ver since it came into power following the February 2024 general elections, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has walked a tightrope. The party was aware of the risks involved in taking the responsibility of running the affairs of the country at a time when the economy was at its lowest ebb. It had to take some of the most difficult decisions for economic stability and watch as that ruined its reputation. The masses have suffered greatly under the burden of price-hike and joblessness. However, inflation has come down recently after reaching its highest point in history and most economic indicators are finally showing improvement. Nevertheless, PML-N worries are not going away soon.

Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has himself said several times that “economic growth will start only when investment comes in.” This has become a serious problem for the government. Many believe that investment is linked to political stability.

Talks with Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf broke down even before they had begun in earnest. The PTI team had two major demands: release of all political prisoners, including its leader Imran Khan, and formation of judicial commissions to probe the May 9 and November 26 violence. The PTI started and ended its initiative on the same point. The government seemed unable to offer anything the PTI was interested in.

While the talks were formally on, Imran Khan kept hitting the establishment, especially blaming the army chief, Gen Asim Munir, for the victimisation of PTI leaders, who he said had been put behind bars on fake charges, and the denial of the party’s popular mandate in the February 8 elections. He has been warning that there will be no economic stability amidst political instability thus created by the establishment.

Imran Khan has persistently said that talks with a ‘puppet regime’ are futile. Instead, he has asked for negotiation with the ‘real’ powers. At the same time, he has been highly critical of the establishment.

A meeting between Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and PTI chairman Barrister Gohar and Gen Asim Munir in Peshawar had stirred quite a buzz on the political horizon. Imran Khan was quick to call it a “welcome move.” Some political analysts had jumped to the conclusion that the Shahbaz Sharif-led government may have to make way for a PTI-led setup. However, the buzz didn’t last long as the ISPR made it clear that the much-talked about meeting was only about security issues in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and that no political matters were discussed.

It seems that the PML-N has managed to convince the establishment that they have no better option. Despite some rumours to the effect, there are no signs of a rift between the PML-N government and the establishment. 

Ever since the government took charge, it has faced multiple challenges, including on account of rumours spread by politicians having links with the establishment. Some of them would openly ‘predict’ the fall of the PML-N-led government at the Centre. Some hinted at the possibility of Bilawal Bhutto replacing Shahbaz Sharif as the premier.

During talks with the PTI, the government showed little interest in meeting the opposition demands. It appeared that its strategy was to merely keep its biggest political rival engaged.

Despite all fears and threats to its government, the PML-N seems confident that no other leader can replace Shahbaz Sharif. The confidence is rooted in the belief that as premier he is in ‘perfect alignment’ with the military’s top brass. PML-N leaders claim that the prime minister is working closely with the military to achieve the short- and medium-term governance goals.

The party realises that the steps it took to meet the IMF conditions have a political cost. Though the inflation has come down; trade balance has improved; foreign reserves are stable; remittances from overseas Pakistanis are on the rise; and steps are being taken to cut government expenditures, the burden of taxes on the masses, especially the salaried class, and the lack of employment opportunities, have pushed many to the wall. For many, the gap between the income and essential expenditures has widened.

The PML-N seems to have believed that it could regain some of the political space it had lost in the Punjab after accepting the ‘offer’ to form a government after the historic vote of no-confidence against then prime minister, Imran Khan. The party decided to launch Maryam Nawaz Sharif as Punjab’s chief minister. She has initiated a host of projects in health, education and agriculture sectors. Her Clean Punjab and anti-encroachment drives have been received well across the province. She also has the support and guidance of the establishment.

The PML-N has apparently managed to convince the establishment that they have no better option. Despite some rumours to the effect, there are no signs of a rift between the PML-N government and the establishment. Today, most political analysts believe that Shahbaz Sharif is the most suitable politician for premiership in the establishment’s reckoning. With Pakistan’s traditional foreign friends backing the present regime, it seems that plans are in place to persist with the current setup until there is some major political upheaval.

The writer is a senior broadcast journalist. He has worked with several news channels in Pakistan