akistan’s 2018 National Water Policy represents the country’s first comprehensive water governance framework, arriving at a critical juncture as climate change increasingly threatens water security across the Indus Basin. This analysis examines Pakistan’s water-climate nexus, focusing on adaptation effectiveness, carbon footprints, provincial disparities and reform pathways. Despite climate-smart policy language, implementation lags critically behind escalating impacts as provincial approaches vary dramatically in both coherence and effectiveness. Transformative approaches linking water governance with climate adaptation require institutional restructuring to address Pakistan’s growing water-climate vulnerabilities.

Climate vulnerability and water security

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report identifies the Indus Basin as a climate change “hotspot” with a projected temperature increase of 1.5-2.3 degree Celsius by 2050 under moderate emissions scenarios. These warming trends directly threaten Pakistan’s water security through accelerated glacier melt, unpredictable precipitation patterns and intensifying hydrological extremes. The World Meteorological Organisation State of Climate Services Report documents a 73 percent increase in Pakistan’s water-related disaster frequency since 2000, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climate data shows precipitation variability increasing by 24 percent in the past decade.

Pakistan’s climate vulnerability manifests through escalating water crises. According to Pakistan Meteorological Department data, annual temperature increases across Pakistan have accelerated glacier melt particularly since 1996, increasing flood risks while paradoxically reducing long-term water availability. These climate-induced changes compound existing water governance challenges in a country already classified as “water stressed” by international metrics.

Climate change integration in water policy

Pakistan’s National Water Policy acknowledges climate change as a defining challenge for the water sector, establishing frameworks for improved forecasting systems, flood management infrastructure and drought mitigation. The policy aims to reduce water losses, which currently exceed 60 percent in many irrigation systems according to the Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources. It targets increased water storage capacity, revised water pricing mechanisms and water-efficient technologies in agriculture and industry to enhance climate resilience.

Climate policy alignment appears strong on paper. The water policy references Pakistan’s climate commitments and adaptation priorities, while Pakistan’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (2021) identifies water infrastructure as a key adaptation priority. The National Adaptation Plan (2023) process established water sector adaptation metrics with specific targets for resilient infrastructure, water conservation and disaster risk reduction. However, the climate considerations have remained peripheral in water infrastructure planning so that according to Planning Commission evaluations new water projects rarely incorporate comprehensive climate risk assessments. The disconnect between water planning and climate projections creates infrastructure vulnerabilities that could undermine long-term resilience efforts.

Provincial climate approaches

Provincial water policies show variable integration with climate imperatives. Punjab’s Climate Change Policy (2018) and water policy demonstrate alignment in adaptation objectives, with interventions focusing primarily on flood management and drought-resilient infrastructure. Sindh’s approach emphasises coastal protection and delta rehabilitation. Sindh faces particular challenges from sea-level rise, with climate models projecting inundation of substantial agricultural lands by 2050 if adaptation measures prove insufficient.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has achieved the strongest climate-water policy integration, with its Climate Change Policy (2022) and Water Act showing alignment in target indicators and institutional arrangements. The province has focused on flood-resilient infrastructure and watershed protections in mountainous regions. The weakest climate-water policy coherence is in Balochistan, where water policy objectives connect inadequately to climate change despite the province facing the most severe climate vulnerability. Drought frequency has increased significantly since 2000, yet climate-resilient water harvesting initiatives remain severely underfunded, leaving communities increasingly vulnerable to intensifying water scarcity.

Water sector carbon footprint

The carbon footprint of Pakistan’s water sector remains under-assessed despite its significance. A collaborative study by United States Geological Survey and Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources estimates that water pumping, treatment and distribution account for approximately 17.5 million tonnes CO e annually—nearly 8 percent of national emissions. Irrigation pumping alone contributes 9.2 million tonnes CO e, primarily from diesel and electrical pumps drawing from declining aquifers.

This carbon intensity reflects inefficient infrastructure and energy management throughout the water sector. Antiquated pumping systems with low efficiency ratings are common across irrigation networks. Municipal water utilities operate with energy intensity approximately 2.8 times higher than international best practice benchmarks. Wastewater treatment facilities, where they exist, contribute additional emissions through untapped methane releases estimated at 1.8 million tonnes CO e annually.

Mitigation opportunities remain largely unexplored. Unlike similar economies, Pakistan has not integrated water sector decarbonisation into its climate strategy despite clear co-benefits for both adaptation and mitigation objectives.

Emerging climate-resilient technologies

Technological innovation offers significant potential for climate-water resilience, though adoption remains limited. Remote sensing and climate analytics have demonstrated substantial value in pilot applications. The Punjab Irrigation Department has integrated satellite-based crop water requirement modelling with climate projections in three districts, reducing water consumption while maintaining agricultural productivity despite temperature increases. Similar approaches could reduce systemwide irrigation demand by an estimated 30 percent according to International Water Management Institute research. The incentive to reduce water consumption, however, cannot work without meaningful water pricing instruments.

Climate-informed early warning systems have proven highly effective where implemented. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s integration of meteorological forecasting with hydrological monitoring started reducing flood-related economic losses in covered watersheds during 2022 extreme rainfall events. The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s seasonal climate forecasting capabilities have improved dramatically but remain disconnected from water allocation decision processes in most irrigation commands.

Water-smart agricultural technologies have shown substantial climate resilience benefits in field trials. Drip irrigation combined with climate-informed cropping schedules increased water productivity while reducing climate vulnerability in Punjab demonstration sites according to FAO evaluations. Climate-resilient water infrastructure designs incorporating flexible operating parameters for changing hydrological conditions have been tested in recent projects but lack standardisation in design guidelines.

Reform pathways

Addressing Pakistan’s water-climate challenges requires transformative approaches. Priority interventions should focus on institutional restructuring of water agencies to mainstream climate considerations at operational levels. This requires modifications to organisational structures, capacity building for climate risk assessment and integration of meteorological services with water management functions.

Climate-resilient water infrastructure should prioritise flexibility and adaptability rather than traditional fixed designs. This includes natural water retention in upper watersheds, managed aquifer recharge in middle basins and coastal protection in delta regions—approaches aligned with the latest IPCC guidance on climate-resilient water infrastructure.

The economic case for climate-water integration is compelling. The Ministry of Planning assessments indicate that every rupee invested in climate-resilient water infrastructure yields Rs 7 to Rs 9 in avoided damage and economic benefits. Conversely, the World Bank estimates that climate inaction in the water sector could cost Pakistan 2.7-3.8 percent of GDP annually by 2050, underscoring the urgency of mainstreaming climate considerations in water governance.

Chaired by the prime minister, National Water Council is the apex body for implementing the National Water Policy. It is mandated to oversee policy implementation, including water resource management, transboundary disputes and climate resilience, as well as coordinate federal-provincial efforts to address water scarcity, infrastructure gaps and interprovincial disputes (e.g., Indus River allocation). The council can issue directives for sustainable water governance and infrastructure development.

The National Water Council has met only once since it was constituted on April 24, 2018, during the policy’s approval under then prime minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. The council’s membership remains incomplete and the Ministry of Water Resources has failed to convene subsequent meetings, revealing implementation gaps due to political inertia and lack of follow-up. Key challenges include the absence of a dedicated secretariat and funding mechanism for the council.

The writer is an Islamabad-based expert on climate change and water governance. He can be reached at atauqeersheikh@gmail.com