Is a full-scale military operation beckoning? Are the surgical strikes in North Waziristan the first roll of a loaded dice? Are we nearing the tipping point now that the Taliban has rejected the call for ceasefire?

These and plenty of related questions are beginning to unnerve the citizens, especially those who are directly affected in the tribal areas.

With the frivolous offer by Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan to play ball dead batted by the Taliban, and some bullet points of a long awaited National Security Policy unveiled in the National Assembly, it is time to make sense of where Pakistan is headed in what looks like a long summer of discontent.

Since the fighter jets pounded militant hideouts in Mir Ali area of North Waziristan on February 20 -- the first real exhibition of spine even though it was most likely in retaliation for the beheading of 23 FC personnel by the Taliban. Speculation is rife that it may eventually lead to a full scale operation.

The ‘surgical strikes’ in Mir Ali, Hangu district near the Orakzai region, Tirah valley area of the restive Khyber Agency, and the bordering area of South Waziristan have claimed the lives of dozens of suspected militants, according to security officials. Reliable figures, given that the badlands are off limits to the media, are hard to come by. 

The air raids are reckoned to have destroyed militant hideouts, razed an improvised explosives device (IED)-making factory as well as reportedly, flattened some houses in ‘collateral damage’. No data is available on civilian casualties, if any.

Ayesha Siddiqa, an independent social scientist and author of Military Inc., concurs: "All that is being reported is something not known to people. We are told about so many Taliban dead but there is no source to confirm these claims," Siddiqa says.

"I don’t think that anything great is going to come out of these attacks since there are many militants that are being allowed to operate with impunity," she argues.

Logical reaction

But Lt. General (retired) Talat Masood, former chairman of Pakistan Ordnance Factories Board, reasons the strikes seem logical after the Taliban exploited the government’s repeated stress for a peace dialogue by trying to legitimise and gain political and psychological space.

"The surgical strikes are meant to hit at the militant leadership, command centres, weapons and explosive factories in retaliation against their acts of violence and seize the initiative."

But what of the PML-N government’s intent? From being a passive spectator for long to finally, outlining a security policy, is it now moving on the same page with the military?

About the idea of talks, Brig. (R) Shaukat Qadir, a security analyst known more recently for his book ‘Operation Geronimo: The Betrayal and Assassination of Osama bin Laden and its Aftermath’, sums up the irony: "We are buying peace from the Taliban, who bought violence through weapons."

He however, suggests the government has no choice but to respond now. "It seems inevitable for the government to move decisively to bring a logical end to the ongoing violence in the tribal areas and the surgical strikes will enable it to have an edge over the militants," Qadir says.

However, what is intriguing is that why the militant hideouts were not liquidated earlier if the military was aware of them. Surely, it cannot be a standard operating procedure for securing peace with an enemy known never to have respected any peace deal in the past.

The Taliban have violated every single agreement, using the same only to buy time to regroup and launch fresh attacks. This, then, raises a pertinent question about the policy of appeasement in terms of allowing space for ‘good’ Taliban and only reluctantly, going after ‘bad’ Taliban.

Same old policy

Ayesha Siddiqa isn’t impressed. "I don’t think that the military means to change its policy vis-a-vis the militants entirely. They want to punish the miscreants but keep talking with the good ones," she says.

Even though Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appears to give the impression his patience is running thin with the intransigence of Taliban, a certain fear of reprisal in his home turf in the Punjab is evident in a policy of studied ambiguity with regard to the talks.

However, with talks having broken down and the military establishment breathing down his neck, his hand may be forced eventually. This obviously necessitates a debate on the fallout of the military action, and how, if, the state is prepared to confront the backlash, especially in the urban centres.

Ominous signs

Lt. General (R) Talat Masood warns about the expected hostility.

"Surely, the Pakistani Taliban and its affiliates will retaliate in cities. Karachi and Peshawar remain most vulnerable. The government will have to take several preventive measures, including close coordination between intelligence agencies and (creating) awareness among the masses to remain watchful of any unusual activity," he says.

Last Monday alone, there were four attacks in Peshawar, including a suicide bombing on the Iranian Consulate and another one near an imambargah. Of the two other bomb explosions, one was aimed at a religious centre. Collectively, 27 people were killed and 128 injured.

Ironically, this happened on the day Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan, the most vocal supporter of a peace dialogue with the Taliban, said for the first time that "surgical strikes" must be conducted against people "who kill soldiers and citizens".

Having said that, a full scale military operation may not be as close as it seems going by Lt. General (R) Talat Masood’s argument.

"It is one of the options the army may eventually exercise. But, as of now, targeted strikes and limited operations to push the TTP on the backfoot seem to be the strategy. A full scale operation, if at all, will be undertaken (only) after the population has been moved to safer places.

Masood also pointed out that close coordination would be needed between Afghan and Pakistani forces if and when the operation is launched.

"All exit points will have to be sealed and after the area is cleared of militants, it will have to be controlled so that the militants do not return," he emphasised.

Displacement woes

One of the most critical questions surrounding a full scale operation is the inevitable displacement of North Waziristan residents currently living under siege.

In fact, a mass exodus is already taking place with reports trickling in of fear sweeping through the tribal belt despite denials by Siraj Ahmed Khan, the political agent of NWA, that a military operation is imminent.

The aftermath of the displacement, and rehabilitation of forced migrants whence it happens would likely be much more gigantic and complicated than, say, was the case in Swat in 2009.

But Dr Zafar Qadir, the former Chairman of National Disaster Management Authority, is confident that Pakistan can cope with it.

"The country has become resilient to such shocks for over three decades now. The IDPs (internally displaced persons) would have to move to the authorised camps for which government agencies seem to have made necessary arrangements. The economic burden, of course, would have to be borne by the Pakistani tax-payers."

The American connection

It will be interesting to see how an operation plays out in the context of the expected drawdown of US troops from Afghanistan this year. That the Obama Administration is very keen to see a safe pullout is also evident in how the CIA-driven drone programme is currently in hibernation.

The apparent facilitation of Islamabad’s wish to pursue Taliban talks however, cannot be faulted for its ‘gifted’ timing. It is no accident that last week CIA chief John Brennan met Army Chief General Raheel Sharif, who had earlier also seen Centcom Chief General Lloyd Austin.

Lt. General (R) Talat Masood feels it all makes sense.

"The US at this point needs Pakistan’s support. Use of drones may have a certain tactical advantage but is creating major political problems and has been a source of friction between the two countries. The current pause may last a while and it seems that there is better understanding and cooperation between Pakistan and US intelligence than before," he says.

Brig. (R) Shaukat Qadir agrees, saying "the Americans may help Pakistan with intelligence-sharing to go after the militants."

News reports in recent days suggest one of the issues discussed between General Raheel and Brennan was the possibility of sealing the Afghan border in the event of launching a military operation in Pakistan.

Ayesha Siddiqa believes the high profile but low key engagements are more likely an attempt to read the mind of the new military leadership.

"I think the Americans are trying to explore Raheel Shareef and extend a hand of cooperation to the new army chief. The expectation is that probably with the new chief, there may be pressure on the Taliban and a better deal even if (Afghan President) Karzai doesn’t sign the Bilateral Security Arrangement in time."