he night of May 6 marked a perilous turn in South Asia’s most militarised rivalry. In a coordinated move, India launched surgical strikes across multiple locations in Pakistan – a clear violation of the latter’s territorial integrity. The strikes, carried out with precision-guided missiles, killed several civilians. India claimed that it had acted in retaliation for the Pahalgam attack in which 26 Indian civilians lost their lives some weeks ago. The situation escalated rapidly. Pakistan’s Air Force claims to have shot down at least three Indian fighter jets, although some media outlets in Pakistan have reported the number to be as high as seven. Scores of causalities have been reported from areas along the Line of Control.

The conflict has already taken on dangerous proportions. India has unilaterally suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty one of the last remaining mechanisms of bilateral cooperation. In retaliation, Pakistan has closed its airspace for Indian airlines. With each side hardening its posture, the chances of further escalation are real and immediate. Should this dangerous exchange not be diplomatically contained, Pakistan may well feel compelled to respond in kind potentially conducting strikes on Indian territory. The situation has reached a boiling point, driven not just by the Pahalgam incident but also by decades of misgivings, failed dialogue and hardened nationalism on both sides.

The implications of this military standoff go well beyond border strikes. Civilians living along the LoC are the most immediate victims killed, displaced and forced to live in constant fear of shelling and air raids. The mood among the common people in Pakistan, particularly in the Punjab, has grown increasingly tense and apprehensive in the wake of the recent attacks. Conversations in markets, homes and public spaces reflect a deep concern over escalation. Many fear that renewed conflict could lead to loss of lives, economic hardship and regional instability. With the Punjab being close to the border and historically a frontline in past wars, the possibility of further strikes has left the public anxious.

The current India-Pakistan conflict has also cast a long shadow over regional trade and integration. Geo-economic initiative, already fragile, stand to suffer further. SAARC, once envisioned as a vehicle for regional cooperation, has become all but irrelevant. This standoff further erodes the SAARC’s credibility as a regional bloc. The persistent hostility between its two largest members paralyses any collective regional agenda. Institutions that could help facilitate dialogue, reduce tensions and encourage cooperation are rendered ineffective. The future of regionalism in South Asia looks increasingly bleak, with mistrust replacing diplomacy and military posturing standing in for economic integration. Smaller states such as Nepal, Bhutan, the Maldives and Sri Lanka are caught in the crossfire between South Asia’s two giants. Many fear India’s growing assertiveness, interpreting its regional posturing as an attempt to achieve hegemony under the guise of self defence. Such fears only widen the diplomatic gulf and increase strategic instability in the region.

Moreover, multinational corporations operating in India especially from the United States, the UAE and other Western and Gulf nations face serious consequences. Escalating conflict damages investor confidence and may prompt capital flight. India’s aspirations to become a global manufacturing and technology hub could be undercut by the growing perception of it being a high-risk destination. China, too, has expressed concern. With the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor running through sensitive parts of northern Pakistan, any escalation in the Northern Areas would directly endanger Chinese interests. This could complicate China’s broader regional calculus, including its relations with India and its connectivity projects under the Belt and Road Initiative.

Importantly, these events are not merely a bilateral crisis they are a global security challenge. Both India and Pakistan maintain nuclear arsenals and doctrines that do not rule out first use in extreme conditions. A single miscalculation and/ or a misinterpreted military movement could lead to an uncontrollable spiral possibly even a nuclear confrontation. The world simply cannot afford that. This is not hyperbole. Together, India and Pakistan are home to nearly 1.7 billion people approximately 20 percent of the world’s population. A conventional war, let alone a nuclear one, will be catastrophic in human, environmental and geopolitical terms. A limited nuclear exchange, according to some scientific models, could lower global temperatures, destroy agriculture and trigger a global famine. The consequences will extend far beyond South Asia and affect the entire planet.

A war between India and Pakistan will also disrupt global supply chains. Both countries are vital to global pharmaceutical, textile and agricultural industries. Maritime routes will be disrupted, overland trade routes blocked and investment flows frozen. Not only this, global markets will experience shocks that could spill over into energy prices, commodity markets and financial indices. The economic toll will be widespread and long lasting.

Recognising the danger, the United Nations has called for restraint and dialogue. The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation has also condemned civilian casualties and called on India to abide by international norms. The European Union, BRICS+ and ASEAN have issued statements urging peace and caution. Even the Trump-led US, a close partner of India, has privately and publicly urged restraint, knowing quite well that the regional balance could shift dangerously if conflict spirals out of control. China, with economic stakes and strategic concerns on both sides, is equally concerned by the lingering instability in the sub-continent.

A full-scale India-Pakistan war can also undermine global non-proliferation efforts and embolden other regional flashpoints. The strategic and normative credibility of arms control will be weakened. From Taiwan to Ukraine, other rivalries may follow suit if great powers and global institutions fail to prevent catastrophe in South Asia.

What is urgently needed is not only backchannel diplomacy, but also the activation of multilateral platforms and credible third-party mediators to help defuse tensions and restore communication. The US and China must urgently engage both Indian and Pakistani leaderships in terms of urging them to show restraint and renew dialogue to prevent further escalation. Regionally, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE each with economic and strategic stakes in South Asia should also press for normalisation, recognising that continued instability endangers the entire region’s peace and prosperity.

The longer this standoff persists, the greater the risk it poses, not just to India and Pakistan but also to regional stability and global security. Hence, in light of the grave escalation witnessed on the May 6-May 7 night, it is imperative that both India and Pakistan prioritise de-escalation, paying heed to third parties and work toward normalisation. Continued hostilities serve neither nation and will only deepen human suffering, economic disruption and diplomatic isolation. Peace between India and Pakistan is not just a bilateral necessity, it is a prerequisite for regional stability and global security.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and post-doc experience at University of California, Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor at Lahore School of Economics. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com