel along with civilians.

However, the attack inside the Governor’s House in Kandahar was far more serious as five visiting UAE diplomats were killed and the country’s ambassador to Afghanistan was wounded.

The 12 persons killed were known people, and included Kandahar deputy governor Abdul Ali Shamsi, Afghan diplomat to United States Yama Qureshi, Wolesi Jirga (National Assembly member from Jawzjan province) Baz Muhammad and Senator Sirajuddin Safari. Businessman Hashim Karzai, the cousin of former President Hamid Karzai, succumbed to his injuries in India where he was shifted for treatment.

The 18 wounded included Kandahar Governor Humayun Azizi, who too is under treatment in India.

Taliban claimed responsibility for the attacks in Kabul and Helmand, but denied involvement in the incident in Kandahar and blamed ‘internal rivalry’ as the cause of the blast in the Governor’s House guesthouse.

Taliban clearly pointed fingers at the Kandahar Police Chief General Abdul Raziq, who is involved in a long-running feud with Taliban in Kandahar. Raziq, who is fiercely anti-Pakistan, soon after the Kandahar blast blamed the Haqqani network and the ISI for the attack. National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar, heading a fact-finding mission, too hinted at Pakistan’s involvement by arguing that the attack was planned outside Afghanistan and these explosives were used for the first time in his country.

This was surprising because the Afghan officials as usual were quick to assign blame without waiting for completion of the investigations into the Kandahar attack. The state-sponsored propaganda against Pakistan provoked many Afghans to stage protests at the Pakistani embassy in Kabul and its consulate in Herat.

It was obvious that the already unfriendly Pak-Afghan relations had turned hostile. It is possible General Bajwa would eventually undertake the visit to Afghanistan as Kabul has always been keen to talk to Pakistan Army and ISI chiefs due to its understanding that decision-making concerning Islamabad’s Afghan policy is heavily influenced by its military high command. Also, the Afghan government would want to test the resolve of the new Pakistan Army chief after having found his predecessor General Raheel Sharif a powerful partner in peacemaking activities at least for some months after Ghani’s installation as president in late 2014.

Though Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s elected government appeared to have been sidelined when Bajwa began making phone calls to the Afghan leadership, it wasn’t unusual or surprising as the men in uniform have been calling the shots in terms of the direction of Pakistan’s policy towards Afghanistan and India.

However, a visit by Bajwa to Kabul or the use of nice, friendly words by the two sides won’t lead to any major breakthrough unless utterances are backed by action. Islamabad has made it clear it won’t take action against the Afghan Taliban leaders based in Pakistan as it believes this could bring the Afghan war to its cities and villages. Instead, it wants further efforts to bring Taliban to the negotiations table with the Afghan government even though it isn’t sure if Kabul is sincere in making a peace deal with Taliban.

The Afghan government, on the other hand, is seeking a clear decision by Pakistan to bring Taliban to the talks or military initiate action against them.

As there is still no meeting point on this issue, it appears the stalemate on the political front would continue, and the fighting would intensify causing further suffering to the Afghan people, whether soldiers, Taliban fighters or civilians.

Not quite a phone call away