ar brings destruction and disruptions with unintended and unimagined consequences. In the 20th Century, two World Wars among European nations for the establishment of their supremacy effectively eroded European supremacy and its global hegemonic position. The rise of the US and the USSR as new global leaders was closely linked with the wars in European theatres. In post-war years, the process of decolonisation and the rise of nationalism radically transformed the political map of the globe. The war unleashed new forces and new currents and brought radical political, ideological and technological shifts.

The 21st Century has been referred to as the Asian Century. The Asian economies are restoring their global share as leading economic powers. Rapid industrialisation and technological transformations have opened new avenues of economic development for Asia. China has emerged as the second-largest economy of the world and India as the fifth-largest, surpassing their European rivals. Within a span of eight decades, both these countries have effectively restored their historic status as leading global economic powers. During the last two and a half decades of the 21st Century, both their economies have outperformed their global competitors. The challenge of terrorism has not allowed Pakistan to fully exploit its geo-economic and geo-strategic potential. Military conflict has a great ability to derail the process of the rise of Asian powers; it has the potential to frustrate the dreams of economic prosperity and development.

The month-long military standoff between Pakistan and India is diffusing now. The recent contacts between the DGMOs have resulted in an extension of the ceasefire. A decision has been reached to de-escalate and return armed forces from battlefronts to their peace-time positions by May 30.

The Pahalgam attack triggered the most recent military conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations. India adopted an aggressive posture and launched a military offensive on several fronts, violating Pakistan’s sovereignty with strikes at various locations. Pakistan responded effectively, with the Pakistan Air Force securing a massive strategic victory by striking down advanced French-made Rafale fighter jets. Pakistan had initially shown restraint and responded only in defence. It struck back after India continued with missile and aerial strikes across Pakistan. India’s Operation Sindoor provoked Pakistan’s Operation Bunyan-um Marsoos. The Air Force penetrated deep into India and hit several installations on May 10.

The US responded on the diplomatic front. President Trump then announced the ceasefire and asked the leaders of both countries to engage in de-escalation. Some Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Eminrates and Iran also offered mediation and remained extensively engaged with the leadership in both countries. The international community called for a peaceful resolution of all outstanding issues, including Kashmir. President Trump, too, emphasised the resolution of the Kashmir issue for sustainable peace in the region.

The military conflict has opened a new window for peace between the South Asian nations. India has historically resisted third-party mediation and preferred bilateral engagements. Pakistan has always asked for third-party arbitration and the role of international organisations, especially the UN, in resolving the Kashmir issue. Initially, India reluctantly acknowledged the role of the Trump administration in diffusing the situation. After the media and public backlash, the Modi regime cautiously maintained its diplomatic position. In recent media interactions, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri has denied the US role in the ceasefire.

The two countries are to engage in bilateral negotiations at a neutral venue on all outstanding issues, especially Kashmir, the unilateral abeyance of the Indus Waters Treaty and terrorism. Although the two countries have remained engaged at the DGMO level for military de-escalation, diplomatic channels have remained suspended. The two sides have failed so far to decide the venue and schedule of talks. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have offered their good offices. However, owing to the media hype and the emotionally charged environment on both sides, the space for diplomacy has shrunk. Back-channel diplomacy may be an option.

In recent military conflicts, the two countries have tested each other’s military muscle. India’s hegemonic designs were effectively checked by the Pakistani military. India has claimed technological and military advantage and its status as an emerging global economic power is undisputed. The effectiveness of some of its Western weapon system has however been called into question vis-à-vis the Chinese technology available to Pakistan. India appears to have lost some of its credibility as a threat to China.

The Western powers and military strategist are revisiting their perceptions of the reliability and effectiveness of the Chinese weapon systems. China’s weapon industry has received a great boost in the international market. There is, however, a potential danger in this; it can result in a new arms race not only between India and Pakistan but also among other regional and global powers. The recent conflict can unleash an arms race that will require extraordinary financial allocations. Rising defence expenditure can negatively impact the economies of both countries.

South Asia is home to a fourth of the global population. India, with its 1.4 billion population, and Pakistan, with its 241 million population, are among the largest countries of the world. India is also the fifth largest economy with a size of $3.8 trillion, while Pakistan is ranked 44th with a size of $375 billion. India’s economy is thus nearly 10 times larger than Pakistan’s. India also has the advantage of sustained economic growth for the last two decades. Pakistan had once enjoyed an advantage over India on some economic indicators. However, that has been lost in the 21st Century. Indian exports have reached $779 billion, while Pakistan stands at $35 billion in exports.

Despite its economic progress, India is still home to 234 million poor people, the world’s largest poor population. In recent years, India has successfully pulled 270 million of its people out of poverty. However, its poor still account for 16 percent of its total population. In Pakistan, the challenge is more alarming. Pakistan’s 93 million population of the poor, constitutes 38 percent of its total population. Pakistan is also facing another challenge with its 25 million children (of 5-16 years of age) out of school, that is 36 percent of the school-going age children. Both countries continue to perform poorly on the global Human Development Index.

The two countries can’t afford costly wars. Their meagre resources should be invested in uplifting the millions of their poor citizens. The arms race and competition in the military sphere have great potential to exhaust these resources. Sustained military standoff at the borders requires massive resource mobilisation at the cost of people’s development and welfare. The two countries already have the capacity of mutually assured destruction. Despite its economic progress, India has failed to establish military supremacy over Pakistan. The war hysteria created by hate mongers must be abandoned and the stakeholders in peace must come forward and seize the opportunity for coexistence and prosperity.

The writer is an assistant professor in the Department of Pakistan Studies at the Allama Iqbal Open University, Islamabad. He has a PhD from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. His area of expertise is electoral politics of Pakistan. He can be reached at sajidkhanhistorian@gmail.com and on X: @sajidkhanqau