n April 16, a sudden and intense weather event—dubbed a “white disaster”—struck Islamabad, Rawalpindi and several northern regions of Pakistan. This extreme hailstorm, accompanied by torrential rainfall and strong winds, caused significant disruption across urban and agricultural zones.

In Islamabad, the federal capital, unusually large hailstones shattered vehicle windshields, damaged rooftops and uprooted trees, severely affecting traffic flow and public mobility. Widespread damage was also reported to solar energy infrastructure, residential buildings and public utilities.

The storm’s rapid onset and intensity triggered urban flash flooding in low-lying areas, highlighting the increasing frequency of extreme weather patterns associated with climate change. In rural zones, crops sustained heavy losses, posing serious economic challenges for local farmers and food supply chains.

The hailstorm is yet another stark reminder of the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events driven by climate change. However, a more enduring and systemic threat looms over the country—the critical scarcity of water.

Both the Tarbela and Mangla dams, Pakistan’s primary water reservoirs, have reached dead levels, leaving the nation with barely enough supply to meet basic drinking water needs. The implications for agriculture are deeply concerning. With reservoir levels critically low, Pakistan is facing a severe irrigation crisis heading into the Kharif cropping season.

Sindh is already experiencing a dire water shortage, with an overall deficit of 50 percent. Major irrigation barrages such as Guddu and Sukkur are reporting water shortfalls of 10.3 percent and 66.3 percent, respectively. This lack of water threatens a wide range of essential crops, from mango orchards and cotton fields to banana plantations and vegetable farms including okra, cauliflower and tomatoes. The cascading effects of this irrigation deficit will inevitably strain Pakistan’s agricultural output, disrupt food supply chains and contribute to rising inflation and economic instability.

The underlying cause is a significant decline in winter precipitation. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the country received nearly 70 percent less rainfall than average between December 2024 and February 2025. The deficit was also alarming regionally: Sindh received only 52 percent of its normal rainfall between September 2024 and January 2025, Balochistan 45 percent, and the Punjab 42 percent. This widespread drought has devastated rain-fed farming systems that depend heavily on seasonal rainfall for crop sustainability.

Adding to the crisis, Pakistan experienced one of its most snow-deficient winters in recent memory. Key winter tourism and water catchment areas such as Murree, Galiyat and the Swat Valley saw little to no snowfall. The Pakistan Meteorological Department confirmed an anomalous absence of snow in these traditionally snow-laden regions, citing unusually warm winter temperatures and significantly reduced precipitation.

While some high-altitude areas, like the Hunza Valley in the Upper Indus Basin, showed a minor increase in snow cover, it was not sufficient to counterbalance the overall national deficit. The reduction in snow accumulation directly impacts future water availability, as snowmelt from the northern mountains is a critical source of freshwater for both drinking and irrigation during the warmer months.

Pakistan is facing an intensifying water crisis that is not only undermining agricultural productivity but also fuelling internal discord and geopolitical tensions. Historically, water distribution has been a contentious issue. The latest flashpoint is the construction of six new canals under the Green Pakistan Initiative, a project aimed at converting arid lands—such as the Cholistan Desert—into cultivable farmland. This initiative has provoked strong opposition, particularly from Sindh, due to concerns over interprovincial water rights and the ecological threat it poses to an already fragile Indus Delta.

On the international front, geopolitical developments have further aggravated the situation. Following a recent militant attack in Indian Occupied Kashmir, India has announced its intention to unilaterally revoke the Indus Waters Treaty, a historic agreement signed in 1960 to manage water resources shared between the two nations. The potential abrogation of the treaty significantly threatens Pakistan’s long-term water security and is likely to escalate regional tensions.

Concurrently, the country is bracing for another environmental challenge: extreme heat. The National Disaster Management Authority has issued a high-alert advisory in anticipation of intense and prolonged heatwaves expected during the summer months. Southern regions such as Balochistan and Sindh are particularly vulnerable, with projections of dangerously high temperatures and extended dry spells.

Climate change is now visibly impacting Pakistan’s economic and social fabric. Prolonged drought conditions are likely to result in severe food shortages and trigger inflationary pressures. These developments, compounded by environmental degradation, are contributing to both internal and cross-border conflicts. Moreover, frequent and intense heatwaves are placing additional strain on an already overburdened healthcare system, while unpredictable and extreme rainfall events pose significant threats to infrastructure, agriculture and livestock. The cumulative effects of these climate-related events are also contributing to the displacement of vulnerable populations, adding a humanitarian dimension to the environmental crisis.

Pakistan’s escalating environmental crises call for a paradigm shift towards ecosystem-based adaptation, inclusive water governance and climate resilience rooted in ecological integrity. Policymakers must prioritise nature-based solutions to buffer against extreme weather events, such as expanding urban green cover, restoring degraded wetlands and preserving watershed ecosystems to naturally mitigate floods and hailstorm runoff. Strengthening the Pakistan Meteorological Department and the National Disaster Management Authority with real-time climate modeling and localised risk assessments will empower communities with early warnings and preparedness tools. Crucially, integrating climate education at grassroots levels can foster environmental stewardship and community-led adaptation practices that are sensitive to local ecologies and indigenous knowledge.

On the water governance front, Pakistan needs to prioritise the protection of the Indus Basin’s ecological balance alongside equitable human use. The construction of large-scale canals and water diversion projects must undergo rigorous environmental impact assessments, with transparent, participatory consultation from all affected provinces and civil society stakeholders. Reviving and conserving the Indus Delta, a globally significant ecosystem, should be elevated to a national priority, recognising its role in coastal resilience, biodiversity and climate regulation.

At the transboundary level, Pakistan must advocate for climate diplomacy that frames water as a shared ecological resource, not a geopolitical tool. Urgent investments in rainwater harvesting, aquifer recharge and regenerative agriculture alongside public campaigns for water literacy and climate justice can ensure that future development aligns with planetary boundaries while securing the rights of vulnerable communities to healthy environments and sustainable livelihoods.

The writer is an environmental expert based in the US. She is also a visiting senior research associate with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad