Election arithmetic

June 7, 2015

The loyalties of the independents are to play a key role in the formation of district and tehsil governments

Election arithmetic

Amid complaints of unprecedented rigging and mismanagement by almost every political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)) emerged to be leading in most number of districts in the May 30 local government elections. After losing ground in the 2013 general elections, the Awami National Party (ANP) won a good number of seats for the district and tehsil councils, especially in the Peshawar Valley. Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Fazal (JUI-F), Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) and Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) are also likely to make governments in their respective strongholds. Pakistan People’s Party and Qaumi Watan Party of Aftab Sherpao seem nowhere in the LG polls as both could get hardly a few district and tehsil council seats from all over the province.

The polls held all over KP on a single day were marred by mismanagement, poor security and rigging. Almost all the parties staged protest demonstrations in one or the other district against the KP government. ANP chief Asfandyar Wali Khan even demanded re-election not only for the local governments but for the KP provincial assembly, saying PTI government has failed to deliver.

ANP party leadership is angry at the PTI government over the arrest of Mian Iftikhar Hussain, party’s central general secretary, on the murder charges of a PTI worker, Habibullah. The PTI worker was mysteriously shot dead during a celebratory rally in Pabbi, close to the place where Mian Iftikhar was present.

According to Mian Iftikhar Hussain, had an army officer not rescued him in his official jeep the mob was uncontrollable after the death of the worker and was about to attack him. The arrest of the senior nationalist leader triggered a countrywide condemnation for the PTI government, calling political victimisation through the police. Mian Iftikhar was released on bail by the court the next day after the father of the deceased worker said he nominated him only under the pressure of some people.

Polling was suspended on a number of polling stations after clashes, snatching of ballot boxes and allegations of fake votes. "We have written to the Election Commission for re-polling at 26 polling stations in Peshawar where voting was suspended after clashes," says Deputy Commissioner Peshawar, Riaz Khan Mahsud.

Some candidates believe the government should announce the official result on due date as those in power can change the result in re-polling. "I secured 1186 votes while the runner up has obtained 883 votes. The PTI and ANP supporters clashed on one of our polling stations due to which the voting was stopped there. Now in case of re-polling we fear that supporters of PTI candidate will do the maximum to give him lead," Haroon-ur-Rashid, an independent district council candidate from Union Council 28 Peshawar said.

Not only the opposition parties but even two of the three components of the coalition government in KP complained of massive rigging. The smaller coalition partners in the KP government, JI and Awami Jamhoori Ittehad Pakistan (AJIP), are angry over rigging. AJIP, led by senior minister in the KP government Shahram Khan Tarakai, has accused ANP and the district administration of rigging in the LG polls in Swabi, where PTI and his party suffered a crushing defeat.

The JI, however, has not accused any opposition party but the major partner in the coalition government, PTI, of involvement in the rigging and mismanagement in the elections. The allegations first levelled by district Peshawar amir of JI Sabir Hussain Awan and later by provincial chief Professor Mohammad Ibrahim mounted tension between the two coalition partners.

"The KP government broke all the records of rigging in the LG elections. We cannot remain silent if a collation partner is doing something wrong," said Professor Mohammad Ibrahim. He offered that the JI will apologise if PTI chief Imran Khan proved no rigging was done in the polls. Sabir Hussain Awan, was more specific. "The rigging plan was chalked out at the Chief Minister’s House."

The PTI and JI were expected to form governments in majority of the districts in case of their alliance. However, both the parties separately contested the polls in majority districts, including Peshawar. They fielded candidates against each other and now the losing partner has started accusing PTI to be involved in polls rigging. This strengthened the opposition parties, leading to the formation of an alliance by the JUI-F, ANP and Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP).

"ANP has performed well in the polls all over the KP, especially in Peshawar Valley. The party has got enough seats in Charsadda, Mardan, Swabi and Torghar districts to form district and tehsil governments, alone or in alliance with other partners. The independents, however, will play an important role in formation of the governments," Tauseefur Rahman, Peshawar-based journalist, tells TNS. As many as 16 independent candidates were elected district councillors alone in Mardan.

PTI will be able to make government in more districts than any other political party. It has got a huge majority in Peshawar. The party has got a good number of seats in Nowshera, Haripur, Battagram, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohat, Mardan and a couple of other towns and are able to form district governments alone or in support with JI and independents. JI has got enough seats to form governments in their strongholds, Dir Upper and Dir Lower. However, a large number of district governments are likely to be formed by the opposition parties if they successfully got the support of the independently elected district and tehsil councillors.

ANP has re-emerged by performing well in Swabi, Mardan, Charsadda and Torghar. The JUI-F will be able to make district governments in many southern districts, including Bannu, Tank, Lakki Marwat and Hangu. Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz suffered a setback in Haripur but it otherwise did well in Hazara division and Swat and Shangla districts of Malakand division.

Now the loyalties of the independents are to play a key role either for the government or opposition parties in the formation of district and tehsil governments. These independents are to join one or the other party within three days of the official announcement of the polls result.

Election arithmetic