Ambiguous death claims

December 13, 2015

Mansoor may have survived this or other attempts on his life, his troubles are far from over

Ambiguous death claims

For more than two years until July 2015, Mulla Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor had successfully kept hidden the news of the death of his boss, Afghan Taliban supreme leader Mulla Mohammad Omar.

On December 2, Mansoor himself was at the receiving end as the news of his death in an alleged shootout the previous night near Quetta began circulating in the media. It was big news and couldn’t be suppressed because Mansoor had become the new Taliban ameer (head) only four months ago and the likely loss of their second leader could have been devastating for the Taliban.

The 52-year old Mansoor was confronted with a difficult and rather bizarre situation as sections of the Afghan government including a spokesman for First Vice President General Abdul Rasheed Dostum and the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the commanders of a rival Taliban group Mohibullah and Naeem Niazi and some of the media organisations were confidently claiming and reporting that he was wounded or probably killed in the incident. Taliban denials were dismissed out of hand as their credibility had been damaged after having denied umpteenth time the death of Mulla Omar and conceded it reluctantly when it was no longer possible to hide it.

Five days after the incident that allegedly happened in Kuchlak town near Balochistan’s capital, Quetta, an audio tape was released in which a man introduced by a Taliban broadcaster as Mansoor was heard denying that he had been attacked. He claimed he has not been to Kuchlak in years and termed the reported incident as part of rumours and enemy propaganda.

Mansoor’s audio message in Pashto language was posted on the official website of Taliban movement, which in recent years has become quite sophisticated in its handling of the media and also its sleek production of video footage of Taliban’s battlefield exploits. The tape was 16 minutes, 53 seconds long and nowhere one felt that the speaker is wounded or fatigued. The voice appeared familiar and sounded like that of Mansoor.

Some Taliban from the rival group headed by Mulla Mohammad Rasool doubted it was Mansoor as they felt the voice was of a younger man, possibly of his brother. Some even claimed the audio tape had been doctored. Those who had claimed that Mansoor was killed were hard pressed to justify their claim and had to look for sources and persons who could corroborate it. However, most Taliban members who had met or known Mansoor said the voice was unmistakably his and not of someone else.

He didn’t rule out the possibility of peace dialogue with the Afghan government, but at the same time made it clear that talks would be held on Taliban terms and at the proper time.

It is obvious Taliban leadership was under pressure to provide evidence that Mansoor was alive. Though it quickly released an audio recording of Abdullah Sarhadi, the Taliban shadow governor of Wardak province in which he denied that he owned any house in Kuchlak or that the shootout involving him and Mansoor took place there, it didn’t satisfy critics who wanted Mansoor to issue the denial in his own voice. Mansoor eventually recorded his message, but the five-day delay contributed to the doubts and uncertainty about his fate.

The tape was obviously recent as Mansoor mentioned the incident in Syedabad district in Wardak province in which 10 children, mostly teenagers, were killed by a shell fired by Afghan soldiers. Mansoor condemned the incident and offered condolences to the bereaved families. The incident caused deep anger in Afghanistan and the government had to form a fact-finding commission to calm down protestors, including family members of the slain children who threatened to join the Taliban if those responsible for the deaths weren’t punished. The government soon afterwards announced the arrest of three soldiers and moved out the army unit that had fired the shells from Syedabad. President Ashraf Ghani even announced that a madrassa would be built in the village in memory of the deceased children as they were mostly seminary students and were playing outside the mosque at the time of the attack.

Though it is now obvious that Mansoor is alive, those still doubtful about the authenticity of the audio tape often refer to the Taliban leadership’s damaged credibility, particularly of Mansoor, in view of its role in concealing the news of Mulla Omar’s death. The founder of the 21-year old Taliban movement had reportedly died on April 23, 2013 when Nato forces were finalising plans for gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan, but the Taliban finally admitted this fact on July 29, 2015.

Mansoor and six other Taliban figures who knew of Mulla Omar’s death were hailed by many for keeping the information secret despite being under constant surveillance by several leading intelligence agencies and also under watch by a prying media. It showed that the Taliban leadership could keep its secrets while fighting against some of the mightiest armies of the world. Mulla Omar’s only surviving brother, Mulla Abdul Mannan and eldest son, Mulla Mohammad Yaqoob, were among the seven people who knew about his death and all of them had decided not to reveal it as this could have demoralised Taliban fighters and caused division in their ranks due to the worry that the next leader won’t be able to unify and keep the organisation intact. Their worry wasn’t misplaced as Mulla Omar’s death eventually led to a split in Taliban ranks with Mansoor heading the dominant faction and Mulla Rasool, the relatively unknown former Taliban governor of Nimruz province leading the splinter group.

Mansoor may have survived this or other attempts on his life, his troubles are far from over. He is now running a blood-feud with the family of rebel Taliban commander Mansoor Dadullah, who along with his elder brother Maula Dad aka Haji Lala and several of his men was recently killed in fighting with Mansoor’s fighters in Zabul province. The feud was triggered by the assassination some years ago of Mulla Dadullah, one of the top Taliban commanders, for which the family blamed Mansoor and his aides. Though weakened, the Dadullah family would keep trying to avenge the deaths by targetting Mansoor.

As all attention was focused on Mansoor’s fate, some important points that he made in his audio tape went unnoticed. They were of huge interest in context of the prevailing situation following the renewed push by Kabul, Islamabad and Washington to hold peace talks with the Taliban. One point was Mansoor’s acknowledgement about differences in Taliban ranks even though he insisted that these haven’t reached a stage that they would start killing each other. He didn’t rule out the possibility of peace dialogue with the Afghan government, but at the same time made it clear that talks would be held on Taliban terms and at the proper time. He didn’t spell out those terms, though he did mention the Taliban demand for enforcement of Shariah, or Islamic law, in Afghanistan. He didn’t talk about the Taliban demand for complete withdrawal of foreign forces from the country, but it has always been their foremost condition for talks.

Mansoor also claimed that nobody could order Taliban to do something. It seems he was trying to show that Taliban take independent decisions and not as instructed by Pakistan. So was he sending a message to Islamabad? Or perhaps to Kabul which has repeatedly claimed that Taliban are Pakistan’s proxies?

Ambiguous death claims