The long overdue population census of the country is in the spotlight once again, in the country’s top court as well as the parliament.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan took suo motu notice of the almost 18 years delay in the sixth population census in June 2016. In the previous hearing of the case, it rejected the government’s reasons for delay in the census. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), in its report submitted before a three-judge bench of the apex court, stated that the due census is proposed to be held in March/April 2017 on the traditional old (manual) method and subject to availability of the armed forces.

The court rejected the government’s conditions placed on the holding of census and ordered to submit "a clear and unambiguous report" on the matter. The chief justice of Pakistan also observed the status quo appears to suit political parties who believe that, once a census is conducted, the number of seats in the assembly will have to be shuffled.

Experts and analysts assume the delay in census is due to lack of political fears of documentation leading to drastic changes in demography calling for political and electoral implications; technical hitches; and non-availability of a large number of armed forces troops (around 25 per cent of the personnel of the standing force) for ensuring security and enabling the sanctity of this much-needed exercise.

"In the prevailing situation, the delay in census is linked to security provision and lack of political will. It is an exercise that is conducted by technicians but it’s a political document that is used for political purposes and everything depends on census," says Reza Ali, a prominent urban planner and researcher based in Lahore. "The population figures will have weightage in resource allocation -- the awards for provinces in the National Finance Commission. Also, the census results will impact the number of seats in the national and provincial assemblies and hence have the potential to change the balance of power."

He thinks the post-census changes within the provinces will be much more acute. "Within Punjab province, the central Punjab will stand to lose; there will be a rise in population figures in Seraiki and southern Punjab belts. In Sindh, there will be increase in Upper Sindh while the political power rests with the middle and lower Sindh.

"In Balochistan, the balance of population between the Makran, Baloch and Pakhtun belts will also change the ethnic balance in the province. Similarly, there will be demographic changes in Quetta. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa there will be significant changes because, despite the conflict, Swat and lower Dir have developed a lot whereas traditionally Charsadda, Nowshera and Mansehra etc. have ruled the province. So, politically, everybody will be uncomfortable," says Ali.

Around14.5 billion Rupees have already been allocated to hold the next census. According to the main findings of the 1998 census, Pakistan’s population was 132.35 million which was 33.74 million in 1951 and 84.52 million according to the 1981 population census. There was over 57 per cent increase in population from 1981-1998. Of the total, 55.62 per cent population was concentrated in the Punjab, while Balochistan that comprises 44 per cent area of Pakistan had only 4.96 per cent of the total population. The country was ranked seventh largest country of the world population-wise as a result of the 1998 census.

"The holding of the overdue census threatens the present demographic composition of Sindh and Balochistan more where there are issues of ethnicity. And that is why, a sense of protection and credibility is required with the help of armed forces to maintain law and order if there are any such incidents" says Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the founder President of PILDAT (Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency.

The problem is that everyone seems to think that the army is needed to make the exercise secure and credible. The army has apparently submitted before the Supreme Court that the government needs to use modern methods, including reliance on Nadra’s database, to improve the credibility of the census.

Reza Ali also calls for adopting modern techniques and advanced methodologies. "My main concern is that without technical improvement and advanced technology, there cannot be a credible census. This documentation on five-year old manual forms needs to be rethought; otherwise it will not give credible results and will possibly be manipulated through manual forms."

Giving one non-political example, he cites the still unheard demand of transgender community to include a separate column in census which is being resisted on the pretext of having manual forms printed already.

To come back to the political implications of census, Mehboob says there are less chances of "any big change in the balance of population in the Punjab province. If currently its share is 56 per cent, it might go down up to 50 per cent but not below this."

"In fact, in the seventh NFC Award, Punjab has already conceded some of its share," he says, adding the census should be conducted "as early as possible before the next elections".

Following the Supreme Court hearing on Nov 17, federal minister for States and Frontier Regions Abdul Qadir Baloch told the National Assembly on Nov 22 that the government is committed to hold the population census in March 2017 and that the next general elections will be held on the basis of new census.

Federal law minister Zahid Hamid tells TNS the government has set the target to conduct the census in the country in March next year. "There are no political fears or apprehensions. The census has been delayed due to the non-availability of army personnel which are required for security and transparency. The Council of Common Interests (CCI) in its meeting in March this year had directed the census to be held under army for transparency and credibility."

Rejecting the impression that the government is reluctant to hold the census amid fears of political implications, he says: "We believe the census results will be actually beneficial for the province of Punjab."