srael’s unprovoked attack against Iran, launched on June 13, to degrade its nuclear facilities and take out its senior military commanders, apparently caught the Iranian authorities off guard. Although the US denied direct involvement in the attack, it apparently took place with President Trump’s prior knowledge and, as became later evident though his public statements, with his blessings. This was not entirely surprising considering his earlier record of withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which had been agreed upon after painstaking negotiations and signed under the Obama administration. The US’ unilateral withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 under Trump’s first administration without any violation of its provisions by Iran reflected his hardline view that it did not go far enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

The commencement of President Trump’s second term earlier this year provided an opportunity to Iran and the US to renegotiate the nuclear deal. Several sessions of talks took place in which the two sides were represented by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Trump’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. The sixth session of talks was due to take place in Muscat on June 15 but was cancelled after Israel launched air strikes against targets in Iran two days earlier, apparently catching the Iranian authorities off guard.

Israel, which has been able to achieve domination over the Iranian air space because of the superiority of its air force, has inflicted extensive damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities and other military and civilian targets. According to IAEA’s director general, the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz has been extensively damaged. However, the uranium enrichment facility at Fordow, which is buried deep in a mountain near Qom, has so far escaped significant damage. Besides the loss of many senior Iranian military commanders, scientists and extensive damage to its military infrastructure, Iran has also suffered heavy civilian casualties. In response, Iran has launched several missile attacks against Israel causing some loss of civilian lives and damage to apartment buildings and other civilian infrastructure.

According to latest reports, Iran has expressed its readiness to resume talks with the US on its nuclear programme if Israel stops its attacks against Iranian targets. President Trump cut short his trip to Canada while attending the G7 meeting and returned to Washington on June 17 to consider the issue further. There is an apparent consensus on part of the US-led West that Iran cannot be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Being a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran is under legal obligation to neither develop nor acquire nuclear weapons. Iran has often stressed in formal official statements that it has no intention to develop nuclear weapons. So, there is no problem on this account.

The sticking point is Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities which provide it the capability to develop nuclear weapons, if uranium enrichment exceeds 90 percent. Under the nuclear deal of 2015, Iran was permitted to carry out low level uranium enrichment—up to 3.67 percent purity. Following the 2018 US withdrawal from the deal, and the reimposition of US sanctions on Iran, the latter gradually raised the level of uranium enrichment to 60 percent on the apparent plea that it was no longer bound by the restrictions imposed by the JCPOA.

In the latest talks with Iran, the Trump administration went further than the provisions of the JCPOA and demanded that Iran agree to totally give up its uranium enrichment programme. This was apparently not acceptable to Iran which insisted that under the NPT, it had the right to carry out enrichment of uranium for peaceful purposes. It is not clear what Iran’s final position would have been had the planned talks at Muscat taken place on June 15. In case of Iran’s insistence on its legal rights under the NPT, the talks at Muscat could have been prolonged to find a compromise acceptable to both sides.

There is a growing view that President Trump gave a green light to Israel’s planned attacks on Iran to weaken Iran’s bargaining position in its talks with the US. The Trump administration’s full political and military support to Israel during its attacks on Iran lends credence to this point. President Trump in his statement given to the media immediately after his return to Washington from Canada regretted that Iran had to go through so much destruction and loss of life because it had refused to sign the agreement that the US had presented to it earlier. He ruled out further negotiations and demanded “unconditional surrender” on the part of Iran, meaning complete acceptance of the demands earlier made by the US during negotiations with Iran. The US has also deployed additional military assets in the region with hints of direct attacks on Iran to increase pressure on Iran.

Beyond an agreement on the nuclear issue, the US may also be entertaining a secret hope that the weakened position of the present Iranian regime after the Israeli attacks would lead to a change of regime in Iran to restore the kind of friendly relations between the two countries that had existed during the Shah’s time. With his direct appeals to the Iranian people, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has left no doubt about his desire for a regime change in Iran.

The tough US position on the Iranian nuclear programme and generally, on relations with Iran needs to be seen against the background of broad American strategic objectives in the Middle East. The first and foremost objective is to maintain the US hegemony in the region and its stranglehold on its oil and gas resources, which constitute the economic lifeline for the West. Equally important for the US is the security of Israel as the American military outpost in the heart of the Middle East. The US would also like to keep open the east-west trade routes passing through the Middle East. Finally, it is an important US policy goal to counter terrorist and extremist organisations in the region.

The US views the Islamic Republic of Iran as a direct threat to its hegemony and strategic goals in the region. As long as the nature and policies of the government in Iran remain unchanged, the tensions between the two countries will persist. President Trump has taken a particularly tough position on the issue of Iranian nuclear programme leading to the present precarious situation. This may result in an expansion of the Israel-Iran conflict involving the US and other countries in the region, if Iran refuses to back down in the face of threatening statements made by Trump. Further, the unprovoked and illegal Israeli attack on Iran with US support will deliver a fatal blow to the so-called rules-based order established by the US-led West, weakening its political and moral standing across the globe.

The writer has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran from 1997-2003