"We will have a Pakistan vs South Africa final"

February 8, 2015

We will have a Pakistan vs South Africa final. Who is going to go all the way? The head keeps saying South Africa but who’s listening!

Making predictions about the future is hazardous business and more so when we are talking about cricket and its biggest spectacle -- the World Cup. But over the years, just like Welsh inventor Alan Cox, I’ve figured that you can overcome the hazardous part if you make lots of predictions because people will forget the ones you get wrong and marvel over the rest.

I still remember making a series of predictions in what later turned out to be a near prophetic pre-World Cup piece for TNS back in 1999. Then I predicted that Pakistan will fall against minnows Bangladesh but will go on to reach the World Cup final at Lord’s where they will lose against Australia.

Then, many thought it was preposterous, especially the bit about Bangladesh beating us. But anybody who read it after the World Cup thought that either I was the modern-day Nostradamus or had moles sitting inside the very heart of the international match-fixing network. Quatrina Hosain, then our editor in Karachi, suggested I should put a clipping of my piece on the office notice board. I didn’t oblige partly because of my humility and partly because a couple of my predictions also went widely off the mark. But who cared? All of them were marveling over the rest.

Sixteen years on, I’ve been asked by the TNS team to take some wild guesses as to what will happen in World Cup 2015 to be co-hosted by Australia and New Zealand.

Let me begin by telling you that making predictions about cricket matches is also like betting on Shahid Afridi. There is an outside chance that you will hit gold but a big possibility that you will lose it all.

Back in 1999 I got lucky. I’m no Nostradamus and had no access to any bookie’s laptop. I just followed what my heart said.

I might not be wiser but I’m older now. I follow my head more than my heart. And my head says it’s going to be South Africa -- the perennial chokers of world cricket -- who will finally win the coveted crown next month. They were unlucky back in 1992, falling prey to ridiculous rain rules and then choked in 1999 when the Cup seemed within their grasp.

But a lot has changed since then. With the likes of AB de Villiers whom I see as a one-man demolition squad, the Proteas are like the West Indies of the seventies -- simply invincible.

Alongside De Villiers, there are men like the highly prolific Hashim Amla, Faf du Plessis, Quinton de Kock, David Miller, and JP Duminy who make South Africa the strongest batting side in the ODI format. Their bowling arsenal is equally potent with the lightning fast Dale Steyn at helm followed by Vernon Philander, Morne Morkel and Imran Tahir. If that’s not enough, South Africa are also the world’s best fielding side. From where I see it, they should have a cakewalk to the MCG finale on March 29.

Right behind South Africa are co-hosts Australia, the most successful team in ICC World Cup history. While the Proteas have time and again exhibited a lack of killer instinct, the Aussies have always had loads of it. They have a variety of match-winners like David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell and Michael Johnson and should rightly fancy their chances of winning a record fifth World Cup title.

Next in my pecking order for the World Cup are the other hosts -- New Zealand. The Black Caps amply underlined their firepower with a 2-0 crushing of Pakistan just days before the start of the World Cup.

Brendon McCullum is not just one of the best captains around but is also regarded among the biggest hitters of the cricket ball. Then there is Kane Willimson who is in the form of his life. Add to the mix players like Martin Guptill, Ross Taylor, Corey Anderson, and Luke Ronchi and you get a formidable batting lineup backed by bowlers like Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Kyle Mills, and Daniel Vettori.

This brings me down to predicting the fourth semi-finalist. And here’s where I succumb to my heart. Without any rhyme or reason, it suggests that Pakistan will somehow overcome all their shortcomings to reach the semis after finishing second in Pool B and taming old rivals India in the process on February 15. They will beat England (A3) in a last eight clash in Adelaide and then break Kiwi hearts in a photo finish in Auckland. In the other corner at the Melbourne finale will be South Africa who will thrash Sri Lanka in quarters before conquering Australia in Sydney.

So, we will have a Pakistan vs South Africa final. Who is going to go all the way? The head keeps saying South Africa but who’s listening!

-- The writer is a sports editor The News with a fetish for World Cup predictions.

"We will have a Pakistan vs South Africa final"