There is a big chance that Pakistan will shrug aside hosts Bangladesh on Sunday (today) and then conquer defending champions West Indies to virtually qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC World Twenty20 championship. That won’t be surprising because after all they are the only side to have always featured in the pre-finals since the inception of the tournament in 2007.

But that’s scenario number one in the list of possibilities.

Take a look at scenario number two.

There is almost an equal chance that Pakistan might fumble against the Bangladeshis and then go on to crumble in what would be a do-or-die game against the Windies to fall out of the race for last four. That wouldn’t be surprising either considering Pakistan’s track record as they have time and again collapsed even against lowly teams.

In the shortest format of the game, almost all title contenders would be facing similar scenarios ahead of the semis. But this unpredictability affects Pakistan much more than other top sides.

It always has. When very few gave them a chance, they prevailed in the 1992 World Cup in Australia and when many thought that they had enough ammunition to go all the way, they crashed at the first hurdle in the 2007 tournament in the Caribbean.

Pakistan are capable of snatching unbelievable wins from seemingly losing positions. Just take a look at the Asia Cup where they flirted with disaster in what was the match of the tournament against India before winning it courtesy two last-over sixers from Shahid Afridi off R Ashwin. In the next match, they seemed down and out against Bangladesh before Afridi came to their rescue again and took them past the finish line.

In many ways Afridi epitomises the Pakistan cricket team. When he clicks, he is simply sensational but when he misfires. Well, the less said the better.

But I’m not discussing Afridi here. I’m talking about the Pakistan team and its capability to present surprises, both pleasant and unpleasant ones. And more importantly, I’m wondering whether things can change.

With Pakistan it is almost always a gamble. Whether you like it or not, they are a largely unpredictable side with players who can punch way beyond their weight in one match and then under perform in the very next one.

With little talent for gambling, personally I would like that to change. I would like the Pakistan team to change into a more reliable unit. But is it possible for our players to change, to shed their mercurial approach and replace it with an attitude that can inspire more trust and confidence?

I think it is though I know it won’t be easy.

There are so many factors that make sure that the ‘finished product’ of Pakistan cricket come in the shape of players like Shahid Afridi, Ahmad Shahzad, Nasir Jamshed, Sohaib Maqsood, Junaid Khan, Bilawal Bhatti etc. On his day either one of them can be truly world class. Our players are capable of churning out breathtaking performances but they are equally capable of making unforced and fatal errors at the drop of a hat.

The rot for Pakistan cricket begins at the grassroots level. Unlike countries like Australia where there are top class nurseries in place, Pakistan is like the Wild West. In this country, players almost always rise on the basis of sheer talent alone. For better or for worse they are self-taught. Very few of them get proper training, coaching and mentoring. They learn how to hit the ball but do not have the technique to survive when the going gets tough. That is why even highly-rated Pakistani players like their Twenty20 captain Mohammad Hafeez are clueless when they face the likes of Dale Steyn in challenging batting conditions.

It’s a different story in other established cricket nations.

I was in Australia when Pakistan last played Test and limited-overs matches there a few years ago. I was invited to a school championship match in Sydney. It was a cool morning and one of the captains decided to bowl first to make good use of what seemed like good bowling conditions. But one of the openers, a lanky 15 year old didn’t think so. He hit a series of fours and sixes but each time he went for his shot his coach, sitting next to me, frowned. At the first drinks break he gave the boy a dressing down.

Later, I asked him why wasn’t he happy with a perfectly solid batting display. "Look, this is a three-day game and this boy is hitting the ball as if we are in a T20 match. He is one of our better batsmen but with each shot he is very close to losing his wicket," he told me. "I will be happy if he scores 20 by lunch and is still standing there rather than him losing his wicket after getting a quick 50. That’s what I told him. We believe that a good batsman is somebody who is capable of staying on the wicket for as long as it is required by the team."

I don’t know how many coaches have similar lessons for their charges in Pakistan.

It’s not just about coaching. It’s also about how we pick our teams. Our selectors have developed this fatal habit of jumping the gun when including players in the national team. One good match or maybe one good spell is enough for a bowler to earn the cap. It’s not just the selectors fault though as there are times when teams are selected by other powers. Otherwise how can we have spent cartridges like Shoaib Malik still making the cut for the national team?

With such a background, it’s hardly surprising that Pakistan have seldom realized their potential to become the top side in the world. We normally hover at number five or six in Tests and One-day Internationals and occasionally take the lead in Twenty20 Internationals. Our winning streaks, especially in the longer formats, are few and far between.

With World Cup 2015 less than a year away, things will have to change. Our cricket chiefs will have to put more emphasis in the shape of time and resources on helping our players improve their technique as well as fitness. Even our younger players like Umar Akmal need to get in better shape. He hit a match-winning 94 against Australia last Sunday but failed to complete his 100 because he was exhausted after facing just 53 balls. He miscued the 54th to lose his wicket.

Pakistan cricket’s think-tank will need to go back to the drawing board after the World Twenty20 championship because they have to device ways and means to make the national team more reliable. Pakistan certainly have the guts to produce thrilling wins every now and then but they need to add reliability within their ranks to be able to join the list of title contenders at World Cup 2015 in Australia and New Zealand.