here is a need to further strengthen Bangladesh-Pakistan relations in the backdrop of climate change and its impact on both countries. The two countries are inseparably connected through monsoon systems from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea. They both face climate-triggered disasters, including flash floods, mud slides, heat waves, droughts, tropical storms and cyclones.

Bangladesh and Pakistan share profound historical connections that date back to their pre-independence existence. Before that, both territories were integral components of British India, connected through shared governance systems, cultural practices and economic interdependencies. The Bengal region (now Bangladesh) and areas of present-day Pakistan were sites of ancient civilisations with trading links through the historic Grand Trunk Road and maritime routes connecting them.

Ecologically, both nations are part of South Asia’s vast monsoon system that stretches from the Bay of Bengal to the Arabian Sea. This shared meteorological phenomenon has historically shaped agricultural practices, settlement patterns and cultural rituals in both regions. The monsoon winds that bring life-giving rain to Bangladesh continue westward to influence Pakistan’s weather systems, creating ecological interdependencies that transcend modern political boundaries. This monsoon system is intricately connected to the greater Himalayan ecosystem, with rivers originating in these mountains flowing through both countries—the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh and the Indus River system in Pakistan. These river systems have historically defined settlement patterns, agricultural practices and cultural identities in both nations.

Bangladesh and Pakistan face strikingly similar climate change challenges despite their geographical differences. Both countries experience devastating floods with increasing frequency and intensity. In Pakistan, the 2022 floods submerged a third of the country, affecting over 33 million people and causing damage estimated at $30 billion. Bangladesh experiences floods every year, however, their intensity has increased in recent years. The 2020 monsoon floods affected over 5.4 million people and submerged about 40 percent of the country.

Sea level rise presents an existential threat to Bangladesh and increasingly affects Pakistan’s coastal areas. Approximately 17 percent of Bangladesh’s land area could be submerged by 2050 if global sea levels rise by one meter, potentially displacing 20 million people. Pakistan’s 990-kilometer coastline along the Arabian Sea faces similar challenges, with the city of Karachi—home to over 16 million people—particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding and erosion. Saltwater intrusion affects agricultural land in both countries, with Bangladesh losing approximately 200,000 hectares of arable land to salinity in recent decades. Pakistan’s Indus Delta has seen over 1.2 million acres affected by seawater intrusion. (Can we have the same units for easier comparison?)

Tropical cyclones and severe storms represent another shared threat. Bangladesh has historically suffered from devastating cyclones from the Bay of Bengal. Cyclone Amphan in 2020 caused $13 billion damage.

Heat waves have become increasingly deadly in both countries. Pakistan recorded one of the world’s highest temperatures at 53.7°C in Jacobabad in 2021. Bangladesh experienced record temperatures of 42.7°C in Rajshahi in 2019. The 2022 pre-monsoon heat wave affected both countries simultaneously, killing hundreds and reducing agricultural yields. Urban heat island effect in densely populated cities like Dhaka and Karachi amplifies these impacts. Karachi’s 2015 heat wave alone claimed over 1,200 lives.

Slow-onset climate changes affect both nations through altered precipitation patterns. Bangladesh has seen a 5.5 percent decrease in pre-monsoon rainfall since 1960, while Pakistan has experienced a 10-15 percent reduction in winter precipitation in some regions. Glacial melt affects Pakistan more directly through its dependence on the Indus River system, where accelerated melting threatens long-term water security. Meanwhile, Bangladesh faces the downstream impacts of glacial melt in the Himalayan region, contributing to unpredictable river flows in the Ganges-Brahmaputra system.

Climate change significantly impedes economic development in both Bangladesh and Pakistan, affecting multiple sectors and exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Agriculture, a cornerstone of both economies, faces severe disruptions. In Bangladesh, agriculture accounts for approximately 13 percent of GDP and employs about 39 percent of the labour force. Climate impacts could reduce rice production by up to 17 percent and wheat production by up to 61 percent by 2050 according to some projections. Similarly, in Pakistan, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent to GDP and employs 42 percent of the workforce, climate change could reduce crop yields by 8-10 percent by 2040, with some regions experiencing up to 30 percent reductions in wheat and rice productivity.

Water security has become increasingly precarious in both nations. Pakistan is already classified as a water-stressed country with per capita water availability declining from 5,600 cubic metres at independence to less than 1,100 cubic meters today. The World Bank projects this will drop below 1,000 cubic meters by 2035, officially making Pakistan water-scarce. Bangladesh, despite having abundant water resources, faces seasonal scarcity and qualitative degradation through increased salinity and pollution.

Energy infrastructure faces climate-related stresses in both nations. Pakistan’s hydropower generation, which provides about 30 percent of its electricity, fluctuates with increasingly erratic river flows. Bangladesh’s energy infrastructure, largely concentrated in low-lying areas, is vulnerable to flooding and cyclones, with the 2020 Cyclone Amphan damaging transmission lines that left millions without power.

Urbanisation patterns are being reshaped by climate impacts. In Bangladesh, approximately 400,000 people migrate to urban centres annually, with climate factors driving an estimated 30 percent of this movement. Dhaka’s slum population has grown to over 4 million, with many residents being climate migrants. Similarly, Pakistan’s cities are growing at 3 percent annually, with climate-induced rural-urban migration contributing significantly to urban expansion. Karachi alone receives an estimated 200,000 climate-affected migrants annually from rural Sindh and Balochistan.

Public health systems in both countries strain under climate-related disease burdens. Bangladesh has seen a 12 percent increase in diarrheal diseases during flood periods, while vector-borne diseases like dengue fever have expanded their range, with 2019 seeing over 100,000 dengue cases—the highest on record. Pakistan faces similar challenges, with malaria incidence increasing in previously less-affected highland areas and waterborne diseases spiking after flood events, as evidenced by over 2.7 million cases of waterborne illnesses following the 2022 floods.

Poverty reduction efforts face significant setbacks due to climate impacts. The World Bank estimates that climate change could push an additional 62 million South Asians into extreme poverty by 2030. In Bangladesh, poverty rates in coastal areas affected by salinity and cyclones are 17 percent higher than the national average. In Pakistan, districts highly exposed to floods have poverty rates approximately 23 percent higher than less-exposed regions.

Bangladesh and Pakistan have developed different approaches to climate policy, reflecting their unique governance systems and economic priorities. Bangladesh has emerged as a global leader in climate adaptation policy, establishing the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2009 and becoming one of the first developing countries to create a comprehensive climate change strategy. The country established its own Climate Change Trust Fund with an initial allocation of $100 million from the national budget, demonstrating political commitment to addressing climate challenges domestically. Bangladesh’s Delta Plan 2100 represents one of the most ambitious long-term climate adaptation frameworks globally, integrating water resource management, food security and climate resilience across sectors.

Pakistan’s climate policy framework developed somewhat later, with the National Climate Change Policy adopted in 2012 and updated in 2021. Unlike Bangladesh’s adaptation-centred approach, Pakistan’s policy gives more balanced attention to mitigation and adaptation. The country’s National Determined Contributions (NDCs) initially set ambitious targets for emissions reduction of 20 percent below projected 2030 levels, contingent upon international support. In terms of institutional frameworks, Bangladesh established a dedicated Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change with climate change explicitly in its mandate, while Pakistan has oscillated between having a dedicated ministry and incorporating climate functions within broader environmental portfolios.

Financing mechanisms differ significantly between the two countries. Bangladesh has been more successful in accessing international climate finance, securing over $800 million from the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and other sources. Pakistan has traditionally relied more on development finance with climate co-benefits rather than dedicated climate funds. This is changing with recent initiatives like the Ecosystem Restoration Fund. Bangladesh allocates approximately 7-8 percent of its annual budget to climate-related expenditures according to a 2018 climate public expenditure review; Pakistan’s climate-relevant expenditure is estimated at 5-6 percent of its federal budget.

Bangladesh and Pakistan share significant trans-boundary climate issues with their common neighbour, India, creating complex trilateral environmental interdependencies. Water resource management represents the most critical shared challenge. Pakistan’s relationship with India is governed by the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which allocates the waters of the Indus basin between the two countries. Climate change is putting this agreement under stress as glacial melt patterns change and water demand increases, creating tensions over infrastructure development on shared rivers. Similarly, Bangladesh shares 54 rivers with India, including the crucial Ganges and Brahmaputra. The Ganges Water Treaty governs some aspects of this relationship.

Air pollution represents another significant trans-boundary issue. The Indo-Gangetic Plain, stretching from Pakistan through northern India to Bangladesh, experiences some of the world’s worst air quality. Seasonal crop residue burning in India affects air quality in both neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, industrial emissions and vehicle exhaust create a persistent regional pollution problem. This air pollution has significant health impacts, with an estimated 122,400 premature deaths in Bangladesh and 128,000 in Pakistan annually attributed to poor air quality.

Climate-induced migration creates complex humanitarian and security challenges across national boundaries. Bangladesh experiences significant outmigration to India from climate-vulnerable coastal areas, with an estimated 1.5 million people having already moved across this border partially due to environmental factors. While Pakistan-India migration is more restricted, climate pressures in agricultural regions along the border affect seasonal labour movements and create potential for increased irregular migration as climate impacts intensify.

Disaster management coordination remains underdeveloped despite the interconnected nature of climate hazards. Flooding in Nepal and India affects downstream Bangladesh, while water management decisions in India impact flood patterns in both Bangladesh and Pakistan. Early warning systems for floods, cyclones and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) require trans-boundary coordination that currently falls short of what’s needed. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation established a Disaster Management Centre, but political tensions have limited its effectiveness in facilitating truly integrated regional approaches.

Bangladesh and Pakistan can strengthen their climate cooperation through several promising avenues that build on their historical connections while addressing contemporary challenges. Knowledge exchange represents an immediate opportunity with low political barriers. Bangladesh’s globally recognised expertise in community-based adaptation and disaster preparedness could benefit Pakistan’s vulnerable communities. Conversely, Pakistan’s experience with glacial melt monitoring in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram region offers valuable insights for Bangladesh’s management of the downstream impacts of Himalayan glacial retreat. Establishing a formal Bangladesh-Pakistan Climate Knowledge Exchange Programme can facilitate learning across institutions and communities facing similar challenges.

Joint research initiatives could strengthen the scientific basis for climate action in both countries. Collaborative research on climate-resilient agriculture suited to conditions in both nations would enhance food security. Joint monitoring of the changing monsoon patterns affecting both countries can improve seasonal forecasting crucial for agricultural planning and disaster preparedness. Research partnerships between institutions like the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology and Pakistan’s Global Change Impact Studies Centre could be formalised to address shared research priorities.

Diplomatic coordination can strengthen both countries’ positions in international climate negotiations. As two of the most climate-vulnerable nations globally, Bangladesh and Pakistan could amplify their influence by coordinating positions within the Climate Vulnerable Forum, the G77+China bloc and at annual UNFCCC Conferences of Parties.

Economic cooperation with climate co-benefits offers promising avenues for engagement. Establishing preferential trade arrangements for climate-adaptive technologies and agricultural products can benefit both economies while enhancing resilience. Joint investment in climate-resilient port infrastructure can strengthen economic connectivity while addressing shared vulnerabilities to sea-level rise and cyclones. Exploring bilateral carbon market mechanisms could generate financing for mitigation projects while strengthening economic ties.

Regional integration efforts could amplify bilateral cooperation. Reinvigorating climate cooperation through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation can benefit all member states. Bangladesh and Pakistan can jointly propose strengthening the SAARC Meteorological Research Centre to improve regional climate monitoring and forecasting. Collaborating on proposals for the Green Climate Fund’s regional project window can mobilise resources for trans-boundary climate initiatives.

By leveraging their shared historical connections, similar climate vulnerabilities and complementary strengths, Bangladesh and Pakistan can develop a productive climate partnership that enhances resilience while addressing common development goals. Such cooperation could serve as a model for climate diplomacy between countries that, despite complex historical relations, face common challenges requiring collaborative solutions. As climate impacts intensify across South Asia, such cooperation becomes not merely beneficial but increasingly essential for sustainable development and human security in both nations.

The writer is an Islamabad-based expert on climate change and water governance, He can be reached at atauqeersheikh@gmail.com