holay, that all time classic Hindi movie, has this memorable dialogue by its villain Gabbar Singh:Gaonwalo, Gabbar kay taap say tumhein aik hi aadmi bacha sakta hai, aik hi aadmi…khud Gabbar. (O villagers, only one man can save you from the heat of Gabbar, only one man…Gabbar himself). For the past few years, the states that have not been ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party, which is ruling at the Centre, have been facing this heat. In many election campaigns, candidates running on BJP nomination have been repeatedly (and openly) threatening supposedly hostile voters and constituencies using that logic. Cases are being filed and heard in state High Courts as well as the Supreme Court where opposition ruled states have repeatedly complained of not being allowed to function thanks to repeated interference by the Centre, leading to unprecedented constitutional crisss. That Gabbar logic seems to have come of age with the fall of AAP government in Delhi.

When general elections last year left the ruling BJP visibly gasping for breath, many saw it as a triumph of a resilient democracy that India was proving to be. I was one of the people who celebrated that on these very pages. The fact that the BJP held on to power with some key allies (who, not long ago, had opposed its communal politics) didn’t worry too many people. The fact that the government retained most of the old faces and continued to crack down on civil society among other signals of the business as usual didn’t worry too many people either. Maybe it was just plain relief after 10 dreadful, long years of brute majoritarian politics to see the party stuttering at the hustings.

The opposition did think it had gained new ground with their largely-united performance, and had a great opportunity to go after a shaky BJP. Many questions still being raised from the margins about possible voter disenfranchisement and more than usual change in the final number of votes declared by the Election Commission were largely put aside and opposition did go after the new government at least in the parliament. Hence what followed came as a surprise. In less than a year since then, out of five major elections including Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP has won three. In two places (Haryana and Maharashtra) they won, they had suffered badly barely a few months ago. In Delhi, they defeated a formidable leader like Arvind Kejriwal who despite losing Lok Sabha elections in alliance with Congress, had kept them at bay over the last 10 plus years through his Aam Admi Party. The two places where the BJP lost – in Jharkhand despite keeping Chief Minister Hemant Soren in a prison for months; and Kashmir, despite its machinations to break every opposition party including the National Conference led by Omat Abdullah - pale in face of the three other significant victories.

In less than a year since then, out of five major elections including Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP has won three. In two places they won, they had suffered badly barely a few months ago. In Delhi, they defeated a formidable leader like Arvind Kejriwal.

How do we interpret these recent BJP victories? It is interesting that both Haryana and adjacent Delhi seem to have had Kejriwal impact and as the pundits say, the reconfigured caste impact. Kejriwal, like Hemant Soren was put behind bars along with his key colleagues and let out on bail just before Haryana elections. The move seems to have worked against the continuity of the larger opposition alliance and despite Congress being a favourite, the new non-Jat, non-Dalit represented by the other middling castes seem to have helped the BJP back into power against all predictions of voter fatigue. Delhi seems to have gone down the same path now with no AAP-Congress alliance in sight. Significantly, the vote gap between the AAP and the BJP was just about 2 percentage points. Moreover, in at least 13 constituencies, Congress candidates’ share of votes (a distant third) was more than what the AAP lost by to the BJP. This seems to have been the deciding factor. Against all other explanations like the BJP exploiting the corruption charges against Kejriwal and his colleagues; AAP’s non-performance on the urban infrastructure; a middle class-friendly central budget right on the eve of state elections; and the final argument of the benefits of ‘a double engine sarkar’ with the same party ruling the Centre and the terriroty, the tactical loss incurred due to fall of opposition alliance seems to have weighed in much more heavily.

There seems to be an additional factor of completely dysfunctional AAP government thanks to a hell-bent Centre, which through its lieutenant governor and repeated change in the laws, made it impossible for them to do whatever they were doing i.e. delivering basic goods and services. Delhi’s populace seems to have eventually given in to this blatant public blackmailing by the BJP ruled Centre.

Maharashtra was a distinct case altogether. The BJP had suffered badly there during last general elections and the opposition was buoyant. It had some national level powerful leaders like Sharad Pawar and a rainbow coalition with Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thakrey), Congress all fighting in an alliance. And yet, when the results came, they were so sweeping in favour of the BJP-ruled alliance and once again like Haryana, so counter-intuitive that opposition went to town accusing the ruling alliance and Election Commission of wrongdoing.

It has come out only recently that between the last general elections and the recent state elections, the number of voters shot up by over 4 million. This seems to have played a decisive factor as alleged by the Congress. Even though this sudden jump in voter numbers in several elections as declared by election commission has made headlines repeatedly, not much seems to have come of it. There’s also the now often-repeated charge of manipulation of electronic voting machines across elections.

In the end, three clear factors seem to be working to help the BJP run away with the mandate. One, a clearly evident influencing of all institutions, including media, election commission, judiciary and the bureaucracy which are refusing to show spine (see latest report on top BJP leaders engaging in repeated hate speech with impunity); second, the recurrent collapse of opposition alliance where they are back to fighting each other clearly benefitting the BJP; and third, the same Gabbar formula and the internalised logic of Gabbar syndrome by the voting masses.

The writer has been in the development sector for more than a decade. He currently works with an international non-governmental organisation based in Delhi. He may be reached at avinashcold@gmail.com