“Ravi toh Chenab puchda… ki haal ae Sutluj da”

There is a reason why Punjabi folklore, known for traditional wisdom and insights, understood the complex interplay of the region’s river system and how it worked in tandem. Sadly, as time went on, it seemed that despite the advent of technology and swathes of urban planners, much had been lost in the name of development. The city, once known as the City of Gardens, continues on its transformation to a concrete jungle.

According to the World Bank’s Climate and Development Report, Lahore has the largest settlement area in Pakistan exposed to fluvial flooding (flooding caused by rivers overflowing their banks) at 163 square kilometers. Lahore also has the largest settlement area of 129 square kilometers, prone to pluvial flooding (flooding caused by prolonged precipitation). This exposure is not just natural misfortune; it is also the outcome of urban planning choices that have paved our floodplains, neglected storm-water infrastructure and permitted controversial mega projects right where the river is supposed to breathe.

To understand why Lahore is particularly vulnerable, it helps to zoom out to the Punjab, Pakistan’s demographic and economic heartland. When the 2022 floods devastated the country, Punjab suffered damage worth Rs 111 billion ($515 million). Its recovery needs amounted to Rs 160 billion ($746 million). Unlike Sindh, where riverine flooding was widespread, the Punjab’s losses came disproportionately from its cities — dense, asset-rich areas where each inundated street or damaged pumping station translates into outsized economic impact.

The post-disaster needs assessment (PDNA) carried out by the World Bank and its partners made it clear that Punjab’s resilience could not be measured solely by river embankments. It must account for the drainage, wastewater and land-use systems that underpin its sprawling urban centres. None of those looms larger than Lahore.

Lahore grew along the Ravi River, a tributary of the Indus, whose floodplain is still active in extreme monsoon years. The Asian Development Bank’s River Ravi Eco-Revitalisation Master Plan noted that the river corridor has been progressively constricted, its wetlands drained and its tributary drains (nullahs) reduced to garbage-choked channels. Each modification erodes the river’s natural flood-buffering capacity.

Lahore has suffered monumental violations of good urban planning rules. However, its plight is not on account of poor planning alone; it is also the product of a changing climate. The World Meteorological Organisation’s State of the Climate in Asia 2024 confirmed above-normal monsoon rainfall across South Asia and highlighted that Asia was warming at twice the global average. Its 2023 report also recorded accelerating extremes — heat-waves and flood-producing storms — making the monsoon less predictable and more violent.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s records from 2024 underline the trend. Lahore’s rainfall last year was not just high; it was record-shattering. Early this month, India released a substantial volume of monsoon water from dams in its Kashmir region — particularly from the Thein Dam — prompting flood alerts for the Ravi, Chenab and Sutlej rivers downstream. A diplomatic warning was issued. However, this trans-boundary discharge coincided with already intense local rains, elevating river levels from “medium to high to very high to exceptionally high” thresholds, including near Lahore.

The Provincial Disaster Management Authority reported that over 150,000 people had been evacuated. More than 20,000 were evacuated from Lahore’s outskirts — as authorities raced to manage the risk of dam and embankment failure.

The upstream water release, combined with monsoon-fed rain, created a confluence of flooding that will test not only Lahore’s infrastructure, but also that of the entire province. As rivers reach critical levels, authorities are forced to resort to controlled breaches of embankments, diverting water into low-lying areas to protect key infrastructure, which nonetheless submerges rural plains, including farmlands and villages, forcing displacement.

Floods in Lahore are not only about lost hours in traffic or waterlogged basements. They affect health, education and livelihoods. When storm-water mixes with sewage, the contamination spreads cholera and gastroenteritis — a frequent occurrence in Lahore’s low-income neighbourhoods after heavy rain. Schools double as relief shelters, commerce halts and informal settlements along nullahs bear the brunt of both inundation and eviction pressures.

The 2022 PDNA estimated that Punjab’s recovery needs were nearly $750 million. The figure underestimated social costs: disrupted schooling, mental health impacts of displacement and the erosion of trust in state institutions.

Lahore’s pathway to resilience lies in integrated measures that combine infrastructure upgrades with sustainable land use. Expanding water detention capacity through revitalised green spaces likes parks, school grounds and underground tanks would give the city breathing space during cloudbursts. Restoring floodplains along the Ravi and establishing reserve forests through the proven Miyawaki method of plantation can provide natural buffers in the event of floods. At the same time, intercepting solid waste at nullah inlets and supporting this with reliable collection systems and engineered landfills, like a model piloted in Bahawalpur, would keep drains open when they are most needed.

Finally, embedding risk-informed land-use planning to halt new settlements in flood-prone zones would ensure that future growth does not lock the city into even greater vulnerability.

Why does Lahore keep drowning even as projects and funds proliferate? The answer lies partially in governance fragmentation. The WASA manages drainage, the LWMC manages waste, the LDA oversees urban planning and the PDMA handles disaster response. Without integration, each agency tackles a part of the problem while the city floods through the gaps. A viable solution might be would be for the PDMA to take the lead in creating a single command-and-control platform where the WASA (drainage), the LWMC (solid waste), the LDA (urban planning) and PDMA (disaster response) are integrated into one operational framework during the monsoon season.

The PDMA can mandate joint contingency planning, real-time data sharing and synchronised field operations, so that clogged drains, solid waste blockages and floodplain encroachments are tackled as one chain of risk rather than in isolation. Over time, this could evolve into a single resilience strategy for Lahore and, indeed, the rest of the Punjab, and preserve the lives and livelihoods of its people.

Ahmed Ahsan is a development sector professional with nearly a decade of experience in communications and reporting. He has supported the implementation of The World Bank’s Disaster and Climate Resilience Improvement Project (DCRIP) and ADB’s Flood Emergency Reconstruction and Resilience Project in Pakistan