"Cricketing logic suggests New Zealand vs South Africa in the final"

February 8, 2015

South Africa seems to be the winner of the final

The 11th edition of the Cricket World Cup is now few days away, teams have started reaching Australia and New Zealand with the aim of lifting the ICC Cricket World Cup Trophy on March 29.

The first phase of the World Cup, like 1996 and 2011, is predictable. There is hardly any chance for a major team to miss the berth to the knockout stage like in 2007 when Pakistan and India crashed out of the race in the first phase.

If there isn’t any major upset and the first stage remains upset-free then eight quarter finalists would be Australia, England, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka from Pool A and Pakistan, India, South Africa, West Indies from Pool B.

Talking about Pool A, New Zealand is tipped as favourite to lead the tables in first stage.

New Zealand has reached the World Cup semi-finals six times (2011, 2007, 1999, 1992, 1979 and 1975) but it has never been able to play the big match -- the final of the World Cup. This time, the current form of black caps puts them as one of the favourites to win the World Cup.

Indeed, it is the best chance for the New Zealand to lift the World Cup.

Co-hosts and four-time champions -- Australia -- is another team to watch out in the mega event. Uncertainty over Michael Clarke’s fitness may be an issue, but the strong bench strength gives the Australian team management nothing to worry about.

The victory in recently concluded tri-series will further boost the morale of Australians, who can always pose threat to any team when they’re playing at the homeground.

Winner of 1996 World Cup, Sri Lanka, is an experienced side. Having Mahela Jayawardene and Kumar Sangakkara in the lineup, Sri Lanka looks a dangerous batting side. But, uncertainty over Malinga’s fitness remains a big concern for the former champions.

Although, Sri Lanka didn’t do well in tour to New Zealand, Sri Lanka remains a dangerous side and potential threat to the opponents in the World Cup.

England is also struggling with form, although they played the final of tri-nation series in Australia where they lost the final to Australia, England has won only four of the last twelve ODIs they have played.

In batting department, England will be depending on Moeen Ali, Joe Root, and Ravi Bopara while in bowling, England has James Anderson, Steven Finn, and Stuart Broad who are always considered as genuine wicket-takers.

One can’t rule out any possibility but the current form of England isn’t sufficient enough to make them as the favourite team, but still England can’t be underestimated.

Of Pool B teams, South Africa is the most dangerous side. The recent form of "most valuable player" AB de Villiers gave a clear message to the bowlers, "get ready for being destroyed".

South Africa have been historically unlucky in the World Cup events, but this time they’ve got the best set of players who are capable of removing chokers’ tag off.

Apart from dangerous AB de Villiers, they’ve Hashim Amla who’s the best batsman in modern day cricket. Quinton de Kock, Faf du Plessis and J.P. Duminy make South Africa’s batting line look strongest of all the teams playing in the World Cup.

In bowling, they’ve Dale Steyn, Vernon Philander, Morne Morkel and Imran Tahir which is more than enough to put South Africa among top three favourite teams to lift the World Cup trophy.

Pakistan is unarguably the most unpredictable team; a unique group of cricketers who can either win the tournament, or get knocked out humiliatingly.

Placed in Pool B, Pakistan is looking to repeat the history of 1992 World Cup in Australia and New Zealand. Pre-tournament circumstances being faced by Pakistan is not different from what Imran Khan’s cornered tigers faced in 1992 before winning the final in Melbourne.

Pakistan’s current ODI form is not so impressive. The team is also facing fitness issues, and they are going to be without the main bowlers: Saeed Ajmal and Junaid Khan. But, as considered an unpredictable side, Pakistan is capable of stunning any team on a given day.

In batting, along with experienced trio of skipper Misbah ul Haq and former captains Shahid Afridi and Younis Khan, the attacking young opener Ahmad Shahzad will be very important for Pakistan. Haris Sohail and Yasir Shah can do good but the bowling line will mainly be depending on the 7 feet tall Mohammad Irfan.

For defending champions India, the pre-tournament outing to Australia turned out to be a nightmare. After being humiliated in the test series, they were knocked down in the tri-nation series as well. MS Dhoni’s men might have acclimatised well in the conditions but players’ fatigue is likely to dent India’s chances.

Besides Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma or the skipper MS Dhoni, there is hardly anyone else who can be explosive in foreign conditions. India’s bowling attack is comparatively weak. Last but not the least, there will be no "home advantage" for the Indians this time.

West Indies, winner of the first two World Cups, is probably the weakest team of the top-eight in the World Cup. Player fallout with the West Indies Cricket Board has dented team’s buildup to the World Cup and has resulted in omission of experienced Dwayne Bravo and Kieron Pollard from the World Cup squad. Little-known, Jason Holder was named captain of the ODI side which might hamper the team’s chances in the mega event as well.

Adding insult to injury, Sunil Narine also withdrew from West Indies’ World Cup team, saying that he’s not prepared for the mega-event. Yet, they’ve exciting batsmen like Chris Gayle, Andre Russell, Darren Sammy, and Marlon Samuels, which makes West Indies’ batting, look an aggressive one.

With teams’ current form and likely results, the road to semi finals is likely to be:

New Zealand (A1) beats West Indies (B4), Australia (A2) beating India (B3), Pakistan (B2) beating England (A3), South Africa (B1) beating Sri Lanka (A4).

So, my four teams for the semi finals are: New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, and South Africa. Cricketing logic suggests New Zealand vs. South Africa in the final. But, in my biased view, no sight can be better than watching Misbah ul Haq lifting the World Cup on March 29. Hoping against hope, but let’s hope for the best and cheer for team Pakistan!

-- Faizan Lakhani, Geo sports reported based in Karachi.

"Cricketing logic suggests New Zealand vs South Africa in the final"