he relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is a tangled mess. Its Gordian knot of historical grievances, persistent security concerns and deep-seated differences. It is a story as old as time with roots stretching back decades, if not centuries. Millions of Pakistani citizens in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan share ethnic, cultural, geographical, linguistic and religious identities with the people inhabiting in the east and south of Afghanistan.

The 1893 Durand Line remains a sticking point. For many Pashtuns, who straddle this line, it is a colonial relic that disregards their shared heritage. To make matters worse, many Afghans accuse Pakistan of interfering in their internal affairs, supporting anti-government factions, providing safe havens for militant groups and generally wielding undue influence. Trust is in short supply. Many in Pakistan are weary of the irredentist claims by governments of Afghanistan. Pakistan is also worried about hostile Indian influence in Afghanistan. The recent friction between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been on account of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan safe havens in Afghanistan from which terrorist attacks are launched in Pakistan.

The security concerns have complicated the situation. Groups like the TTP, the ISK and Al Qaeda exploit the porous border and tribal connections to recruit fighters and launch attacks on both sides of the Durand Line. Civilians bear the brunt of this violence. Meanwhile, the sheer scale of the refugee crisis has strained resources and fuelled resentment. It’s a humanitarian crisis layered onto an already volatile situation.

Culturally, things are far from simple. Despite common ethnic and linguistic roots, variation exist between Pashtuns on either side of the Durand Line. This, combined with historical baggage and security issues, creates a palpable sense of distance and mistrust. Decades of conflict have eroded goodwill, hindering cooperation on crucial issues like counter-terrorism, border management and economic development.

A multi-faceted approach is needed for meaningful progress. Afghanistan can open a fresh dialogue about the Durand Line. However, before that can happen, strengthened counter-terrorism cooperation is vital. sBoosting economic development and connectivity along the border can improve lives and reduce the appeal of militancy. People-to-people exchanges and cultural programmes can help bridge the cultural divide. Finally, addressing the needs of Afghan refugees and ensuring their dignified repatriation is paramount. Building trust is never simple; it’s a marathon, not a sprint. This may benefit from the focal paradigm of regional cooperation and trade between
South Asia and Central Asia.

Security concerns only complicate the situation. Groups like the TTP the ISK and Al Qaeda exploit the porous border and historic tribal connections to recruit fighters and launch attacks on both sides of the Durand Line.

The emergence of a northern block in Afghanistan adds another layer of complexity. Such a block could act as a counterweight to the Taliban, who have come to power with the facilitation of regional and international powers. However, divisions within the northern block and potential resistance to the Taliban pose significant challenges to peace and stability. Pakistan faces a tricky balancing act.

The threat of a resurgent Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) also looms large. While the Taliban have suppressed the IS-K to a degree, the group can re-emerge quickly. Kabul’s governance challenges, Afghanistan’s dire economic situation and regional instability could create ideal conditions for IS-K’s resurgence and destabilise the region. Combating this threat requires that the Taliban improve governance, strengthen their counter-terrorism capabilities and address the root causes of extremism. International support is crucial. A resurgence of violence will pose a significant threat to Central Asia, potentially leading to increased security threats, regional instability and a humanitarian crisis. Central Asian states are responding with enhanced security measures and regional cooperation, but limited resources and internal challenges hinder their efforts.

Pakistan’s relations with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are also dependent on the Afghan situation. Shared concerns about extremism are balanced by historical rivalries and competing interests. Growing cooperation on security and economic ties is promising, but geopolitical competition and internal challenges remain.

Given their interest in regional stability, China and Russia could play a crucial role in easing tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both countries desire stability in Afghanistan. A breeding ground for extremism threatens their security. Counter-terrorism is a shared priority. Economic development is also a key; a prosperous Afghanistan can be a more stable Afghanistan. Chin and Russia have already supported initiatives boosting regional trade and connectivity. Their diplomatic influence, regional cooperation initiatives and focus on addressing the root causes of instability offer a glimmer of hope. However, navigating competing interests and fostering trust remains a monumental task. It’s a long-term endeavour, but a necessary one.

The writer is the central information secretary of Awami National Party. He can be reached at anpspox@gmail.com.