akistan is the world’s fifth largest country in terms of the size of its population, although area-wise, it stands thirty-third. At the time of the secession of its most populated province, East Pakistan, in 1971, the country was inhabited by 130 million: West Pakistan had 60 million people and East Pakistan 70 million people. Currently, Bangladesh’s population is around 170 million, whereas Pakistan’s is reaching 241 million.

A significant indicator is population density. At 302 people per square kilometre, Pakistan’s population density is twice that of China (152). Every year, nearly 4.5 million people are added to Pakistan’s already large population.

By comparison, Japan has a zero population growth rate currently. Some Eastern European countries have negative growth rates, meaning that the death rates exceed the birth rates.

An important aspect of the population situation is the rural-urban comparison. Pakistan has witnessed a rapid increase in the share of its urban population in recent decades. As successive governments were unable to improve the living conditions in rural areas, the upper-middle-class and middle-class segments of the population have increasingly moved to urban areas. As a result, the population of large and medium cities in Pakistan has surged exponentially, putting pressure on the maintenance of quality of life. It has badly affected the availability of basic necessities in the cities. For instance, 70 percent of the urban population and 55 percent of the rural population now lack access to safe drinking water.

The current per capita availability of water is around 1,015 cubic metres. It was 5,000 cubic metres in 1951. As per international standards, less than 1,000 cubic metres of water availability represents an acute shortage. The red line seems to have been touched in the country if not crossed. This will have disastrous consequences not only for the drinking water availability but also for availability of water for agriculture. The shortage may result in food insecurity.

Increasing population and extraction of mineral resources have reduced the Earth to a ‘smaller’ and poorer place. The global population increase has resulted in disastrous climate change and ecological collapse. Rising temperatures, the shrinking of polar ice caps, increasing deforestation, disease, wars, famines, lack of water and extinction of animal species are signs of this. Stephen Hawking predicted in his excellent book Brief Answers to the Big Questions (2018) that “by the year 2600 the world’s population would be standing shoulder to shoulder and the electricity consumption would make the Earth glow red hot.”

Due to the massive rise in population, besides the water shortfall and food insecurity, Pakistan faces the crisis of a shortage of nearly 12 million houses.

The fertility rate in the country, 3.6, is one of the highest in the world. The current population growth rate is 2.55 percent. Almost 5.6 million children are born every year, with an average of 3.6 children per woman. These figures translate directly into increasing poverty, rising illiteracy, poor living standards, lack of health and education facilities, massive unemployment and food insecurity.

Almost 5.6 million children are born every year, with an average of 3.6 children per woman. These figures translate directly into increasing poverty, rising illiteracy, poor living standards, lack of health and education facilities, massive unemployment and food insecurity.

It took 1650 years for the world population to double from 250 million in 01 AD to 500 million in 1650 AD. However, it took merely 48 years for it to double from 4 billion in 1974 to 8 billion in November 2022. The population has doubled in less than 50 years.

The United Nations invited member countries in 1974 for the first intergovernmental conference on population growth. At that time, according to National Geographic, only three metropolitan areas were home to 10 million people or more—New York, Tokyo, and Mexico City. Today, there are more than thirty, including Karachi.

More than half the population increase projected for the next quarter century is expected to come from just eight countries located in Asia and Africa. According to National Geographic, “these are Pakistan, the Philippines, India, Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria and Congo.”

When biologist Paul Ehrlich wrote his dire book The Population Bomb in 1968, the world had nearly 3.5 billion people. The number has more than doubled by now and is expected to reach nine billion in 2036 and touch 9.7 billion by the middle of this century.

Various surveys indicate that by the year 2050, Pakistan is projected to reach 403 million. Given its high population density, Pakistan is increasingly becoming a population bomb, in the words of Ehlrich.

It is high time for us to think about the policy options that may provide a means of slowing down population growth in our country. The scarcity of resources has been further aggravated over the last couple of years. If the population growth goes on unchecked, it will have irreparable and immense consequences for Pakistan and its people.

Dr Muhammad Abrar Zahoor has a PhD in history from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. He heads the History Department at University of Sargodha. He has worked as a research fellow at Royal Holloway College, University of London. He can be reached at abrar.zahoor@hotmail.com. His X handle: @AbrarZahoor1

Dr Omar Riaz is an associate professor of geography at University of Sargodha. He can be reached at omarriazpk@gmail.com. His X handle: @DrOmarRiaz