From al-Qaeda to ISIS

The group has taken on more enemies than it could possibly fight

From al-Qaeda to ISIS

The Islamic State, or Daesh as it is referred to in Arabic, has become such a huge threat that the greatest powers in the world are finding it difficult to tackle it.

In fact, the failure to defeat the ISIS has triggered a blame-game among some of these powers for the dire situation now prevailing not only in the Middle East, but also elsewhere in the world.

Perhaps never in the past has a militant group occupied so much territory that it now runs a de facto state with a full-fledged administration headed by its ‘caliph’ Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. This state transcends borders because it stretches from Syria to Iraq, thereby materialising the ISIS objective of creating a caliphate across two countries to begin with and aiming to extend it further.

The state managed by the ISIS hasn’t been recognised by any country or organisation and will never gain recognition, but this doesn’t seem to bother its head Baghdadi, the 44-year old Iraqi national whose real name is Ibrahim Awwadty Ibrahim Ali Muhammad al-Badri and is also known as Abu Dua. He has created a state through the use of force in the shortest possible time, much to the surprise of the world and is able to sustain it through the power of committed fighters and by gaining access to oil revenues.

The ISIS has inspired individuals and other militant groups across continents like never before. Young and impressionable men with Islamic leanings from not only Muslim countries but also the West have travelled to Iraq and Syria to join the ranks of the ISIS. Even many women have flocked to its banner primarily through the pull of the internet messages containing recruitment propaganda. Some of the armed groups have withdrawn allegiance from al-Qaeda and pledged loyalty to the ISIS. The al-Qaeda’s losses have resulted into gains for the ISIS.

Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, who took over as the al-Qaeda leader after the assassination of its founder Osama bin Laden in the US Special Forces raid on his hideout in Abbottabad in May 2011, was so alarmed by the rise of ISIS that he recently proposed that all the jihadi groups in Syria, including the ISIS and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Al Nusra Front should join hands and help each other to fight the Syrian regime and the United States. Not long ago, Zawahiri had accused Baghdadi of committing sedition.

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There is no doubt al-Qaeda was pioneer of the global jihad. It inspired thousands of Muslims to take part in the Afghan war, which it termed as the first real jihad in modern times, against the Soviet occupying forces in the 1980s. The late Palestinian Islamic scholar, Dr Abdullah Azzam and Shaikh Omar Abdur Rahman, the blind Egyptian preacher now jailed in the US, came to Peshawar to organise the Muslim volunteers flocking to Pakistan on the way to Afghanistan to take part in the war against the Afghan communist regime and the Soviet Red Army.

Younger volunteers at the time, such as bin Laden and Zawahiri, carried forward the message and in turn inspired fighters like Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who reached Iraq from the Afghan war theatre to lead a new generation of jihadis.

Zarqawi was so ruthless even by al-Qaeda standards that he was reprimanded by Zawahiri as he was seen as a problem child for al-Qaeda due to his attacks against the Shias. The Jordanian-born Zarqawi was the founder and leader of the ISIS predecessor al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and was able to capture large swaths of territory in Iraq until his death in 2006. In fact, Zarqawi was the reason for the differences and the widening gulf in the ranks of al-Qaeda. It is thus hardly surprising that Baghdadi and his ISIS followers are inspired more by Zarqawi than bin Laden or Zawahiri.

The death of bin Laden and the inability of Zawahiri to play a more active role from his hideout in the Af-Pak region away from the latest jihadi battlegrounds in the Middle East has weakened al-Qaeda and handed the ISIS an opportunity to fill the vacuum and gain strength. By capturing territory, the ISIS has overtaken al-Qaeda and become a magnet for jihadis the world over.

A number of Afghan and Pakistani Taliban came together to establish the Khorasan unit of the ISIS and even managed to capture a few districts in Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province bordering Pakistan. Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Shabab in Somalia, the Sinai province affiliate in Egypt, affiliates in Yemen and Libya, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), factions of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, etc, have all declared allegiance to the ISIS. Some were previously affiliated to al-Qaeda, though they didn’t criticise it while quitting it and joining the ISIS.

Though Zawahiri reacted by setting up the al-Qaeda in South Asia branch and pledging loyalty to the new Afghan Taliban leader Mulla Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor after the death of Mulla Mohammad Omar, it is obvious the ISIS still has more pull factors in favour than al-Qaeda. However, al-Qaeda is likely to benefit in the long run as it is being largely left alone and the focus of attention and anger of the world and regional powers is presently the ISIS.

The ISIS has taken on more enemies than it could possibly fight. The downing of the Russian passenger plane in Egypt forced Russia to join the battle and carry out some of the fiercest bombardment of the ISIS capital, Raqqa, in Syria and other targets. The recent coordinated terrorist attacks at six places in Paris killing 129 civilians has forced France to intensify its airstrikes against ISIS in Syria. The ISIS has also earned the ire of the Western world and also many other nations. The ISIS military advances in Iraq and Syria have halted though it still controls Iraq’s second biggest city, Mosul, and also large areas in Syria’s Alleppo, Idlib and Raqqa provinces.

Airstrikes would certainly deplete the ISIS strength, but pushing back its determined fighters may not be accomplished without boots on the ground. However, the US and its Western allies, Russia, the Arab countries and Turkey appear reluctant to send their soldiers into battle to capture territory held by the ISIS. Also, the lack of consensus on Syria’s future and the fate of President Bashar al-Assad, who is loathed by the Western, Turkish and Arab governments and backed by Russia and Iran, would remain a hurdle in forming a joint military front against the ISIS.

On its part, the ISIS would continue to plan and execute suicide missions not only in Turkey and the Arab states opposed to it but also in the West. Its ability to undertake such attacks would be curtailed due to stricter security and border controls in Europe and other Western countries in the wake of the Paris assaults, but the ISIS and affiliates would still find loopholes to strike at vulnerable places.

From al-Qaeda to ISIS